Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
535 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances and a cold front bring
isolated/scattered storms into Sunday. With an abundance of
moisture, mainly from Fred, chances for convection will persist
into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 535 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the
area this evening with any stronger storms being capable of
producing damaging winds and heavy downpours. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch was issued around 5PM and will be in effect
through 11PM tonight. Overall, things seem to be calming down
for the area at the moment but will continue to monitor as the
cold front continues to approach the area. Much of the area has
been worked over from the storms earlier this afternoon, but
there may be some potential ahead of this front for additional
gusty winds and heavy downpours throughout this evening.

Additionally, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled as
temperatures have cooled around the area in the wake of the storms
have moved through.

As of 1210 PM Friday...

Showers and storms will ramp up again today, with the approach
of a surface cold front, which will move across the area
tonight, and upper disturbances moving across the area. Still
looking at the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts,
particularly across the Ohio Valley region where dcape values
are greater than 1000 J/kg. Heavy downpours are of course also
expected, but with rather dry conditions overall, don't expect
much in terms of a flooding risk, unless multiple rounds hit the
same location in a short period of time.

Tonight, areas of fog and or stratus. Saturday, more showers and
storms are possible as frontal boundary slowly sags south, and
upper disturbances move through the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

By Saturday night, the aforementioned frontal boundary will
hang just to our south and meander there for the rest of this
period. This will keep moisture around to promote showers and
thunderstorms for mainly the elevated terrain along the
mountains. This will be the case into Sunday at which point
chances will spread across the CWA with likely POPs across the
higher terrain causing temperatures to be slightly below
seasonable. For Monday, surface high pressure backs off to the
northeast allowing the opportunity for heights to fall
consequently paving the way for possible diurnal showers and
storms likely keeping temperatures at bay. Convection will
likely spread into the evening as an upper level trough slides
in from the northwest, therefore kept chance POPs and
thunderstorm probability through the rest of the day and for
the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

We have tropical depression Fred who will make landfall and
track north eventually approaching the area on Tuesday. Long
range models along with ensembles are having difficulty
agreeing on the tracking therefore, accepted a blend of models
from guidance which kept likely POPs and thunderstorm potential
on the table through Tuesday. Depending on how fast Fred
traverse to the north will depend on how Wednesday will turn
out. Lacked confidence to go against guidance who gave chance
POPs/thunderstorms through most of Wednesday and elevating them
slightly for the afternoon/evening due to a developing upper
level low. This feature will possibly bring in a frontal
boundary, however this may change as high pressure makes a come
back as models hint. Temperatures will remain right around a
degree or two under the climatological norm for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the TAF period.
Expect frequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, gusty erratic
winds, and brief MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms.
Some decrease in storm activity is expected after 02Z although
isolated showers and storms will continue to be possible. After
05Z, there exists the possibility of widespread IFR or worse
fog and stratus. Much of this will lift after 14Z, but showers
and storms will continue across the area with local MVFR/IFR
conditions at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of thunderstorms could
vary from forecast. Development of fog and or stratus tonight
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms each afternoon through at
least Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SL/JZ
NEAR TERM...SL/CG
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
750 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033-034-515>520-150000-
Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-
750 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West
Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight for isolated
heavier showers or thunderstorms hitting the same location multiple
times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Saturday and
Saturday night for heavier showers or thunderstorms hitting the same
location multiple times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014-016>020-028>032-
039-040-521>526-150000-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-
Tyler-Putnam-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
750 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia,
northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West
Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall tonight for isolated
heavier showers or thunderstorms hitting the same location multiple
times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
552 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LEXINGTON           39.71N 82.21W
08/13/2021                   PERRY              OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY INCLUDING IN
            NEW LEXINGTON, CROOKSVILLE, SHAWNEE, AND
            MONDAY CREEK.

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
556 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S BEVERLY             39.50N 81.63W
08/13/2021                   WASHINGTON         OH   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN FROM BARLOW TO LOWER
            SALEM.

&&

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LAKE VESUVIUS     38.60N 82.60W
08/13/2021                   LAWRENCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON CR 61 IN LAWRENCE TOWNSHIP,
            STATE ROUTE 93 IN DECATUR TOWNSHIP AND
            TOWNSHIP ROAD 208 BETWEEN IRONTON AND KITTS
            HILL.

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE PROCTORVILLE      38.45N 82.35W
08/13/2021                   LAWRENCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FALLEN TREE PARTIALLY ON A RESIDENCE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

VAZ004-WVZ024-033-034-140000-
Buchanan VA-Wyoming WV-McDowell WV-Mingo WV-
725 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Buchanan, northwestern McDowell, southeastern Mingo and Wyoming
Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 724 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodman, or 17 miles southeast of Williamson, moving northeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pineville, Oceana, Hanover, R.d. Bailey Lake, Twin Falls State Park,
Gilbert Creek, Gilbert, Clear Fork, Panther, Coal Mountain,
Kopperston, Maben and Baileysville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3749 8204 3754 8197 3753 8201 3755 8204
      3753 8205 3757 8210 3766 8183 3766 8181
      3769 8176 3768 8174 3771 8171 3779 8147
      3775 8143 3762 8134 3743 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 238DEG 15KT 3756 8198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
730 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

KYZ102-140000-
Carter KY-
730 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Carter
County through 800 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haldeman, or near Olive Hill, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Gesling, Carter, Grahn,
Soldier and Globe.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 150 and
173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 8332 3832 8329 3833 8325 3834 8323
      3835 8324 3838 8323 3847 8307 3832 8287
      3823 8312 3826 8316 3827 8318 3823 8322
      3819 8323 3819 8326 3820 8328 3832 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 244DEG 11KT 3826 8326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
757 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

WVZ033-034-515-140030-
Wyoming WV-Northwest Raleigh WV-McDowell WV-
757 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...Strong,heavy thunderstorms impacting portions of eastern McDowell
and southeastern Wyoming Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 755 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gary, or 7 miles south of Welch, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Welch, Mullens, Gary, Northfork, Keystone, Anawalt, Kimball,
Maybeury, Elbert, Coalwood, Jenkinjones and Herndon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this and other storms in
the area, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 8169 3755 8157 3762 8133 3756 8127
      3754 8128 3751 8122 3750 8126 3746 8131
      3742 8128 3741 8129 3742 8131 3732 8137
      3732 8140 3728 8142 3725 8148 3726 8150
      3723 8151 3722 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 229DEG 19KT 3733 8155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12