Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass across the region tonight into Sunday.
Drier conditions return for Monday as high pressure builds in
from the west. Scattered showers are possible Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight, but
drier weather should arrive by late Sunday.

Scattered showers continue to track northeastward across the
Appalachian Mountains. Confidence remains high on the rain but
not as much with the thunder given that no lightning has been
detected yet, so thunderstorm chances have been delayed to
later this evening and tonight. The potential still remains for
a couple strong to severe thunderstorms as SPC pointed out in
the marginal threat on the Day 1 convective outlook, but those
chances appear to be waning based on limited instability and
prevalent cloud cover. The main threats for any severe will be
in the form of hail given freezing levels around 10 kft and
locally damaging winds. Locally heavy rain will also be a
possibility as precipitable water values peak in the 1.2 to 1.4
inch range, especially along the Blue Ridge where upslope flow
will enhance the rainfall amounts.

After the warm front lifts northeast this evening, a cold front
will cross overhead tonight. There is not much cold air behind
this frontal boundary, so Saturday night low temperatures
should vary from the mid 40s in the mountains to the upper 50s
in the Piedmont. Lingering showers may be possible behind the
front during Sunday morning as indicated by the NAM model. High
temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 50s in the
mountains to the mid 70s in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 211 PM EDT Saturday...

Drying out and staying mild Monday into Tuesday before a
midweek cooldown.

Our closed upper level low continues to meander in the vicinity
of the southern Great Lakes region Sunday night into Tuesday
morning. The low gradually drifts north and east while becoming
a bit more elongated in the overall flow across the upper Great
Lakes and interior Northeast. As a result our weather pattern
will turn more zonal or flat with not much in the way of
significant weather expected heading into midweek. However, as
the low continues to meander to our north and east it will send
several weak short wave impulses our way including a relatively
moisture starved front late Monday into Tuesday. The 12z GFS,
Canadian, and Euro all illustrate this fairly well with low end
PoPs along and west of the Blue Ridge.

Life behind the front Tuesday brings dry and mild conditions for
Tuesday before another weak shortwave impulse scoots by to our
north and west late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal for most of period. Monday
looks to be the warmest day out ahead of the front with
downsloping westerly flow pushing highs well into the low to mid
70s in the west to mid to upper 70s out east. Temps cool
slightly Tuesday with mid to upper 60s in the west and low to
mid 70s out east. Wednesday looks to be the coolest day with
widespread highs in the 60s. Overnight lows will steadily drop
off as well with readings close to 50 Sunday and Monday nights
before getting back into the low to mid 40s early Wednesday
morning.

Confidence remains high in the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 211 PM EDT Saturday...

Scattered shower chances and cooler temperatures as we enter
into the middle part of April.

Both Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day and 8-14 day temp/precip
outlooks progs the area for a cooler/wetter conditions to start
the middle part of April before a transition to cooler/drier
conditions to round out the month. Ensemble guidance tends to
agree with these trends with a deep digging trough setting up
shop for many states east of the Mississippi River and a piece
of upper level energy meandering off the East Coast. As a result
we can expect a continuation of low end precipitation chances
with low confidence and weak cold air advection heading into the
latter half of the workweek. For now kept I kept a slight
chance of showers mainly north of I-64 Wednesday into Thursday
as a weak shortwave piece of energy passes by to our north and
energy offshore ejects further out to sea.

Another area of low pressure arrives from the Ohio River Valley
as we enter the weekend ahead.

Confidence remains low to moderate in the long term period based
on the timing and moisture availability pivoting through.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Saturday...

Confidence is high for poor flying weather tonight. Widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms will track toward the
northeast this evening, but thunder chances have been waning
based on the latest radar and model trends. Because of a
southeast flow at the surface turning to the southwest aloft,
the NAM model hints at a potential between 00Z and 03Z of low
level wind shear at BCB, but confidence is too low to mention in
the TAF. Ceilings will fall to MVFR and eventually deteriorate
to IFR overnight. While the heaviest showers and thunderstorms
should exit to the east after midnight, light showers may linger
through the remainder of the night. The wet ground could allow
some fog to develop by early Sunday morning with the highest
threat of IFR visibilities at BCB and LWB.

A cold front should cross overhead late tonight into Sunday
morning, which will allow ceilings improve west of the Blue
Ridge. It may take a little longer in the morning for the
ceilings to lift along and east of the Blue Ridge. Eventually,
all TAF sites should return to VFR conditions with winds turning
to the southwest and gusting up to 20 knots.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak disturbance will pass over the Great Lakes and bring
another chance of showers for Monday night into Tuesday morning,
which could trigger MVFR conditions. Afterward, drier weather
should arrive later on Tuesday. While VFR conditions will more
than likely persist through Wednesday and Thursday, there could
be a chance of showers in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PW
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...PW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
234 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ007-009-010-012-043>047-058-059-WVZ042-043-111845-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-
234 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A frontal boundary will pass across the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing the possibility of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing large hail,
as well as locally damaging winds. Locally heavy rain will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ011-013>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ044-507-508-
111845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-
Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
234 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A frontal boundary will pass across the region this afternoon and
evening, bringing the possibility of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing large hail,
as well as locally damaging winds. Locally heavy rain will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
538 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

NCZ003-102215-
Surry-
538 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT
EASTERN SURRY COUNTY...

At 538 PM EDT, a shower was located over Level Cross, or near
Fairview, moving north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Airy...
Fairview...
Flat Rock...
Dobson...
Pilot Mountain...
Level Cross...
and Woodville.

This shower may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3627 8068 3627 8073 3628 8074 3626 8075
      3628 8077 3656 8074 3655 8044 3651 8044
      3626 8053 3629 8054 3627 8060 3629 8062
      3629 8063 3628 8063 3627 8064 3625 8065
      3625 8067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 190DEG 29KT 3632 8065

RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
549 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 W FRANCISCO           36.50N 80.39W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            AN INCH AND A HALF DEEP, REPORTED BY
            MIDSUMMER BREWING.

&&

SHH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
607 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

NCZ003-VAZ016-032-102230-
Surry-Patrick-Carroll-
607 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN SURRY...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN PATRICK
COUNTIES...

At 606 PM EDT, a thunderstorm was located over Flat Rock, moving
north at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Airy...
Flat Rock...
Ararat...
Laurel Fork...
Toast...
Meadows Of Dan...
and Woodville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3648 8064 3680 8058 3679 8052 3671 8046
      3673 8045 3674 8046 3675 8045 3674 8040
      3675 8039 3673 8030 3655 8041 3655 8044
      3649 8044 3643 8048
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 198DEG 29KT 3653 8054

RR

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