Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1051 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather pattern stays hot and humid into late Friday, then as a
front moves southeast to the region this weekend, temperatures
sink toward normal, then below by early next week, with a better
coverage of showers and storms expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Thursday...

Main focus this afternoon is the heat and humidity. Potential
also exists for a few strong/severe storms.

After assessing the short term models, the consensus is for
less thunderstorm coverage today per stronger downsloping
westerly wind... in the same breath, coverage may be slightly
higher over the NC High country and the northwest piedmont of NC
where the westerly downslope component is not as strong,
allowing for somewhat better low level convergence. For now will
leave the forecast unchanged which reflects low chance pops
across the northeast CWA to high chance in the southwest CWA.
Any storm that manages to form will do so in an environment that
will have considerable DCAPE or downward momentum supporting
strong downdraft winds.

Areawide, the Heat Is On. The 85H temp is +20 deg C and with
the aid of downslope compressional warming, temperatures east of
the Blue Ridge are expected well into the 90s. LYH hit 98
yesterday. Think the Hill City will be very close to that number
again today. Couple that with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
near 70 and the heat indices will range from 100 to 105. East
of a Charlottesville-Buckingham-Farmville line, the dewpoints
are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. This combination
makes for heat indices above 105, which is the threshold we use
to address headlines for heat advisories.

As far as highs, expect readings in the 80s in the west,
perhaps touching 90 in a few spots, with lower to mid 90s east
of the mountains including Roanoke...and upper 90s to near the
century mark northeast of Lynchburg toward Charlottesville. Both
Roanoke and Lynchburg could get close to their record highs this
afternoon. Record at ROA is 96/2010. Record at LYH is 98/1900.

For tonight, shortwave energy lingers across the mountains
overnight so inclined to keep isolated to widely scattered
showers/storms through the night, especially in the mountains.
Will also have to watch an outflow boundary from forecast MCS
over the Ohio Valley and Western PA which may make inroads into
WVA with potential for outflow winds to reach our northern CWA
around midnight. Lows are going to remain muggy in the mid to
upper 60s west, to lower to mid 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

Hot and humid Friday and Saturday, cooling down by Sunday.

Surface high pressure will remain across the western Atlantic
through Friday. Southerly flow around the high center will result in
hot and humid conditions through Saturday. A cold front is expected
to arrive Saturday, providing a better focus for more showers/storms.
Cooling behind the front is expected Saturday night.

The front is expected to become stationary over the area on Sunday.
Although cooler temperatures are expected, another round of showers
and afternoon thunderstorms will possible on Sunday, along with
widespread cloudiness. This will keep daytime highs in the upper
70s/low 80s, some 10-15 degrees below what we have seen this past
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Unsettled weather is expected through the middle of next week.

A stalled frontal boundary is expected to remain over the forecast
area through Tuesday.  This will provide a focus for abundant cloud
cover and showers and some isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures
expected to stay on the cool side for August standards, though still
expecting higher humidity values to linger.

As we transition into next week, focus will be on the tropics and
whether Tropical Storm Fred gains enough latitude to introduce
tropical moisture to our part of the CONUS. Guidance still varies
widely on possible outcomes, but if the remnants can push through
our part of the region it will provide much-needed rainfall to the
area.

Please refer to the guidance from NHC regarding the details and
official forecast track of Tropical Storm Fred.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Fog did not develop as expected despite limited cloud cover and
high low level moisture.

So right now will lean toward VFR through most of the period.

Storms may impact near BCB/BLF this morning-mid afternoon and
ROA/LYH/DAN this afternoon. Still too early to have any
predominant thunder or showers in the tafs as coverage will be
widely scattered.

Almost a repeat tonight though cloud cover and showers may
remain situated in scattered pockets across the area. Some model
still painting IFR fog at LWB/BCB but will lean toward MVFR at
BCB and 3sm at LWB. Confidence is low on this given what
happened this morning, but will see how any rain occurs and
helps moisten the ground even more.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Pattern remains the same into Friday with scattered storms in
the afternoon/evening and fog at night. A front moving in from
northwest will bring a better threat of storms for the weekend
into Monday, potentially enhanced by tropical moisture from
Fred. So overall, aside from storms and fog, should be mainly
VFR, with potential for sub-VFR over the weekend if we get an
easterly fetch behind the front off the Atlantic, especially at
night.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

NCZ005-006-VAZ033>035-043>046-058-059-131415-
Rockingham-Caswell-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-
Campbell-Appomattox-Halifax-Charlotte-
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The combination of high temperatures in the mid 90s and high humidity
will send heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values may peak between 100 and 105 degrees Friday
afternoon. Scattered strong thunderstorms are also possible Friday
afternoon. There could be some locally heavy rainfall over the
weekend as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ047-131415-
Buckingham-
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

    Heat Advisory. Heat indices up to 106 for several hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values may peak between 100 and 105 degrees Friday
afternoon. Scattered strong thunderstorms are also possible Friday
afternoon. There could be some locally heavy rainfall over the
weekend as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032-WVZ042>044-507-508-
131415-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-
Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Storms that form today could become strong to severe. Isolated
damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to isolated severe storms are possible Friday afternoon.
Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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