Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extends from central Pennsylvania into western
Kentucky. This front will slowly drift south tonight, stalling
over the central Mid-Atlantic Sunday. This front will become the
focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms the next several
days. In addition, remnants of Fred is also expected to track
into the Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday
which may provide as an additional source of rain for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening...
more expected Sunday.

A cold front extends from central PA to western KY. South of the
front the airmass was moisture laden with dewpoints in the 60s
to lower 70s. This in combination with the daytime heating has
allowed the atmosphere to percolate with the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The storms were becoming
more prolific with time and will trend upward in strength and
coverage until after peak heating.

Low level wind fields indicate convergence is taking place along
the cold front to our north, and within the lee trof east of
Appalachians from central VA into west-central NC. As storms
continue to evolve, expect strong to severe cores as combination
of MLCAPE of 2000 j/kg and DCAPE of near 1000 j/kg drive strong
updraft/downdraft combinations until loss of daytime heating.
Mean wind is a little stronger today due to increasing low/mid
level wind field ahead of the approaching cold front. This
should make for faster moving cells with a better chance for
cell organization. That said, there is also potential for these
storms to backbuild and train over the same area, so in addition
to the severe threat, there is a localized threat for
excessive rainfall threat compared to recent days.

Forecast reflects likely pops (60-75 percent-ish of receiving
at least 0.01 inch of rain) this evening over the foothills and
piedmont east of the Blue Ridge closer to the lee trof. West of
the Blue Ridge, pops are 50/50 or less per a weak downslope
northwesterly wind which is limiting deeper thermals there.
Similar to yesterday, this westerly wind may diminish at sunset
so areas west of the Blue Ridge may see more coverage late this
evening when the outflow boundaries from the storms east of the
Blue Ridge ripple back to the northwest.

For the overnight, the actual surface cold front is expected to
move southeast and into the forecast area. This should
introduce a northerly wind, more cloud cover, and cooler
temperatures. Not expecting the front to make it very far, maybe
into northern North Carolina before stalling Sunday. The 850 MB
front may never make it through the area at all, due to
blocking high pressure to the southeast. As such this will
maintain an atmosphere with high moisture content and provide a
convergence zone for additional showers and thunderstorms.

The forecast tonight into Sunday morning will reflect lingering
showers and a few storms. Once the front stalls expect
isentropic lift over the front to result in a greater coverage
of clouds and showers with embedded thunderstorms for Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night.

Today was the last of the heat...but not the humidity.
Temperatures tonight into Sunday will be cooler, but the high
moisture content of the atmosphere will still allow the humid
conditions to persist... lows tonight in the 60s to lower 70s
and daytime highs Sunday mainly in the 70s...maybe 80 for
Southside and the the NC piedmont if there are any breaks in the
cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Unsettled Weather Expected With Showers and Thunderstorms...

Surface high pressure over New England wedges south into the
Carolinas Sunday night. Under plenty of clouds with scattered
convection, low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning will
range from the upper 50s in the mountains to around 70 degrees in
the piedmont.

With the upper level ridge remaining off the Southeast Coast,
tropical moisture will overrun the wedge. The area will be deeper
into the wedge on Monday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue on Monday. Some of storms will contain locally heavy rains.
High temperatures Monday will vary from around 70 degrees in the
mountains to the mid 80s in the piedmont. Scattered convection will
continue Monday night with low temperatures in the upper 50s in the
mountains to around 70 degrees in the piedmont.

Refer to latest advisories from the NHC on Fred. The current path
was slower speed and further west. However,rain may gain intensity
Tuesday as remnants of Fred moves inland over the southeastern
states with surface winds increasing from the southeast along the
southern Blue Ridge ushering in deeper tropical moisture. With
widespread cloud cover, persistent cool air wedge, along with rain,
temperatures will run around 10F cooler than normal Tuesday.

Medium confidence for Short Term Forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Moisture Lingers Across Our Region Through Workweek...

Overall synoptic setup remains the same Tuesday night and into
Wednesday. Ridging in the Atlantic, surface high pressure to the
north and a weak stationary boundary still lingering within the
area. Remnants of Fred lifts northward and looking more likely to
track just to the west of the Appalachians. The NHC places remnants
of Fred in Tennessee Wednesday morning. (Check out the latest NHC
Statements on Fred.) Model guidance continues to differ on how fast
the remnants pull out of the region, but current thinking is
tropical moisture will linger through at least Wednesday night. This
should allow for some much-needed rainfall for the area. At this
time, we will have to monitor where the axis of heavier rain setup
for any water issues. The weather pattern towards the end of the
week shifts back towards a more typical summertime pattern with
daily afternoon convection.

Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for Wednesday.
Temperatures return to near normal on Thursday into Saturday.

Low to Medium confidence in Long Term Forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and evening. Confidence is moderate to high that
storm activity will impact all terminals along and just east of
the Blue Ridge at some point during the 19z/3PM and 00z/8PM
window. Passage of the front tonight will also introduce a
northeast to east wind which is expected to result in an MVFR
CIG. Front will then stall over the area with low cigs
persisting Sunday. Confidence is low with respect to how low the
cig/vsby will be for Sunday. A lot may depend on how widespread
the rain is this afternoon/evening to provide the low level
moisture needed for low level stratus and fog development
tonight and Sunday.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Frontal boundary lingers into early next week, potentially
enhanced by tropical moisture from the remnants of Fred. Will
likely see periods of sub-VFR in rain through next week, but VFR
will also occur, so expect variable conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-152000-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe. Damaging winds are the main threat, along with localized
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-152000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
346 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms this evening could cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
514 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ004-005-VAZ043-142145-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-Henry VA-
514 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
southeastern Stokes, western Rockingham and south central Henry
Counties through 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Horse Pasture to Pine Hall. Movement was
south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Walnut Cove...
Stoneville...
Pine Hall...
and Intelligence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7981 3638 7972 3626 8004 3626 8018
      3637 8017 3667 7991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 010DEG 7KT 3659 7994 3630 8007

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
522 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ002-142145-
Alleghany NC-
522 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
northwestern Alleghany County in northwestern North Carolina through
545 PM EDT...

At 521 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Stratford, or near Sparta. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stratford...
Twin Oaks...
and Piney Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 8132 3657 8131 3657 8111 3645 8118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 043DEG 1KT 3653 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
525 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VAZ015-016-142200-
Grayson VA-Carroll VA-
525 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
west central Carroll and northeastern Grayson Counties through 600 PM
EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fries. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fries...
and Spring Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 8094 3672 8088 3667 8095 3666 8101
      3672 8109 3676 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 043DEG 1KT 3671 8099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
529 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VAZ033-142200-
Franklin VA-
529 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
eastern Franklin County through 600 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Western Smith Mountain Lake, or near Rocky Mount, moving southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Sydnorsville...
Penhook...
Ferrum...
Burnt Chimney...
Northwest Smith Mountain Lake...
and Westlake Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 8003 3718 7972 3715 7971 3715 7970
      3716 7970 3714 7967 3710 7964 3709 7962
      3708 7961 3708 7962 3705 7959 3705 7960
      3703 7960 3698 7961 3683 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 328DEG 13KT 3705 7981

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VAZ032-033-043-142215-
Henry VA-Franklin VA-Patrick VA-
546 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
northwestern Henry, southern Franklin and northeastern Patrick
Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ferrum, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Bassett...
Sydnorsville...
Ferrum...
Stanleytown...
Endicott...
and Fairy Stone State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8022 3695 8016 3695 8015 3696 8014
      3698 8014 3699 8012 3700 8013 3701 8011
      3702 8011 3707 8008 3697 7972 3673 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 203DEG 8KT 3692 8002

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ET

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
549 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

NCZ004-005-142215-
Stokes NC-Rockingham NC-
549 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
eastern Stokes and western Rockingham Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sandy Ridge to Intelligence to near Pine
Hall. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wentworth...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Stoneville...
Pine Hall...
Intelligence...
and Ellisboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8013 3637 8002 3644 8016 3654 8007
      3654 8002 3653 7991 3635 7971 3625 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 301DEG 5KT 3649 8008 3636 7991 3624 8004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DS