Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

072 
WGUS81 KRNK 260724
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
224 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC005-017-023-045-071-163-530-580-678-WVC025-055-063-089-261115-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Bath VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-
City of Buena Vista VA-City of Covington VA-City of Lexington VA-
Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
224 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
CRAIG, GILES, ALLEGHANY VA, BATH, BOTETOURT, ROCKBRIDGE, GREENBRIER, 
MERCER, MONROE AND SUMMERS COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA, THE 
CITY OF COVINGTON AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

At 224 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated an 
area of very heavy rainfall across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 
inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Bluefield, Lexington, Buena Vista, Princeton, Covington and 
  Clifton Forge.

In Mercer County, Camp Creek, Brush Creek near Princeton and East 
River at Willowton were all rising quickly. Gauges on the Bluestone 
River also showed sharp rises.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 8098 3768 8088 3782 8094 3786 8075
      3806 8080 3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044
      3811 8036 3804 8020 3806 7995 3827 7980
      3820 7956 3788 7915 3754 7953 3736 8033
      3720 8072 3733 8136 3758 8120

$$

AS

001 
WGUS81 KRNK 260927
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
427 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

.Prolonged rainfall over southern West Virginia and southwest 
Virginia has resulted in flooding on some streams and creeks.

VAC005-017-023-045-071-163-530-580-678-WVC025-055-063-089-261115-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Bath VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-
City of Buena Vista VA-City of Covington VA-City of Lexington VA-
Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
427 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
CRAIG, GILES, ALLEGHANY VA, BATH, BOTETOURT, ROCKBRIDGE, GREENBRIER, 
MERCER, MONROE AND SUMMERS COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA, THE 
CITY OF COVINGTON AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

At 427 AM EST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated an 
area of very heavy rainfall across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 
3 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Bluefield, Lexington, Buena Vista, Princeton, Covington and 
  Clifton Forge.

In Mercer County, the gauge at Camp Creek was 7.4 feet and rising. 
Flood Stage is 7 feet. This will result in flooding in parts of Camp 
Creek State Park.

On the East River at Willowton, the stage was 9.3 feet and the river 
was cresting. Flood stage is 9 feet. This will flood Christie Road.

Brush Creek near Princeton and the Bluestone River near Pipestem 
were also rising.
River also showed sharp rises.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.25 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 8098 3768 8088 3782 8094 3786 8075
      3806 8080 3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044
      3811 8036 3804 8020 3806 7995 3827 7980
      3820 7956 3788 7915 3754 7953 3736 8033
      3720 8072 3733 8136 3758 8120

$$

AS

424 
WGUS41 KRNK 261058
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
558 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC005-017-023-045-071-163-530-580-678-WVC025-055-063-089-261315-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Bath VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-
City of Buena Vista VA-City of Covington VA-City of Lexington VA-
Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
558 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for urban areas and small streams in...
  Craig County in southwestern Virginia...
  Giles County in southwestern Virginia...
  Alleghany VA County in west central Virginia...
  Bath County in west central Virginia...
  Botetourt County in west central Virginia...
  Rockbridge County in west central Virginia...
  The City of Buena Vista in west central Virginia...
  The City of Covington in west central Virginia...
  The City of Lexington in west central Virginia...
  Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Mercer County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Monroe County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Summers County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 815 AM EST.

* At 558 AM EST, gauge reports indicated heavy rain. Flooding is 
  already occurring in the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of 
  rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Bluefield, Lexington, Buena Vista, Princeton, Covington and 
  Clifton Forge.

Flooded roads were reported in Greenbrier County near Alderson. Camp 
Creek and the East River in Mercer County were also flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The rain had ended but runoff from heavy rainfall will cause 
flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and 
other low lying spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 8098 3768 8088 3782 8094 3786 8075
      3806 8080 3810 8088 3808 8070 3827 8044
      3811 8036 3804 8020 3806 7995 3827 7980
      3820 7956 3788 7915 3754 7953 3736 8033
      3720 8072 3733 8136 3758 8120

$$

AS

286 
WGUS81 KRNK 261308
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
808 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC017-530-678-261318-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bath VA-City of Buena Vista VA-City of Lexington VA-
808 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR BATH COUNTY AND THE CITY OF BUENA 
VISTA AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3758 8120 3771 8098 3768 8088
      3782 8094 3786 8075 3806 8080 3810 8088
      3808 8070 3827 8044 3804 8026 3806 7995
      3795 8006 3788 7964 3765 7940 3754 7953
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8101 3729 8098

$$

VAC005-023-045-071-163-580-WVC025-055-063-089-261315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-City of
Covington VA-Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
808 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
CRAIG, GILES, ALLEGHANY VA, BOTETOURT, SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE, 
GREENBRIER, MERCER, MONROE AND SUMMERS COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF 
COVINGTON...

At 808 AM EST, gauge reports indicated an area of very heavy 
rainfall across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Alleghany, Princeton, Covington, Clifton Forge, Lewisburg, 
  Pearisburg and Hinton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3758 8120 3771 8098 3768 8088
      3782 8094 3786 8075 3806 8080 3810 8088
      3808 8070 3827 8044 3804 8026 3806 7995
      3795 8006 3788 7964 3765 7940 3754 7953
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8101 3729 8098

$$

RR

563 
WGUS41 KRNK 261312
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
812 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC005-023-045-071-163-580-WVC025-055-063-089-261515-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-City of
Covington VA-Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
812 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for urban areas and small streams in...
  Craig County in southwestern Virginia...
  Giles County in southwestern Virginia...
  Alleghany VA County in west central Virginia...
  Botetourt County in west central Virginia...
  Southwestern Rockbridge County in west central Virginia...
  The City of Covington in west central Virginia...
  Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Mercer County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Monroe County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Summers County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 1015 AM EST.

* At 812 AM EST, gauge reports indicated that numerous small streams 
  and creeks were either in action stage or nearing flood stage. 
  Flooding is already occurring in the warned area. Between 1.5 and 
  3 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Alleghany, Princeton, Covington, Clifton Forge, Lewisburg, 
  Pearisburg and Hinton.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Bluestone River and Indian Creek

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3758 8120 3771 8098 3768 8088
      3782 8094 3786 8075 3806 8080 3810 8088
      3808 8070 3827 8044 3804 8026 3806 7995
      3795 8006 3788 7964 3765 7940 3754 7953
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8101 3729 8098

$$

RR

212 
WGUS41 KRNK 261456
FLWRNK

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
956 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC005-023-045-071-163-580-WVC025-055-063-089-261715-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Botetourt VA-Craig VA-Giles VA-Rockbridge VA-City of
Covington VA-Greenbrier WV-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
956 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the

* Flood Warning for urban areas and small streams in...
  Craig County in southwestern Virginia...
  Giles County in southwestern Virginia...
  Alleghany VA County in west central Virginia...
  Botetourt County in west central Virginia...
  Southwestern Rockbridge County in west central Virginia...
  The City of Covington in west central Virginia...
  Southern Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Mercer County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Monroe County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Summers County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 1215 PM EST.

* At 956 AM EST, gauge reports indicated that numerous creeks and 
  rivers in the region remain swelled, with some either in action of 
  flood stage. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Alleghany, Princeton, Covington, Clifton Forge, Lewisburg, 
  Pearisburg and Hinton.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
   Bluestone River, East River, Dunlap Creek, and Camp Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3750 8125 3751 8120 3758 8120
      3759 8109 3771 8098 3768 8088 3781 8093
      3782 8094 3786 8075 3795 8006 3789 7989
      3789 7975 3784 7969 3788 7964 3754 7953
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8100 3729 8098

$$

RR

934 
WGUS81 KRNK 261557
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1057 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC005-023-163-580-WVC025-261607-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Alleghany VA VA-Botetourt VA-Rockbridge VA-City of Covington VA-
Greenbrier WV-
1057 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ALLEGHANY VA, BOTETOURT, 
SOUTHWESTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND SOUTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTIES AND THE 
CITY OF COVINGTON...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3751 8120 3758 8120 3759 8109
      3771 8098 3768 8088 3781 8093 3782 8094
      3786 8079 3772 8062 3768 8045 3771 8034
      3760 8015 3765 8003 3754 7997 3743 8006
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8100 3729 8098

$$

VAC045-071-WVC055-063-089-261715-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Craig VA-Giles VA-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
1057 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR CRAIG, GILES, MERCER, MONROE AND SUMMERS COUNTIES...

At 1057 AM EST, gauge reports indicated that numerous creeks and 
rivers in the region remain swelled, with some either in action of 
flood stage. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Princeton, Pearisburg, Hinton, Narrows, Alderson, Pembroke and 
  Athens.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
   Bluestone River, East River, Indian Creek, and Camp Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3751 8120 3758 8120 3759 8109
      3771 8098 3768 8088 3781 8093 3782 8094
      3786 8079 3772 8062 3768 8045 3771 8034
      3760 8015 3765 8003 3754 7997 3743 8006
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8100 3729 8098

$$

RR

997 
WGUS81 KRNK 261725
FLSRNK

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC045-071-WVC055-063-089-261735-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Craig VA-Giles VA-Mercer WV-Monroe WV-Summers WV-
1225 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CRAIG, GILES, MERCER, MONROE AND 
SUMMERS COUNTIES...

Heavy rain ended early this morning. Flooding is no longer expected 
to pose an immediate threat as water levels in streams and creeks 
are receding, besides near portions of the Bluestone River where a 
flood advisory is now in effect.

LAT...LON 3733 8136 3751 8120 3758 8120 3759 8109
      3771 8098 3768 8088 3781 8093 3782 8094
      3786 8079 3772 8062 3768 8045 3771 8034
      3760 8015 3765 8003 3754 7997 3743 8006
      3736 8033 3720 8073 3728 8100 3729 8098

$$

RR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
806 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will move east and
push a warm front into the Mid Atlantic region tonight,
resulting in widespread rain. This low will move off the coast
by Wednesday. Another storm system will track from the Gulf
Coast region on Wednesday to off the East coast by Thursday,
bringing rain and snow to the region Wednesday night. Quiet
weather returns for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EST Monday...

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM EST
Tuesday for VAZ020-024-035.
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM EST
Tuesday for WVZ508.

Freezing rain expected mainly for the Blue Ridge Parkway north
of the Peaks of Otter, in addition to the highest elevations of
the Virginia and West Virginia Highlands. Temperatures within
this particular area are in the lower 30s. Icing would primarily
be expected on elevated objects...trees and powerlines.

Low pressure was centered over the boot of Missouri with a warm
front extending east and into the southern Appalachians. Strong
warm air advection as pushing warm air from the Gulf of Mexico
into the Tennessee Valley with some unseasonably warm
temperatures and dewpoints (60s!) observed as far north as
central and western TN. As this warm air rides up and over the
warmfront, widespread rain in addition to spring time showers
and thunderstorms were being observed.

Our forecast area is stuck on the cool side of the front with a
wedge of cold high pressure along the east side of the
Appalachians. In spite of the cold wedge, very warm air aloft,
as evident in our evening sounding (+7 deg C at 800mb), was
being advected up and overtop of this stable wedge. This
isentropic lift was resulting in widespread light rain across
our CWA...moderate to heavy at times across the Virginias where
the isentropic lift was the strongest. Observed rainfall through
7PM has ranged from a half inch to an inch, with the heaviest
amounts along and north of highway 460.

Through the overnight, the rain is expected to continue, coming
through in waves. I would not be surprised to hear a rumble of
thunder, but think the overall threat for the deeper convection
would be over KY/TN.

As for ice accumulations associated with the freezing rain.
Think this threat will be limited to our most northern counties
along and north of I-64 where the cold wedge is most pronounced
and the temperatures are near freezing. Ice accumulations of a
coating up to two tenths of an inch are possible in the highest
elevations. The main icing threat will be on trees and other
elevated surfaces.

Temperatures overnight will range from near freezing in
Amherst,Rockbridge, Bath, and Greenbrier, to the mid 40s in
Tazewell and Smyth toward Bristol. Strong warm air advection on
the west side of the Appalachians may even result in rising
temperatures for a time during the overnight with some really
weird temperature profiles across the NC High Country where the
lower mountain valleys may be in the mid 30s and the higher
elevations may be in the 50s.

For Tuesday, the moisture will exit the region from west to
east. The wind flow aloft behind the system is from the
southwest, so expectation is for warming, not cooling behind the
system. Model consensus is for clouds to clear by mid afternoon
with temperatures rebounding into the 50s (possibly 60
degrees). Challenge on the other hand may be getting rid of the
cold wedge on the east side of the mountains which may delay or
elude the bulk of the warmup until later in the day. Highest
confidence for the warmer numbers is from the New River Valley
and west into the TN Valley and NC high country where the wedge
(if any) will be quicker to disperse. For now will leave the
forecast temperatures as advertised with highs in the 50s/60s...
but confidence in reaching these values (especially across our
northeastern CWA) is in question and may bust by as much as 10
to to 15 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EST Monday...

Wintry weather is becoming increasingly likely on Wednesday night,
but snow amounts are trending downward.

A potent upper level trough will cross over the central Mississippi
River Valley on Wednesday, while a low pressure system develops over
the Southeast. Moisture should head northward into North Carolina
during the morning and enter Virginia by the afternoon. The models
are trending a little faster with the timing of this system. As a
result, most of the precipitation will begin as rain due to surface
temperatures being well above freezing. However, temperatures should
begin to drop from evaporational cooling after sunset and cross
below the freezing mark early Wednesday night along and west of the
Blue Ridge. It will take until after midnight for the Piedmont to
approach this same threshold. Consequently, the rain should quickly
change to snow in the mountains, while a rain and snow mix exists in
the Piedmont.

While confidence is increasing for wintry weather on Wednesday
night, the accumulations are in serious doubt. The Canadian and
ECMWF models show higher snowfall totals across a broader area than
the GFS and NAM. Notably, the latest GFS and NAM runs have trended
downward with amounts with only a few inches along the mountains of
northwest North Carolina and little elsewhere. These models show an
overall weaker system staying further south to where the moisture
does not connect as well with the approaching upper level trough.
Because of the faster timing, the precipitation will fade on
Thursday morning with just upslope snow showers remaining from Boone
to Lewisburg. Winds will pick up considerably during this time as
the low pressure system deepens offshore, and there may be gusts
reaching advisory criteria along the southern Blue Ridge. High
pressure will bring drier air by the afternoon, and the winds should
subside a little on Thursday night. Temperatures were pushed below
guidance due to the cold air advection and the fresh snow cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Monday...

High Pressure Persists Until System Saturday Night Brings Potential
Wintry Weather That Transitions To Rain Sunday, Followed By
Persistent Upslope Flow Into Next Work Week.

Quiet weather is in play to start Friday as we head into next
weekend with broad upper level ridge sitting in place. This will be
short lived though: Saturday sees an upper level trough helping
develop a low pressure system that will track across the Mid-West
states into the Great Lakes, followed by a lee-side low developing
and likely transitioning into a noreaster system that will impact the
New England states. As for its impacts here, there's still
uncertainty in how this system could play out. The system's warm
front is currently poised to arrive overnight Saturday when
temperatures will be cool enough through the profile to support snow
showers starting off. As warm air is projected into the Mid-Atlantic
via intensifying return flow, temperatures aloft are expected to
warm. While it's too early to put into grids, it's certainly
possible to see a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and even freezing rain
before turning over to a mostly rain. That said, all of this wintry
trouble would happen prior to the heaviest precipitation that
arrives midday Sunday with the cold front. At that point, we would
have an almost all rain, besides perhaps just our highest
elevations.

Following the Saturday night into Sunday system, good NW flow is
looking to set up over a prolonged period, beyond the Monday extent
of the long range portion of the forecast. This means we will see
upslope snow showers from Western Greenbrier, down into the NC
Mountains that could be on and off over several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM EST Monday...

Poor flying conditions expected through noon Tuesday with
widespread IFR/LIFR Cigs in addition to rain and fog with
visibilities generally under 5SM.

Rain is expected to end from west to east Tuesday morning with
gradual clearing from west to east during the afternoon.

Average confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

VFR conditions expected to start the day Wednesday, then
transition into MVFR/IFR categories Wednesday night as
another low pressure system brings more precipitation to the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry weather is expected
Thursday night and Friday. MVFR showers are possible Saturday in
the west.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ020-024-
     035.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/RR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

VAZ018-019-023-WVZ507-261800-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Botetourt-Eastern Greenbrier-
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night. This may impact the
morning commute on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ034-261800-
Bedford-
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Pockets of freezing rain are likely tonight at higher elevations,
especially along the Blue Ridge.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Light snow is possible Wednesday night. This may impact the morning
commute on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-022-WVZ042>044-261800-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night. This may impact the
morning commute on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-033-043>047-058-059-261800-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Light snow is possible Wednesday night. This may impact the morning
commute on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ020-024-035-WVZ508-261800-
Bath-Rockbridge-Amherst-Western Greenbrier-
1247 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.