Alert archive / Washington / River Flood Warnings in 2021

River Flood Warning 61, NWS Seattle, WA

November 12, 2021Snohomish County, Washington

NWS Seattle, WA issued this river flood warning at Nov 12, 2021, 3:39 AM PST for Snohomish County, Washington. It took effect at Nov 12, 2021, 11:27 AM PST. It was in force for 16 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 12, 2021, 3:39 AM PST (11:39 UTC)
In effect from: Nov 12, 2021, 11:27 AM PST
Expired: Nov 13, 2021, 3:25 AM PST
In force: 16 hr
Issued by: NWS Seattle, WA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Snohomish County, WA

The radar

The Seattle radar (KATX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Stillaguamish River at Arlington (ARLW1).

Action stage: 12.5 ft
Minor stage: 14 ft
Moderate stage: 17.5 ft
Major stage: 19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 12167400, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

537 
WGUS46 KSEW 121139
FLWSEW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Washington...

  Cowlitz River At Randle affecting Lewis County.

  Carbon River Near Fairfax affecting Pierce County.

...The National Weather Service in Seattle WA has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Washington...

  Stillaguamish River At Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

  Skagit River Near Concrete affecting Skagit County.

  Skykomish River Near Gold Bar affecting Snohomish County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in Washington...

  Cowlitz River At Packwood affecting Lewis County.

.Heavy rainfall will continue today, especially through the morning 
hours, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain likely, with locally 
higher amounts possible. Rain will begin to taper from north to 
south through the afternoon and evening hours, with rivers 
continuing to respond the heavy precipitation into the weekend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this morning at 1145 AM PST.

&&


WAC061-121945-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0060.211112T1726Z-211113T1713Z/
/GLBW1.1.ER.211112T1726Z.211113T0000Z.211113T0512Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skykomish River Near Gold Bar.

* WHEN...From this morning to late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, the Skykomish River will cause minor 
  flooding of low pasture lands and some roads along the river...
  including Ben Howard road...Index-Galena Rd and Tualco Loop Rd.  A 
  stage of 16 feet on the Skykomish River corresponds to a Phase 3 
  in the Snohomish County flood program.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 AM PST Friday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this
    morning to 16.2 feet late this afternoon. It will then fall
    below flood stage late this evening to 10.5 feet and begin
    rising again late tomorrow evening. It will rise to 13.6 feet
    Sunday afternoon. It will then fall again and remain below
    flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.2 feet on 11/09/1989.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4774 12150 4780 12173 4780 12196 4793 12197
      4794 12169 4787 12147


$$

WAC061-121945-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0061.211112T2007Z-211113T1634Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.211112T2007Z.211113T0000Z.211113T0433Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Stillaguamish River At Arlington.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood program.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:10 AM PST Friday the stage was 10.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon to a crest of 14.7 feet late this afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage this evening.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.6 feet on 11/26/2009.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240
      4823 12224 4824 12214


$$

WAC057-121945-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0062.211112T2125Z-000000T0000Z/
/CONW1.2.ER.211112T2125Z.211113T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skagit River Near Concrete.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to 
  Sedro Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit 
  corresponds to a Phase 3 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 AM PST Friday the stage was 22.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 31.9 feet
    late this evening.
  - Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    31.4 feet on 10/28/1967.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227
      4856 12185 4850 12160


$$

WAC041-121945-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0059.211112T1139Z-211113T1212Z/
/PACW1.2.ER.211112T1137Z.211112T1800Z.211113T0312Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cowlitz River At Packwood.

* WHEN...From early this morning to late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 11.0 feet, the Cowlitz River will cause flooding from 
  the upper reaches of the river downstream through Packwood...
  inundating roads...pasture lands...and some farms.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 AM PST Friday the stage was 9.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early this
    morning to 12.0 feet late this morning. It will then fall
    below flood stage this evening to 5.1 feet and begin rising
    again early Sunday morning. It will rise to 5.4 feet late
    Sunday morning. It will then fall again and remain below
    flood stage.
  - Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.9 feet on 01/31/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4664 12146 4653 12160 4646 12173 4660 12182
      4667 12173 4674 12164


$$

WAC041-121945-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0058.211112T1221Z-211114T1454Z/
/RAWW1.3.ER.211112T1221Z.211113T0000Z.211114T0554Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cowlitz River At Randle.

* WHEN...Until Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, the Cowlitz River will cause major 
  flooding from the vicinity of Randle downstream through Riffe 
  Lake...with dangerous inundation of many roads including US 
  Highway 12...residential and commercial areas...and farms.  
  Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...
  tributaries...and other streams within and near the Cowlitz River 
  Basin.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:15 AM PST Friday the stage was 16.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early this morning to a crest of 22.7 feet late this
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    22.5 feet on 01/31/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4645 12180 4645 12194 4640 12219 4654 12220
      4659 12198 4661 12183


$$

WAC053-121945-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0057.211112T1514Z-211113T1500Z/
/FFXW1.2.ER.211112T1514Z.211112T1800Z.211113T0600Z.NO/
339 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Carbon River Near Fairfax.

* WHEN...From this morning to tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 13.5 feet, the Carbon River will flood the 
  residential areas near Crocker and sections of the Carbon River Rd

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 3:00 AM PST Friday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this morning
    to 14.9 feet late this morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage late this evening to 9.2 feet and begin rising again
    late tomorrow evening. It will rise to 9.8 feet late Sunday
    morning. It will then fall again and remain below flood
    stage.
  - Flood stage is 13.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.5 feet on 11/25/2014.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4695 12184 4700 12210 4712 12224 4714 12222
      4710 12204 4700 12180


$$

CK

3 follow-up statements

816 
WGUS86 KSEW 121927
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1127 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Stillaguamish River At Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 730 PM PST.

&&


WAC061-130330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0061.211112T1927Z-211113T1621Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.211112T1729Z.211113T0000Z.211113T0421Z.NO/
1127 AM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Stillaguamish River At Arlington.

* WHEN...From this morning to tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood program.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:55 AM PST Friday the stage was 14.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 10:55 AM PST Friday was 14.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise below flood stage
    this evening and continue falling to 15.2 feet late this
    afternoon. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    15.0 feet on 11/18/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240
      4823 12224 4824 12214


$$

Wolcott

294 
WGUS86 KSEW 130327
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
727 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Stillaguamish River At Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

.Rainfall has ended and this will allow the Stillaguamish river to 
crest and then begin to recede tonight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued by late tonight at 545 AM PST.

&&


WAC061-131330-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-211113T1517Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.211112T1729Z.211113T0444Z.211113T0703Z.NO/
727 PM PST Fri Nov 12 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Stillaguamish River At Arlington.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will cause minor 
  flooding mainly in the Silvana area...including over Pioneer 
  Highway and along Norman Rd.  A stage of 16 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood program.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 6:55 PM PST Friday the stage was 14.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 6:55 PM PST Friday was 14.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is cresting now and will begin to fall
    later tonight. The river will fall below flood stage late
    tonight to 4.6 feet and then begin rising late tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.6 feet on 11/26/2009.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240
      4823 12224 4824 12214


$$

JBB

055 
WGUS86 KSEW 131125
FLSSEW

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
325 AM PST Sat Nov 13 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Stillaguamish River At Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

.Rainfall has ended and this has allowed the Stillaguamish river to 
crest and recede below flood stage.

WAC061-131230-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-211113T1125Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.211112T1729Z.211116T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
325 AM PST Sat Nov 13 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Stillaguamish River At Arlington.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:55 AM PST Saturday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will fall to 4.7 feet this evening.
    Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240
      4823 12224 4824 12214


$$

45

The office that day

Everything else NWS Seattle, WA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 11, 4:00 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Pierce	37 hr
Nov 11, 4:04 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	King	37 hr
Nov 11, 7:57 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	41 hr
Nov 11, 8:20 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Pierce	30 hr
Nov 11, 8:52 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	4 days
Nov 11, 8:56 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Lewis	15 hr
Nov 12, 3:39 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	22 hr
Nov 12, 3:39 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Skagit	26 hr
Nov 12, 6:38 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	King	45 hr
Nov 12, 11:56 AM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Grays Harbor, Thurston	40 hr
Nov 12, 1:23 PM PST	Areal Flood Advisory	SEW	King, Snohomish	3 hr
Nov 12, 1:40 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Pierce	15 hr
Nov 12, 1:46 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	41 hr
Nov 12, 1:46 PM PST	River Flood Warning	SEW	Snohomish	23 hr
Nov 12, 2:24 PM PST	Gale Watch	SEW		12 hr
Nov 12, 2:24 PM PST	Small Craft Advisory	SEW		4 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Washington, 2021 Every river flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.