Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
108 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front enters the mountains this evening, exiting the piedmont
by dawn Tuesday. High pressure with drier and cooler air will
cover the area mid to late week. The next chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Monday...

...A few storms possible in the piedmont through early evening,
with weakening line moving to the mountains this evening...

Models continue to advertise lesser coverage of showers/storms
this afternoon in our forecast area, with the 12z nam more
robust along/southeast of a line from MTV-UKF. Will lean this
way as the HRRR/RAP also show this, with less overall coverage
north, til later this evening with the front moving into the
mountains. This line stretches out across the WV panhandle to
southern WV but weakening as it moves toward/into our
WV/Alleghanys and far SW VA after 01z. Will maintain low chance
pops for now.

Drier air infiltrates the area overnight with dewpoints falling
into the 50s by dawn Tuesday.

Lows will range from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains,
to mid 60s east.

Tuesday shows another shortwave moving across, with limited
upslope moisture. A few showers or storms may work across the
mountains of WV in the afternoon, but overall very limited.

Winds will pick up behind the shortwave with some gusts to 20
mph, with lower humidity will feel more comfortable.
Temperatures will top out in the 70s west, to mid 80s east.

Forecast confidence above average on all elements, except
average on pops this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure and dry conditions dominate the midweek...

A closed upper low stalled over eastern Canada will place us solidly
in northwest flow. The drier air and surface high pressure over the
Mid-Atlantic will suppress the probability of rain showers through
this forecast period. There is a slight chance of a sparse shower
over the WV mountains Tuesday Night due to upslope flow.
Temperatures fall a bit Wednesday and Thursday, with overnight lows
reaching down into the 40s for mountain valley areas, and low 50s
for most of the rest of the CWA. Highs will stick in the 70s and 80s
through this forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Monday...

Dry again Friday, but a cold front over the weekend heralds the
return of showers...

As we remain in northwest flow with the upper cutoff low slowly
moving eastward, as well as the surface high, Friday will be dry
much like the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the
Midwest, as synoptic scale flow turns to the south/southwest with
high pressure moving off the coast to our east. This will start to
moisten the atmosphere on Friday and ahead of the front Saturday.
Guidance is in good agreement that the front will enter the area
Saturday and bring with it scattered showers and storms. The front
stalls over us and becomes more of a zonally aligned stationary
front by Sunday. That boundary will act as a focus for showers and
storms to form both Sunday and Monday. The weekend will also warm
temperatures back up from the slightly cooler conditions of the
previous week. By Saturday temperatures will be several degrees
above normal and ought to stay that way through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1254 PM EDT Monday...

Will likely remain VFR through all of this taf period. Exception
may be a bit of fog near LWB late tonight but with a few more
clouds, this may not occur so left it out for now.

Any showers/storms this afternoon look to mainly stay south and
east of terminals with DAN likely the closest to convection.
Will amend if necessary.

Behind frontal passage Tuesday look for northwest winds to
average around 6 to 12 kts, with gusts to 15 to 20 kts.

Above average confidence for all elements except average of fog
late tonight.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Mainly VFR into Friday outside of any late night fog in the
mountains with high pressure settling in over the region.
Moisture increases ahead of front Saturday with scattered
showers/few storms anticipated. Mainly VFR outside any storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
230 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

NCZ004>006-VAZ043-044-058-059-151830-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte-
230 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may become strong
to severe. Damaging wind is the main threat. Any of the more intense
storms will also produce very heavy rain with may lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-045>047-WVZ042>044-
507-508-151830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
230 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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