Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
247 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through the
evening hours. A cold front crosses the area tonight and will
bring an end to any stronger storms. Low pressure moves through
overnight accompanied by scattered showers through Friday
morning. Skies begin to clear Friday afternoon through the
weekend with high pressure returning to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

An area of stratiform rain with some convective elements were moving
southwest to northeast across WV and portions of VA and NC. A triple
point was moving in from the west and was partly responsible for the
area of stratiform rain as well as the convective segments moving
out of WV. Several other boundaries were in the area. There were
a few lightning strikes over WV.

Chances for surface-based thunderstorms are still possible across
southern VA, Southside VA, and northern NC where some clouds were
clearing. This may be enough with the approaching front and
associated lift to support a few thunderstorms...a couple which
could be strong...this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise
nimbostratus and fog was holding fast in a wedge set-up across much
of the central and eastern region, and should prevent any severe
weather /or thunder/ from occurring. Primary threats will be
damaging winds with a strong LLJ nearby as well as hail.

The H5 low passes by to our south overnight. We will have some
marginal elevated instability which may produce a few claps of
thunder, mainly across northern NC. Otherwise, periods of widespread
showers will continue in cyclonic flow aloft. Expecting a break in
most of the precipitation tonight into the wee morning hours Friday,
which should fill in after 2 AM or so with additional light to
moderate rainfall as the trough axis passes overhead. QPF amounts
will be around three-quarters of an inch to an inch for most areas,
with southern WV seeing between an inch and an inch and a quarter.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds
will hang around tomorrow with some lingering showers, mainly across
northern NC and east central VA.

We may see enough cooling behind the frontal passage Friday morning
for some light snow over the highest elevations in southeastern WV
as well as central VA before all precip shuts off. Temperatures
Friday will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s, with clouds
clearing late in the day. Winds in the northern piedmont of VA will
be gusty Friday in NE flow as the surface low continues through the
Carolinas. Could see gusts to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Quiet with temperatures generally near seasonal normals through
the weekend.

A large ridge of high pressure will become established over the
eastern US while high pressure wedges down east of the mountains
at the surface. Since the wedge is rather dry expect the result
will be dry weather with a good amount of sun. Temperatures look
to be at or just slightly below normal for the middle of March
through Sunday, though a breeze may make it feel a bit chilly.
There is some weakness noted in the upper ridge and that will
allow for a development of a coastal low along the lingering
frontal boundary to our south, but indications are that this
system will remain far enough to our southeast to keep rain
chances out of the forecast.

Expect highs will generally be in the 50s, with lows rising from
the 20s on Friday night to the 30s by Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Dry with a warming trend into the first part of next week,
followed by a chance for showers.

Ensemble guidance in good agreement with keeping high pressure
wedged over the region at the surface as digs in over the
western US but is reluctant to make eastward progress before it
starts to deamplify. the result will be dry weather as we go
through the first part of next week, with a chance of showers
slowly starting to creep in from the west by Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend to above normal next week as highs reach
the mid/upper 60s west, around 70 east by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Surface observations indicate that IFR conditions persist, with
widespread stratus below 1kft, as well as areas of fog limiting
visibilities to the 1SM to 4SM range in some areas. Periods of
showers will continue through the period, with some chance for
TSRA at KDAN.

Low ceilings have broken up across parts of northern North
Carolina/extreme southern Virginia, and this is where any
thunderstorms would develop and shift east. By 23Z, expect the
main line of showers and any embedded thunder to exit to the
east of the area, with a westerly wind shift that will allow for
decreased rainfall...though showers will linger into late this
evening.

Tonight, MVFR/IFR ceilings and low visibilities in rain will
return as low pressure passes overhead. Winds will gradually
shift from northwesterly to northeasterly by sunrise Friday.

Forecast Confidence:
Precip Arrival - moderate
Visibilities - low to moderate
Ceilings- moderate

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Sub VFR conditions are expected to persist at least into the
early afternoon Friday as a low pressure system traverses
across the mid-Atlantic. Conditions will then improve through
the evening as low pressure moves away, with VFR categories
then expected to last through at least the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NF/SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
225 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-015-016-032-043>047-058-059-191830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Grayson-Carroll-Patrick-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
225 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia
and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tonight. A couple
storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. This
would be most likely before 7 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-010>014-017>020-022>024-033>035-WVZ042>044-507-508-191830-
Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
225 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ016-017-032-181930-
Stokes-Yadkin-Surry-Wilkes-Patrick-Floyd-Carroll-
247 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN SURRY...WESTERN STOKES...EAST CENTRAL WILKES...NORTHERN
YADKIN...SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

At 247 PM EDT, radar indicated showers were located along a line
extending from near Gladesboro to Mount Airy to Swancreek. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Airy...
Elkin...
Fairview...
Flat Rock...
Jonesville...
Dobson...
and Pilot Mountain.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these showers, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3610 8100 3647 8067 3677 8064 3687 8023
      3684 8007 3683 8008 3679 8004 3679 8007
      3678 8010 3672 8009 3666 8006 3663 8006
      3629 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 246DEG 33KT 3673 8059 3650 8061 3619 8089

RR