Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

825 
WWUS41 KRNK 100348
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1048 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...Wintry Precipitation to Begin Wednesday Afternoon...

VAZ020-WVZ507-508-101600-
/O.CON.KRNK.WS.A.0004.210210T1700Z-210211T1500Z/
Bath-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Hot Springs, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
1048 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of one to 3 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Bath County. In West Virginia, Western 
  Greenbrier and Eastern Greenbrier Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Additional wintry precipitation is expected
  Thursday night into Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/blacksburg.

&&

$$

211 
WWUS41 KRNK 100840
WSWRNK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
340 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...Wintry Precipitation Expected Today into Thursday Morning...

VAZ020-WVZ507-508-101645-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0004.210210T1700Z-210211T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.210210T1700Z-210211T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0005.210211T1800Z-210213T0000Z/
Bath-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
Including the cities of Hot Springs, Lewisburg, 
White Sulphur Springs, Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle
340 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation
  expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches
  and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total
  snow and sleet accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice 
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Bath County. In West Virginia, Eastern 
  Greenbrier and Western Greenbrier Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon today to 1 
  PM EST Thursday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday 
  afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow, sleet or ice accumulations via email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or by calling the National Weather Service
toll free at...1...866...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Leave a message with
your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You
can also post your report to National Weather Service Blacksburg
Facebook page and on Twitter. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/blacksburg.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

VAZ019-024-035-101645-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WW.Y.0013.210210T1700Z-210211T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0005.210211T1800Z-210213T0000Z/
Alleghany VA-Rockbridge-Amherst-
Including the cities of Clifton Forge, Covington, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, and Amherst
340 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation
  expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch
  and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total
  snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice
  accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Alleghany VA, Rockbridge and Amherst Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from noon today to 1 
  PM EST Thursday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday 
  afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving. 

Please report snow, sleet or ice accumulations via email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or by calling the National Weather Service
toll free at...1...866...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Leave a message with
your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You
can also post your report to National Weather Service Blacksburg
Facebook page and on Twitter. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/blacksburg.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

VAZ010>014-016>018-022-023-032>034-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-
101645-
/O.NEW.KRNK.WS.A.0005.210211T1800Z-210213T0000Z/
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Including the cities of Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, 
Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Roanoke, Salem, 
Fincastle, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Martinsville, Danville, 
Lynchburg, Appomattox, South Boston, Keysville, Bluefield, 
Hinton, Hix, and Union
340 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch, and locally higher possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west 
  central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/blacksburg.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
113 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weather disturbances will bring unsettled weather
to our area for mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EST Tuesday...

Little or no precipitation in the near term.

Two systems are skirting the area today with little or no
impact. Low pressure off the southeast coast is producing clouds
and some patchy light rain/drizzle for eastern VA/NC. Aside for
some morning cloudiness and drizzle across southside VA into
the piedmont of NC, expecting clearing this afternoon as the
system moves farther off the coast. A stationary front just to
our northwest was the other issue bringing slight to low chance
pops of mainly rain showers to the mountains, possibly some
snow at the higher elevations. QPF for our area from this
feature is pretty miniscule... a trace to a few hundredths
progged from southeast WV into the Grayson Highlands. With
sunshine anticipated along and east of the Blue Ridge this
afternoon, expect a nice bounce in temperature with highs in the
mid-upper 50s. Clouds in the west may also thin this afternoon,
with an opportunity for temperatures to reach into the 40s for
the mountains.  All in all, not a bad day.

Tonight, the stalled front to our northwest will get a nudge
from the arctic high over the northcentral U.S., the front
shifting southeast of us, but not too far, with mid and upper
flow zonal holding it close. Next system approaches the TN
Valley toward dawn Wed, though best lift expected to reside
further west so keeping precip chances out of the forecast for
tonight.

Expect clouds to increase again tonight ahead of the next system.

Low temperatures should be running above normal given clouds and
warm advection, with upper 20s to mid 30s west, to mid to upper 30s
east.

Forecast confidence is good today, maintaining the mainly fair
dry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

Confidence is increasing for a wintry mix of precipitation during
Thursday night.

High pressure over southern Canada will begin to spill over east of
the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday and begin to wedge southward.
Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone should develop from the central
Mississippi River Valley toward the Mid Atlantic. Moisture will
begin to push eastward during Wednesday and persist through
Wednesday night into Thursday. Because of lingering cold air across
the Interstate 64 corridor, a light wintry mix of precipitation may
take place with limited snow and ice accumulations. Locations
further south appear to just remain cold rain. QPF will become more
pronounced by Thursday as the flow aloft buckles due to an
approaching shortwave trough over Texas in the southern stream and
allows more moisture to be tapped from the Gulf of Mexico.

However, as the cold wedge strengthens east of the Blue Ridge,
temperatures will dip below freezing across a good chunk of
southwest Virginia by Thursday night. Confidence is increasing for a
wintry mix of precipitation, but it is too soon to think of any
headlines. Furthermore, the models are struggling to pinpoint how
strong this cold wedge will become with the ECMWF notably colder
than the GFS, so just a mention in the HWO is appropriate for now.
Notable discrepancies in ice accumulations have already appeared in
the ensemble guidance, so more refinement will be necessary with
later model runs. The baroclinic zone should move eastward toward
the coast by Friday and allow high pressure to briefly build from
the northwest during Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Tuesday...

An active weather pattern persists through this weekend into early
next week, but a lot of uncertainties remain.

The upper air pattern will feature two shortwave upper level troughs
by Saturday with one in the northern stream and the other in the
southern stream. Each will provide a baroclinic zone of moisture
that could try to phase together across the eastern United States,
but lots of uncertainty remains among the model solutions on if they
would accomplish a complete phasing. The ECMWF remains considerably
faster than the GFS with any moisture crossing overhead this
weekend, so it is best to take a compromise and keep chances of
precipitation throughout Saturday and Sunday given the relentless
wet trend in place across the Mid Atlantic. High pressure eventually
returns on Monday before another low pressure system emerges from
the Gulf Coast and spreads moisture northward by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday...

Expect mainly VFR through the rest of the day east of the Blue
Ridge. West of the Blue ridge, clouds will persist with MVFR
cigs vcnty of BLF/LWB and points west. Winds through the
afternoon and evening will be primarily out of the west.

There is a stationary front just northwest of the RNK CWA. This
front is expected to get a nudge to the south tonight, winds
shifting to the north, then northeast between 00-06Z, and then
coming around to the east Wednesday. This will result in a wedge
of cool stable air to infiltrate the area from the north tonight
and then lead to increasing low level stratus by early
Wednesday. Expecting mainy IFR conditions Wednesday into
Thursday as precipitation overspreads the area in the form of
rain and freezing rain reducing vsby to under 3SM attms.

High confidence in the forecast remaining primarily VFR this
evening, then lower confidence on timing of transistion to IFR
overnight.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Weather pattern is forecast to remain unsettled for the
remainder of the week with a persistent stream of moisture into
the forecast area, overrunning a frontal boundary that will be
nearly stationary across the region. Wintry precipitation is
favored along and north of a BLF-ROA-LYH line with the potential
for icing across southern WV/VA due to freezing rain, and an
accumulating snow for northern WV/VA and into MD/PA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KFCX radar is down for a few hours today, Feb 9th, for
maintenance.

The KFCX radar will be down for an extended period of time
beginning Feb 11th through about Feb 18th for a generator
replacement, and replacement other electrical components
associated the utility to generator powering of the facility.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...PM
EQUIPMENT...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
354 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022-032>034-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-100900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-
354 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A threat of winter precipitation arrives Thursday into early Friday.
At the moment, the main threat would be freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ019-020-023-024-035-WVZ507-508-100900-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Amherst-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
354 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wintry weather returns Wednesday into Friday, with the potential for
a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             4 NNE COLLIERSTOWN      37.82N 79.56W
02/07/2021  M6.5 INCH        ROCKBRIDGE         VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RAB