Alert archive / West Virginia / Areal Flood Warnings in 2021

Areal Flood Warning 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

March 1, 2021Greenbrier County, Summers County, West Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this areal flood warning at Mar 1, 2021, 1:55 AM EST for Greenbrier County, Summers County, West Virginia. It was in force for 31 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 1, 2021, 1:55 AM EST (06:55 UTC)
Expired
Mar 2, 2021, 9:00 AM EST
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Greenbrier County, WV, Summers County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 237 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
966 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
237 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
393 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

724 
WGUS41 KRNK 010655
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
155 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-089-011200-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FA.W.0003.210301T0655Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-Summers WV-
155 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Summers County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 700 AM EST.

* At 155 AM EST, Emergency management reported several areas of 
  flooding from earlier heavy rain in the western part of Greenbrier 
  County. U.S. Route 60 remains closed near Rupert, Anjean Road 
  remains closed near Rupert, and minor flooding has also been 
  reported along other roads in the general area of Rupert and 
  Crawley. From 2 to 3 inches of rain fell across this region during 
  the past six hours on saturated ground from recent rainfall and 
  snowfall.

* Minor to moderate flooding will continue across western Greenbrier 
  County, including portions of Clear Creek and the Meadow River.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Burdette Creek, Dry Run, Burns Run, Fitzwater Branch, 
  Cold Knob Fork, Boggs Creek, Big Run, Greenbrier River, Eagle 
  Branch, Elijah Branch, Big Clear Creek, Beech Run and Beaver Creek.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

RAB
8 follow-up statements
567 
WGUS41 KRNK 011020
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
520 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-011400-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210301T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
520 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 900 AM EST.

* At 520 AM EST, Up to 3 inches of rain fell across western 
  Greenbrier county Monday evening and early this morning. 
  Additional rainfall of an inch or so is possible through daybreak 
  this morning before the rainfall finally diminishes. Emergency 
  management and law enforcement officials report significant 
  flooding along the Greenbrier River upstream in Pocahontas County 
  in Marlinton. This flooding will move downstream impacting Renick, 
  Ronceverte, and Alderson, with Alderson expected to reach Moderate 
  Flood late today.

* Moderate flooding is expected along the Greenbrier River in spots 
  from Renick downstream to Alderson.  Please reference the River 
  Flood Warning for the Greenbrier River via a separate statement.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Burdette Creek, Dry Run, Burns Run, Fitzwater Branch, 
  Cold Knob Fork, Boggs Creek, Big Run, Greenbrier River, Eagle 
  Branch, Elijah Branch, Big Clear Creek, Beech Run and Beaver Creek.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

RAB
568 
WGUS81 KRNK 011020
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
520 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC089-011030-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210301T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Summers WV-
520 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GREENBRIER COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EST for portions of 
west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

RAB
404 
WGUS41 KRNK 011323
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
823 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-011600-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210301T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
823 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 1100 AM EST.

* At 823 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain coming to an end, with only light showers now passing 
  across the warning area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have 
  fallen since late last night.

* Moderate flooding is expected along the Greenbrier River in spots 
  from Renick downstream to Alderson.  Please reference the River 
  Flood Warning for the Greenbrier River via a separate statement.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg. Portions of Highway 60, Anjean Road Stone House Road 
  and Fort Springs Pike have been cut off due to flooding.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Sewell Creek, the Greenbrier River, and the Meadow 
  River, which continues to rise rapidly this morning.

Additional rainfall amounts locally up to 0.25 inches are possible 
in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

16
344 
WGUS41 KRNK 011552
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-011800-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
1052 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 100 PM EST.

* At 1052 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicate 
  that rainfall has ended. However, runoff from between 2 and 
  locally 3 inches of rain that fell overnight continues to collect 
  in creeks and rivers across much of Greenbrier County.

* Flooding is expected along the Greenbrier River in spots from 
  Renick downstream to Alderson.  Please reference the River Flood 
  Warning for the Greenbrier River via a separate statement.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg. Portions of Highway 60, Anjean Road, Miller Road, 
  Fort Springs Pike, and Kanawha Avenue near Rainelle have been 
  closed due to flooding.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Sewell Creek, the Greenbrier River, and the Meadow 
  River, which continues to rise rapidly this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

16
614 
WGUS41 KRNK 011750
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-012100-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210301T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
1250 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EST.

* At 1250 PM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicate 
  that rainfall has ended. However, runoff from between 2 and 
  locally 3 inches of rain that fell overnight continues to collect 
  in creeks and rivers across much of Greenbrier County.

* Flooding is expected along the Greenbrier River in spots from 
  Renick downstream to Alderson.  Please reference the River Flood 
  Warning for the Greenbrier River via a separate statement.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg. Portions of Highway 60, Anjean Road, Miller Road, 
  Fort Springs Pike, and Kanawha Avenue near Rainelle have been 
  closed due to flooding.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Sewell Creek, the Greenbrier River, and the Meadow 
  River, which continues to rise steadily this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

16
970 
WGUS41 KRNK 012051
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
351 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-020500-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210302T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
351 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until midnight EST Tuesday.

* At 351 PM EST, Runoff from earlier heavy rainfall continues to 
  cause flooding across much of Greenbrier county.

* Flooding is expected along the Greenbrier River in spots from 
  Renick downstream to Alderson.  Please reference the River Flood 
  Warning for the Greenbrier River via a separate statement.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg. Portions of Highway 60, Anjean Road, Miller Road, 
  Fort Springs Pike, and Kanawha Avenue near Rainelle have been 
  closed due to flooding.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Sewell Creek, the Greenbrier River, and the Meadow 
  River, which continues to rise steadily this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

MBS
181 
WGUS41 KRNK 020425
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1125 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

WVC025-021200-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210302T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
1125 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 700 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 1125 PM EST, The Meadow River near Hines was at 16.5 feet, 
  which is moderate flood stage. At this level Route 60 is flooded 
  near Charmco. River levels will fall through the morning, but 
  expect flooding along smaller rivers and streams to persist until 
  dawn.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Alderson, Rupert, Quinwood, Renick, Falling Spring and 
  Williamsburg.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Boggs Run, Sewell Creek, the Greenbrier River, and the Meadow 
  River, which continues to rise steadily this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 8076 3786 8075 3795 8081 3799 8077
      3799 8079 3803 8080 3803 8083 3804 8083
      3806 8080 3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088
      3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036
      3811 8036 3804 8026 3804 8023 3772 8063

$$

WP
064 
WGUS41 KRNK 021133
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
633 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

WVC025-021400-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0003.000000T0000Z-210302T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenbrier WV-
633 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Western Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 900 AM EST.

* At 633 AM EST, The Meadow River near Hines was at 15.4 feet and 
  falling. Flood stage is 14 feet.  At 15 feet, water impacts some 
  homes along the right bank of the river from Rupert to McRoss. 
  Flooding should end by mid morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Rainelle, Rupert, Quinwood, Duo, Anjean, Williamsburg and Trout.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Burdette Creek, Dry Run, Improvement Branch, Cold Knob Fork, Boggs 
  Creek, Eagle Branch, Elijah Branch, Big Clear Creek, Beech Run, 
  Kitchen Creek, Laurel Creek, Joe Knob Branch and Beaver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3795 8081 3799 8077 3799 8079 3803 8080
      3803 8083 3804 8083 3806 8080 3806 8083
      3804 8084 3808 8089 3808 8088 3810 8088
      3808 8070 3827 8044 3822 8036 3811 8039
      3802 8045 3778 8066 3786 8076 3786 8075

$$

WP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Mar 1, 1:27 AM EST, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 1:27 AM EST, 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
127 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving northeast through the Great Lakes tonight
will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region along
with moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
weather turns windy and colder behind the front on Monday and
Monday night. High pressure and dry weather build in for
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 915 PM Sunday...

Line of showers and embedded convective elements is now moving
into the Blue Ridge and gradually shifting ESE. A large area of
stratiform rain had spread across WV, with some stronger cells
to our southeast in KY and TN. Have expanded isolated thunder
across western and west central VA as the front continues to
push through tonight. We have issued a flash flood warning for
portions of Greenbrier County WV and Bath County VA. In these
areas rainfall totals of up to 2" have fallen in the last 24
hrs, and we are expecting localized higher amounts before the
rain ends.

Ahead of the front, there was a sharp gradient in PoPs, with
nothing falling yet across much of central VA and northern NC.
The rain will eventually push through during the overnight and
morning hours Monday as a short wave kicker deepening in
Ontario Province shoves the surface system and associated front
into the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

Have added some dense fog and also put up a dense fog advisory
for the central Piedmont of VA- south of the convective line
and still in a shallow in-situ wedge. This will eventually be
scored out by the FROPA, with temperatures and dew points
gradually falling during the day tomorrow.

As of 310 PM EST Sunday...

Flood Watch in effect through Monday morning for areas along
and west of a Marion to Pearisburg to Lexington line.

Low clouds and fog remained in the foothills and piedmont of
Virginia late this afternoon. The wedge had eroded over the rest
of southwest Virginia into southeast West Virginia and the
mountains and foothills of North Carolina. Outside of the wedge
winds were gusting from the southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

HREF and HRRR guidance have the main axis of showers from
central West Virginia through western Tennessee through
midnight. Between midnight and noon the band of showers and
associated cold front cross the Appalachians and will move in
eastern sections of Virginia and North Carolina.

Temperatures will be mild overnight as dew points rise across
the area. However, temperatures will drop during the day behind
the front in the mountains.

There will be a sharp gradient in rainfall amounts on the
western slopes of the central Appalachians. The heaviest
rainfall through Monday morning will be west of a western Bath
County, VA to western Watauga County, NC line. No changes have
been made to the Flood Watches that are in effect or will go
into effect at 7PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

A brief touch of wintry weather in the mid-week...

A transient surface high will enter the area from the upper midwest
late Monday and begin to clear out sky cover from north to south.
Behind Monday's front, winds will pick up for the overnight hours
into Tuesday. Higher elevation areas will experience gusts 25-35 kt,
and lower valley areas and east into the Piedmont will gust more int
the 15-25 kt range. Most of Tuesday will remain clear with zonal
flow dominating the eastern half of the CONUS. An eye will be kept
on a small cut off low set to come out of the southern states
Wednesday morning.

This little system will approach the region Wednesday morning and
restore cloud cover, but ought to get swept east and off the coast
by Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Most of the action from
this smaller system will remain south of the NC/VA border and will
be shortlived. The NC Highlands may see a quick inch or so of snow,
up to 2 in the very upper elevations. Elsewhere in the mountains, a
dusting is the most to be expected. Snow will become rain as
temperatures warm on Wednesday. East of the Blue Ridge this will be
an entirely rain event. By Thursday morning the cut off low will be
out to sea, and calmer weather will prevail.

Temperatures will be above normal for this forecast period, with
even a slight warming trend. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and
50s. The temperature profile will cool just enough Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning to allow that bit of snow in the mountains,
but most will stay above freezing in the mid 30s for overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EST Sunday...

A much calmer second half of the week and weekend...

A broad ridge will move into place over much of the CONUS. This will
provide us with dry mild weather through the end of the forecast
period. The only disruption could be another low forming in the
southern states late on Sunday and moving north to bring more rain
to the area. However, this currently seems a less likely scenario
than the broad ridge extending its influence almost as far south as
the Gulf. This will serve to fend off any encroaching low pressure
systems from approaching us from that direction.

High temperatures will be slightly above normal for this entire
portion of the forecast, while lows look to be right around normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 AM EST Monday...

Heavier rain showers creeping further east into the CWA along
with an associated wind shift/frontal boundary. As the winds
shift to the southwest/west, the fog is dissipating and the
Dense Fog Advisory has been removed for Roanoke, Franklin, and
Henry counties as of this hour. Rainfall will move across the
LWB/BLF/BCB area through 12Z, then further east such as
ROA/LYH/DAN in the 10Z-15Z time frame. Rainfall intensity and
coverage will decrease as it spreads further east and upper
support weakens. Meanwhile, the wedge is also eroding across the
eastern areas, but still some potential for dense fog at LYH and
DAN for a few more hours until the west flow and rain showers
arrive in those areas, so will hold onto dense fog for a bit
longer over there. Otherwise, LIFR/IFR conditions for
ROA/LYH/DAN will improve to MVFR during the morning hours and to
VFR by afternoon as clouds scatter out amidst drier/downslope
westerly flow. For areas further west, LIFR/IFR will also
improve to MVFR by mid-morning, but could remain in the MVFR
category versus VFR well into the afternoon.

Winds will become westerly and gusty after 14Z across much of
the area with gusts up to 30kts possible along/west of the Blue
ridge by late morning and through the afternoon. Winds will
begin to diminish a bit after sunset, but could still gusts to
20-25kts in the western areas during the evening.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
Ceilings - Moderate,
Visibilities - Moderate,
Winds - High.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Drier weather and VFR conditions are expected across the region
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A quick moving low pressure system
moving across the southeastern U.S. Wednesday and Wednesday
night may bring MVFR clouds and light, possibly wintry
precipitation, to the Carolinas Wednesday morning. Some MVFR
upslope clouds are possible in southeast West Virginia
Wednesday as well. Drier conditions should return late in the
week with mostly VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until noon EST today for VAZ007-009>011-018-023.
     Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ019-020-024.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     VAZ023-024-034-035-044>047-058-059.
NC...None.
WV...Flood Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/MBS/SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...RAB
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 3:57 PM EST, 9 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-012100-
Tazewell-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
357 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters, CoCoRahs observers, and members of the public are
encouraged to send their rainfall reports to the National Weather
Service in Blacksburg via our web site weather.gov/blacksburg, our
social media sites Facebook and Twitter, through email to
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or by calling 866-215-4324.

VAZ009>011-018-023-024-012100-
Smyth-Bland-Giles-Craig-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
357 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and west
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters, CoCoRahs observers, and members of the public are
encouraged to send their rainfall reports to the National Weather
Service in Blacksburg via our web site weather.gov/blacksburg, our
social media sites Facebook and Twitter, through email to
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov, or by calling 866-215-4324.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ012>014-016-017-022-032>035-043>047-058-059-
012100-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
357 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-012100-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
357 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina and
southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a chance for mixed wintry precipitation after midnight
Tuesday night into daybreak Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SHH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 28, 8:27 PM EST, 5 hours 28 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
827 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

WVZ042>044-507-508-010230-
Western Greenbrier-Mercer-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Monroe-
827 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT GREENBRIER...
SUMMERS...MERCER AND MONROE COUNTIES...

At 824 PM EST, radar indicated very heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms extending from near Rainelle...through Sandstone and
Coal City...to near Northfork. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Trees in
saturated ground may topple over.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton...
Lewisburg...
Hinton...
White Sulphur Springs...
Ronceverte...
Rainelle...
and Alderson.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3796 8005 3780 8023 3769 8030 3765 8027
      3739 8072 3737 8077 3743 8086 3738 8088
      3735 8085 3729 8097 3739 8133 3751 8121
      3758 8119 3759 8109 3772 8097 3768 8088
      3782 8094 3787 8075 3795 8081 3805 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 284DEG 26KT 3799 8076 3779 8101 3766 8122 3751
8146

MBS
Special weather statement, Feb 28, 9:18 PM EST, 4 hours 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

VAZ018>020-WVZ044-507-010245-
Bath-Craig-Alleghany-Eastern Greenbrier-Monroe-
918 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT ALLEGHANY COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN
GREENBRIER AND EASTERN MONROE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON...

At 916 PM EST, radar indicated very heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms extending from near Mountain Grove...through Alvon...
to near Union. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms. Trees in
saturated ground may topple over.

Locations impacted include...
Alleghany...
Covington...
Clifton Forge...
White Sulphur Springs...
Union...
New Castle...
and Paint Bank.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944 3791 7963
      3786 7961 3777 7967 3780 7982 3764 8003
      3755 7997 3742 8008 3734 8026 3735 8034
      3743 8049 3748 8051 3754 8067 3785 8027
      3806 8007 3807 7996 3818 7992 3826 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 298DEG 31KT 3821 7988 3784 8024 3758 8058

MBS
Local storm report, Feb 28, 9:54 PM EST, 4 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
954 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW QUINWOOD          38.05N 80.72W
02/28/2021                   GREENBRIER         WV   911 CALL CENTER

            WALKER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE RUPERT            37.99N 80.67W
02/28/2021                   GREENBRIER         WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ANJEAN ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0915 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW RUPERT             37.97N 80.70W
02/28/2021                   GREENBRIER         WV   911 CALL CENTER

            MIDLAND TRAIL WEST CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&
Local storm report, Feb 28, 10:13 PM EST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1013 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 WNW BURNSVILLE        38.25N 79.77W
02/28/2021                   BATH               VA   MESONET

            STREAM GAGE SHOWS BACK CREEK NEAR SUNRISE IS
            OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&
Local storm report, Mar 1, 1:41 AM EST, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
141 AM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            2 WNW MOUNTAIN GROVE    38.11N 79.91W
02/28/2021                   BATH               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG
            VIRGINIA ROUTE 39 IN WESTERN BATH COUNTY.
            WATER FROM BACK CREEK WAS ENCROACHING ON THE
            ROADWAY.

&&

RAB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 7:07 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningRNKGreenbrier6 hr
Feb 28, 8:27 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGreenbrier, Mercer, Monroe, Summers63 min
Feb 28, 9:18 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKMonroe27 min
Mar 1, 5:11 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningRNKGreenbrier, Monroe, Summers27 hr
Mar 1, 7:43 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningRNKMercer, Summers25 hr
Mar 1, 1:22 PM ESTWind AdvisoryRNKGreenbrier12 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in West Virginia, 2021Every areal flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.