Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2021
Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jul 9, 2021, 1:40 PM EDT for Stokes County, North Carolina. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2021, 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2021, 2:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 35 min
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
County Stokes County, NC
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 127 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -97 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1287 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 0 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 9, 9:00 AM EDT, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 9:00 AM EDT, 4 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 900 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A front crosses the area today and tonight with scattered storms, then meanders nearby into Sunday, keeping daily storm chances in the region. High pressure and warmer temperatures build in for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 845 AM EDT Friday... Cluster of showers and thunderstorms are moving rapidly through southern WV and east into VA this morning. Have expanded and increased PoPs and QPF where rain is imminent and also increased coverage of thunder. Showers without thunder are still more likely east of the Blue Ridge through 11 AM. Rainfall is heavy from Tazewell to Bland and into Mercer and Giles Counties, but is thankfully shifting east quickly. These areas will see a quick half inch or more, and currently instantaneous rain rates are around 3-5 in/hr. As of 310 AM EDT Friday... Trimmed probability of precipitation tonight... Pre-frontal trough from eastern Ohio to western Tennessee moves east today, reaching the West Virginia/Virginia border around 08Z/4AM and advancing east of Lynchburg, Danville, and Reidsville around 21z/5PM. 3km NAM was developing a broken line of thunderstorms along this feature after noon. The weak front crosses the region this evening. Already have some instability ahead of the trough which maximizes over the piedmont by mid afternoon. One drawback for this afternoon will be the overall westerly downslope component of the winds, which may suppress the coverage of showers and thunderstorms until the pre-frontal trough is farther east. Drier air comes in behind the front for tonight. Clouds clear out in the evening with the exception of the far western upslope areas. Temperatures not much different in the post-frontal air mass but surface dew points drop into the 50s late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... After a dry start to Saturday, a warm front will bring more showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the weekend. Weak high pressure will pass to the north on Saturday morning, but it will give way to a warm front moving eastward from the Ohio River Valley by Saturday night. There should be lingering dry air on Saturday that could delay any development of showers and thunderstorms until the evening. Moisture will return during Saturday night into Sunday as the warm front lifts northward due to its progress eastward being stopped by a retrograding upper level ridge over the Atlantic Ocean. Confidence is highest for convection on Sunday based on the coverage and the consistency portrayed in the models. CAPE is also most sufficient during Sunday afternoon. The upper level ridge will continue to propagate westward over eastern Virginia and North Carolina during Sunday night into Monday. With the ECMWF and the GFS models both showing the ridge building up to 598 dam at 500 mb, a notable capping inversion aloft could start to suppress any development of convection across the Piedmont. There will still be a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge on Monday afternoon, but the coverage should be more isolated than what will occur on Sunday due to the increasing influence of the ridge. It will also start to feel more hot and humid, and nights will become increasingly muggy. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Hot and humid weather will persist throughout this period with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. With the upper level ridge reaching its closest proximity to the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, it will continue to block an upper level trough over the central Mississippi River Valley from advancing eastward. Thus, rainfall chances appear limited with only isolated showers and thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge during Tuesday afternoon. The ridge should buckle and weaken by Tuesday night into Wednesday, which will allow the upper level trough to move eastward over the Great Lakes. More troughing appears likely across southeastern Canada by Thursday based on the latest model solutions. As a result, chances of showers and thunderstorms will tick back upward during the latter half of this week. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 900 AM EDT Friday... Cold front from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Mississippi Valley will move southeast today across the Mid Atlantic region. Southwest winds ahead of the front will become west by this afternoon then northwest behind the front tonight. Some wind gusts up to 20 knots are possible this afternoon. Wind speeds diminish across the area after sunset. Ahead of the front this morning, TSRA will bring MVFR/brief LIFR in heavy rain, spreading east of the BLue Ridge by noon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop along the pre- frontal trough this afternoon, mainly east of Blue Ridge. Hi-res guidance has a majority of the thunderstorms east of KLYH and KDAN by 00Z/8PM. Have added LIFR fog in for KLWB late tonight after clouds clear out. Average confidence for wind, ceilings and visibility. Extended Aviation Discussion... There may be a bit of a break in shower and storm activity on Saturday, although not zero chances, and then as moisture increases again on back side of surface ridge of high pressure and ahead of the next slowly approaching frontal system. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances increase each day from Sunday into Monday. Patchy morning fog in the valleys will be possible each day as well. Tuesday is looking a day with limited thunderstorms, which will be confined to the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/SH SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...AMS/SK/SH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 5:10 AM EDT, 8 hours 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>044-507- 508-100915- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth- Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig- Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms during Sunday afternoon. The primary threat is damaging winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-100915- Rockingham-Caswell-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PW
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 9:17 AM EDT, 4 hours 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 917 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 VAZ010-011-WVZ042>044-091345- Giles-Bland-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- 917 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN GILES...NORTH CENTRAL BLAND...SOUTH CENTRAL SUMMERS...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES... At 916 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Oakvale, or near Athens, moving east at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Princeton... Pearisburg... Narrows... Athens... Peterstown... Poplar Hill... and Rich Creek. Locally heavy rain, with rates of two to four inches per hour, will quickly reduce visibility and result in ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid hydroplaning. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. LAT...LON 3725 8110 3748 8108 3750 8069 3722 8070 TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 270DEG 32KT 3737 8097 DS
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 12:50 PM EDT, 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA 1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 NCZ003-004-VAZ032-091715- Stokes-Surry-Patrick- 1250 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SURRY...NORTHWESTERN STOKES AND SOUTH CENTRAL PATRICK COUNTIES... At 1250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Toast, or over Mount Airy, moving east at 25 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mount Airy... Flat Rock... Pilot Mountain... Francisco... Woodville... White Plains... and Ararat. LAT...LON 3641 8071 3650 8072 3663 8031 3636 8028 TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 264DEG 21KT 3647 8063 RR
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 1:40 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
140 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
NCZ003-004-020-091815-
Stokes-Yadkin-Surry-
140 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN SURRY...SOUTHERN STOKES AND NORTHEASTERN YADKIN
COUNTIES...
At 139 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Pilot
Mountain State Park, or near Pilot Mountain, moving east at 25 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Pilot Mountain...
Walnut Cove...
Boonville...
East Bend...
Danbury...
King...
and Level Cross.
LAT...LON 3624 8074 3641 8065 3647 8011 3626 8012
3626 8045 3624 8045 3622 8043 3621 8045
3619 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 270DEG 23KT 3634 8047
RRThe office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 9:15 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Tazewell | 3 hr |
| Jul 9, 9:17 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Giles | 28 min |
| Jul 9, 4:52 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Halifax | 23 min |
| Jul 9, 12:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Surry | 25 min |
| Jul 9, 3:41 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Person | 34 min |
| Jul 9, 5:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Stokes, Surry, Yadkin | 50 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.