Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
720 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight as a
cold front passes through the region. This front will stall over
the Southeast on Tuesday, and by Wednesday the entire area will
be rain-free. Another frontal passage is likely for the end of
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS of 710 PM EDT Monday...

The threat for widespread severe weather has ended, thus the
severe thunderstorm watch was canceled. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue for the next couple of hours as the
cold front drops south tonight. Most of the convection will
diminish with the loss of heating tonight.  Modified
temperatures, pops and weather for this evening into tonight.
Areas of low clouds and fog will develop overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary will slow or stall on Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered showers or storms may develop across
southern portions of the forecast area. More changes later
tonight...

Previous Discussion...
As of 158 PM EDT Monday...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
tonight, some drier air will push in from the north on Tuesday.

A cold front will drop south across the region this afternoon
into Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead and along the frontal boundary. The airmass is unstable
with CAPEs at 2000 to 4000 j/kg. The deep layer shear is weak
around 20 kts. The PWATS have climb to 1.5 to 2 inches. Some of
the storms this afternoon will be severe with gusty winds and
heavy downpours. Convection will diminish with the loss of solar
heating tonight. Areas of fog and low clouds will develop
overnight especially where it rains. Isolated to scattered
showers will continue Tuesday as the front drops slowly south
across southern portions of the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EDT Monday...

Drier and warmer weather is expected for Tuesday night through
Thursday, but a cold front should approach on Thursday night.

Showers and thunderstorms may depart the North Carolina Piedmont to
start Tuesday night, but drier air will arrive from the northwest. A
large upper level ridge will sit over the central Plains throughout
this week, while upper level troughing will persist across eastern
Canada and continue to influence the Mid Atlantic. With a stalled
frontal boundary over South Carolina and weak high pressure entering
the Appalachian Mountains during Tuesday night into Wednesday,
confidence has risen that the weather will turn dry through
Thursday. Less cloud cover and downslope flow east of the Blue Ridge
could bring highs into the mid 90s for Wednesday and Thursday, and
most of the mountains should reach the 80s.

Because of the persistent troughing across eastern Canada, another
cold front will emerge on Thursday over the Great Lakes and reach
West Virginia toward Thursday night. The GFS and the NAM models
remain a few hours faster than the Canadian and the ECMWF models
with the timing of this approaching cold front. Nevertheless, shower
and thunderstorm chances will increase, especially over southeast
West Virginia. If the storms can tap into the instability from the
heat and increasing lift ahead of the frontal boundary, there could
be a risk of strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front will cross overhead on Friday before high pressure
enters by Saturday, but another cold front may approach late Sunday.

With a cold front passing over Virginia on Friday and reaching North
Carolina toward Friday night, confidence has risen on the chances of
showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Any strong storms
may produce strong winds and locally heavy rainfall. The front
should eventually reach South Carolina on Saturday before stalling
as the boundary becomes more parallel with the upper level flow.
Another area of weak high pressure should enter the Mid Atlantic by
Saturday, but the persistent troughing over eastern Canada may allow
another cold front to venture eastward from the Ohio River Valley by
late Sunday to promote more afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front will drop south across the region tonight into
Tuesday. Scattered MVFR convection will continue to form for
the next couple of hours ahead and along the frontal boundary.
Drier air will push into the north this evening into tonight.

Southwest to west winds will prevail through most of the taf
period. Winds will be erratic with thunderstorms this evening.
Winds will become light and variable tonight into Tuesday.
Patches of low clouds and fog are expected overnight. KLWB has
the best chance for LIFR fog. Morning low clouds and fog will
lift by late morning return most areas to VFR conditions
Tuesday. Isolated MVFR convection in possible in the south
Tuesday.

Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

The front will stall to our south Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, but may bring some SHRA/TSRA to mainly DAN. VFR
appears more likely toward BLF and LWB, with LYH/ROA/BCB seeing
a possibility for scattered showers and storms, but in general
will see prevailing VFR. Wednesday looks dry with prevailing VFR
everywhere.

Another cold front should arrive by late Thursday into Friday
with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms once
again. Given northwest flow aloft across the region thanks to a
building 599 dm ridge in the central/south central U.S.,
disturbances may bring unexpected convection to the area at
times throughout the week. Will need to keep an eye on the upper
midwest/Ohio Valley area. Unsettled weather will return Sunday
with showers and thunderstorms especially in the south and west.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/SH
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...KK/SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-272330-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this evening and tonight.
Localized flooding and damaging winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ004>006-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-272330-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
726 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and
west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected for this evening and tonight.
Localized flooding and damaging winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

NCZ006-270000-
Caswell-
708 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CASWELL COUNTY...

At 708 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Yanceyville,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Yanceyville...
Jericho...
Topnot...
and Hightowers.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3626 7942 3640 7947 3647 7932 3632 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 242DEG 13KT 3639 7932

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ012-015-016-270015-
Grayson-Wythe-Carroll-
712 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
WYTHE...WESTERN CARROLL AND EASTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
CITY OF GALAX

At 711 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Cripple Creek to near Woodlawn. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Galax...
Hillsville...
Independence...
Fries...
Cana...
Speedwell...
and Fancy Gap.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3657 8114 3683 8117 3682 8079 3656 8065
      3656 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 316DEG 15KT 3679 8109 3678 8084

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
724 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DALEVILLE               37.41N 79.92W
07/26/2021                   BOTETOURT          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE DALEVILLE AREA.

&&

PJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
726 PM EDT MON JUL 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCHANAN                37.51N 79.68W
07/26/2021                   BOTETOURT          VA   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

PJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
802 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VAZ007-009-010-012-270045-
Tazewell-Bland-Wythe-Smyth-
802 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
SMYTH...SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL...SOUTHERN BLAND AND NORTHERN WYTHE
COUNTIES...

At 801 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Fort Chiswell to near Burkes Garden.
Movement was south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wytheville...
Bland...
Tazewell...
Rural Retreat...
Ceres...
Burkes Garden...
Max Meadows...
and Interstate 81 between mile markers 40 and 83.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3716 8151 3708 8091 3703 8089 3700 8086
      3687 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 000DEG 17KT 3696 8095 3706 8136

RAB

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