Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
227 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region this evening and stall just
east of the area until low pressure crosses the region on Thursday.
This pattern will keep isolated to scattered showers and storms in
our forecast through Thursday morning. High pressure will build into
the area by the end of the week and maintain a dry forecast into the
start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

...A cold front will cross the region overnight...

A cold front located from western TN northeast to central OH was
approaching the region. In advance of the front, low level winds
were experiencing a degree of convergence near the crest of the Blue
Ridge, and a lee side trough was establishing itself a little
farther west across the NC/VA Piedmont. We are still expecting the
bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity the remainder of this
afternoon to be situated around these features. As we progress into
the evening hours, eyes turn west to the approach of the cold front
and showers and storms associated with it.

Through the night we expect scattered showers and storms to continue
just head and along the front. By daybreak Thursday, the front is
expected to be east of the area, but slowing in response to an area
of low pressure heading northeast along it through the Carolinas.
This will have the influence of lingering precipitation over our
region through the morning hours, until the low can move east of the
area.

By Thursday afternoon, we expect that all associated precipitation
will be east of the region, and sky cover will be clearing from west
to east since the late morning.

Low temperatures tonight will average about five to ten degrees
above normal with highs on Thursday near, or slightly below normal.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday...

     Tranquil Weather Conditions with Seasonable Temperatures
Through the Period...

A large area of surface high pressure will settle over the
region through the period. This area of high pressure will be
just northwest of the region Friday, over the region Saturday,
and then east of the area by Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper trough
across the eastern U.S. will deamplify and lift northeast out of
the area. By the weekend, essentially a broad subtropical ridge
will envelope much of the U.S. from west coast to east coast.
This will provide a dry weather pattern for the area.

A tropical depression moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico
appears at this point to remain trapped by the mid-latitude
ridge and track east to northeast along the northeastern Gulf
Coast and across southern GA/FL and at this point have little to
impact on our forecast area. Thus the period should remain
precipitation free.

850mb temperatures will drop into the single digits at the
beginning of the period which will allow night time temperatures
to fall back into the 40s and 50s with daytime high temperatures
mostly in the 70s west to 80s east, although some of the higher
elevations and locations such as Burke's Garden may only see
highs near 70 for a couple of days.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities (~0%)
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

     Quiet and Mostly Dry Weather Conditions to Continue with
Above Normal Temperatures...

A broad subtropical upper ridge will remain over the region
through the period from west coast to east coast. This will
generally hold at bay any change of air mass or cooler weather
conditions. On the other hand, a large blob of hot air,
currently located across the western U.S. will begin to spread
eastward, albeit in a modified fashion. 850mb temperatures will
rise closer to +20C by the Sunday and into early next week. This
will allow daytime high temperatures to rise well into the 80s
and even approach 90 degrees in a few spots across the Piedmont.
Guidance temperatures looked way too warm for this time of year,
so these were reduced by several degrees across the board. In
general this entire summer, the GFS especially has over forecast
temperatures in the extended periods, so I generally lowered max
temperatures one category. On the other hand, low temperatures
looked reasonable. On average, min temperatures will be 10-15
degrees above normal with max temperatures about 10 degrees
above normal through the period.

Rain chances should remain near 0% through the period with any
potential chance for rain coming a day or two after the end of
this period, namely Wed-Thu of next week. Even so, only the GFS
is advertising much of anything even then at this point.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate to High Confidence in Wind Direction and Speeds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mix of MVFR and low end VFR ceilings will continue across the
region this afternoon, along with developing isolated showers
and storms. Visibilities should remain VFR except for brief
visits to sub-VFR under the heaviest of the showers and storms.

Heading into and through the evening hours, isolated showers and
storms will continue as a cold front passes into and across the
area. Ceilings will trend lower across the mountains in the wake
of the cold front with the IFR/MVFR range common in areas around
or a little after midnight. Pockets of fog and stratus will also
develop, especially within the river valleys and those areas
that receive the moderate to heavy rain this afternoon and
evening.

Scattered showers and storms will exit the region Thursday
morning from west to east, and ceilings and visibilities will
improve through mid-day.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate to high.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Other than some late night/early morning patchy mountain/valley
fog, VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Monday as
high pressure settles over the region.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is high.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1022 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>016-018>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-
091430-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
1022 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
early evening. A few of these storms may contain damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ003>005-019-020-VAZ017-032>035-043>045-091430-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Wilkes-Yadkin-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
1022 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
early evening. A few of these storms may contain damaging winds. Hail
may also accompany one or two of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ006-VAZ046-047-058-059-091430-
Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
1022 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
early evening. A few of these storms may contain damaging winds. Hail
may also accompany one or two of the storms. An isolated tornado is
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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