Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front waffles back and forth over the area providing mild
conditions and periods of rain through Thursday. A strong
system looks possible next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 624 PM Monday...

Adjusted PoPs/Wx grids per latest radar imagery trends. Cold
front still west of the area with lines of strong showers
perhaps with embedded thunderstorms moving across the Middle
Ohio Valley this evening. This activity will cross east and
south overnight, stalling across our southern sections into
Tuesday morning.

As of 250 PM Monday...

The warm front has cleared essentially the entire CWA as of the
early afternoon hours, with generally S-SW'ly winds bringing
unseasonably mild air into the area. A few stray showers have
been noted around the area through the day so far, but all
activity has been on the light side. A slight chance of thunder
is noted across the northern half of the area late this
afternoon into the early evening hours, owing to some elevated
instability, but no major impacts or heavy rain is expected with
any of the showers or potential t-storms. This isolated shower
activity may increase in coverage later this afternoon into the
evening, mainly for the southern and eastern parts of the CWA,
as low pressure passing just to the north pushes a cold front
through from the west. Some gusty winds are possible this
evening and during the early overnight hours, initially SW'ly
ahead of the front, shifting W'ly behind the front. A Wind
Advisory is not anticipated, but some wind gusts over 30 mph are
possible for the northeastern mountains.

Winds diminish after midnight as the front pushes further to the
south and east. However, the front is forecast to stall over
southern KY and VA by tomorrow morning, then work back north
across the area during the day tomorrow as a warm front as
another low pressure system moves over or just north of the Ohio
Valley. The northern half of the CWA looks to be a good deal
cooler tomorrow compared to today, as the warm front is not
forecast to reach there until late in the day - possibly after
dark. But the southern half of the CWA looks to have yet another
unseasonably mild day on Tuesday. Highs in the southern half
will likely reach into the 60s again, with 50s for most of the
northern counties. No heavy rain is anticipated across the CWA
through Tuesday afternoon, so no flooding issues are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 224 PM Monday...

Rain chances continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm
front lifts through the area and the cold front associated with
the same system approaches from the west. The best chances for
rain Tuesday night into Wednesday will be along southeast Ohio,
northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia where a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall is in place. Precipitation chances
will continue into Wednesday night ahead of the cold front with
the higher chances becoming more focused along
southern/southeast West Virginia and southwest Virginia with
another marginal risk for these locations Wednesday night into
early Thursday. Currently expecting around an inch of rain for
the western half of the area and upwards of one and a half to
two inches along the mountains and southern portions of the area
through Thursday. Isolated higher amounts may be possible and
localized water issues could occur midweek, particularly for
those locations within the marginal risks for excessive
rainfall.

After the cold front moves through the area, precipitation
chances are expected to decrease on Thursday. This should leave
Thursday to be one of the driest days this week as a brief
period of high pressure moves in at the surface. Some light
chances of rain may linger along the southeastern portions of
the area on Thursday.

Meanwhile, at the upper levels, ridging continues to hold over
the area which will help allow mild temperatures, well above
normal, to continue through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 224 PM Monday...

Chances for rain could be possible on Friday as a weak
disturbance may cross through the area. By Friday night, chances
will begin to increase ahead of a stronger low pressure system
approaching the area for the weekend. Additionally, upper
ridging begins to break down heading into the weekend and flow
is expected to become more zonal. An upper level trough will
then dig into the area for the weekend along the low at the
surface. Models show decent agreement with the timing of this
system, however differ a bit with the placement of the surface
low at this time. Some models keep the low to the
north/northwest of the area with its associated cold front
crossing through the area Sunday while others bring the low
itself through the area.

Precipitation chances are expected to continue to ramp up into
Saturday ahead of the warm front associated with the system
as it lifts up through the area with widespread chances for
rain possible. By Sunday as the cold front crosses the area,
chances should begin to diminish as much colder air filters in
behind the front. Overall, especially with the rainfall expected
during this week, some flooding issues may be possible around
the area this weekend.

Models do indicate some moisture on the back end of this system
which along the colder temperatures should allow for some
possibility for upslope snow in the mountains and perhaps even
some snow for the lowlands. The GFS currently shows a slightly
warmer solution, however the ECMWF and Canadian have 850
temperatures below -10 degrees C moving in behind the system
which would support snow for any remaining precipitation across
the area.

Temperatures are expected to drop substantially behind this
system and should be closer to around seasonable heading into
the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 627 PM Monday...

A warm front has lifted north of the area this evening.
However, a cold front will cross the area from the west
overnight tonight, keeping chances for light rain showers and
MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will gradually improve to VFR across the
western sites behind the front tonight. Eastern terminals could
see MVFR/IFR ceilings including CKB, BKW and EKN overnight.

The cold front becomes stationary just south of our CWA early
Tuesday, and lift back north as a warm front by Tuesday
evening. This will maintain the threat for low stratus and light
rain showers through the period with MVFR conditions prevailing.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility may drop lower than advertised
in any heavier showers.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    H    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible with systems Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FK/CG
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
356 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-014-017-019-
280900-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Wirt-Ritchie-
356 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a small chance of localized flooding Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

Flooding is possible Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ013-015-016-018-020-027>032-039-040-517>526-280900-
Lincoln-Kanawha-Roane-Calhoun-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
356 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a small chance of flooding Wednesday night into Thursday.

Flooding is possible Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033-034-515-516-280900-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
356 AM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Flooding is possible Saturday into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
702 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

OHZ075-083-084-280045-
Jackson OH-Athens OH-Vinton OH-
702 PM EST Mon Dec 27 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Jackson, central Vinton and southwestern Athens Counties through 745
PM EST...

At 701 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Wellston, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mcarthur, Albany, Lake Hope State Park, Hamden, Zaleski and Byer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3936 8227 3920 8219 3921 8231 3918 8231
      3915 8272 3923 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 257DEG 36KT 3919 8268

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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