Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
603 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of a slow moving cold
front that crosses today. Drier air returns through Wednesday,
with active weather returning for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

No changes required at this time. Seeing elevated convection blossom
this morning with isolated to scattered coverage, mainly east of I-
77. Should see these wane shortly after sunrise with surface based
convection taking over by late morning/early afternoon.

As of 130 AM Monday...

Nebulous surface stationary/cold front is draped across our northern
border this morning with a juicy airmass characterized by dew points
in the lower to mid 70s south of it. Already seeing most airport
sites drop in visibility and would expect dense valley fog/patchy
fog elsewhere by daybreak. Approaching mid-level wave should assist
in getting the front moving again by daybreak this morning. Given a
moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front, expect at
least isolated elevated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
through late morning as subtle upper level squiggles pass through
the region with more scattered to numerous activity this afternoon
driven by surface heating with the best coverage expected across the
southern third of the forecast area. By this evening, a bulk of any
lingering precipitation is expected to be south and east of the
forecast area. With weak deep layer shear expect mainly a pulse
storm mode with perhaps a couple multi-cellular clusters. Given
dry air aloft the main threat with this activity will be some
locally gusty winds as updrafts become water loaded, but any
more widespread severe risk remains low.

Despite drier air working in overnight, weak flow and clear skies
will again promote at least valley fog by Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Drier, and a little less humid conditions Tuesday and Wednesday
as high pressure builds into the region. There will still be a
small possibility for a shower or storm across the far south
Tuesday, in vicinity of frontal boundary, but most areas will
remain dry. Very hot both days, with high temperatures topping
out in the lower 90s across much of the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again by
Thursday, as a fast moving disturbance in northwesterly flow
will affect the area on Thursday. This far out it's difficult to
determine exact timing or other details on Thursday, but there
will be at least the potential for severe weather, with damaging
winds the primary hazard. Frontal boundary will cross the region
on Friday, with high pressure briefly building in for Saturday,
along with much cooler conditions. Another system is expected on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Monday...

Areas of fog lift and dissipate early this morning. A juicy
prefrontal airmass will yield isolated to scattered convection,
elevated in nature this morning transitioning to surface based
storms late this morning and early this afternoon. An approaching
cold front from the north will provide an additional focus for
storms. Net impact on the terminals: VCTS for all except PKB who
will be post frontal by the time any daytime heating kicks in, most
coverage expected at BKW, EKN and CRW. Storms largely dissipate or
exit south by 00Z. With clearing skies and light winds, at least
patchy valley fog is expected by Tuesday morning, despite drier air
beginning to work in behind the cold front. Winds light, turning
northerly 3-6KTs behind the cold front and going calm overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPO groups for TSRA may eventually be
required at all terminals save PKB this afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
436 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

KYZ105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-033-034-039-515>526-
270845-
Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
436 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours
resulting in isolated high water issues this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-029>032-040-
270845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
436 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia,
northern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. Some of these
storms may contain damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
726 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

WVZ020-031-032-261215-
Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-
726 AM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DODDRIDGE...WEST
CENTRAL TAYLOR AND HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 725 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Salem, or 11
miles west of Clarksburg, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksburg, Bridgeport, Stonewood, Nutter Fort, Salem, Anmoore, West
Milford, Lost Creek, Wolf Summit and Despard.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 108 and 125.
 Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 60 and 82.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3934 8017 3918 8022 3917 8023 3915 8023
      3911 8024 3910 8025 3922 8067 3935 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 288DEG 11KT 3924 8053

11