Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
733 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses tonight with showers and storms ending late.
A reinforcing cold front crosses Monday evening. High pressure
mid/late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 725 PM Sunday...
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front,
currently near the Ohio River, will continue to wind down in the
next two hours. There have been numerous reports of trees down,
and some minor flash flooding with some of the storms. Clearing
is slowly starting to take hold just to the north of the CWA,
and expect at least some breaks in the cloud cover, particularly
north of the Ohio River. With the widespread precipitation, am
expecting a widespread fog to develop overnight.

As of 230 PM Sunday...

 	Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today...

At the time of writing showers and thunderstorms were firing up
across Ohio and northern West Virginia in alignment with a
digging shortwave trough and accompanying surface cold front.
With convective parameters of 800-1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 20-25
kts of bulk shear noted on Mesoanalysis, the main concern with
storms that do have the capability of growing to strong to
severe levels will be the potential for downbursts and damaging
wind gusts. Forecast soundings denote freezing levels of 13-14
kft for today, which is plausible for healthy vertical cells to
produce hail. On top of that, training cells poses a concern for
high water issues given previously tarnished flash flood
guidance. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the
northern portions of the forecast area and will remain in effect
until 7 PM as it currently stands.

These showers and storms will continue to propagate
southeastward after transpiring through this evening ahead of
the aforementioned cold frontal passage progged to occur late
tonight. 12z suite CAMs hint this line will push east of the
Appalachians after 8-10 PM, leaving behind leftover showers
along the higher terrain before destabilizing heading into the
overnight period. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s in the wake
of FROPA tonight, with another decent signal for low stratus and
fog across the area heading into Monday morning.

A brief lull in precipitation will take shape for the start of
the work week before a reinforcing cold front arrives Monday
afternoon. Its parent shortwave sinks down from the Upper Great
Lakes and sweeps the surface boundary through northern West
Virginia during the later half of the day. Dewpoints in the 60s
will still have residence over the area when the secondary front
arrives, prompting another round of showers and storms. The
severity threat will be less than what is being observed today,
but a marginal risk will be in effect for portions of southeast
Ohio and northern West Virginia.

Temperatures today and Monday ahead of the frontal boundaries
will boost up into the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands.
Overnight lows approach the mid 60s, further solidifying the
potential for fog for the Monday morning commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The reinforcing cold front makes its final passage overnight
Monday with precip wrapping up along the mountains in
accordance. Colder northwest air will arrive in its wake,
prompting highs to tumble on Tuesday into the upper 70s in the
lowlands and 60s for the highest elevations. Mostly dry weather
takes shape for a brief time on Tuesday before yet another
disturbance in a series of shortwaves plunges down into western
Pennsylvania during peak heating hours. This imposes potential
for showers and storms across our northeastern zones, but in a
much lesser capacity compared to the last several days.

Stout high pressure prevails upstream over the Great Lakes for
midweek, providing subsidence over the Central Appalachians to
finally allow a dry spell to take shape. Dewpoints will become
depleted as dry air settles overhead, allowing for a Chamber of
Commerce day on Wednesday with temperatures hovering in the mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

High pressure will remain parked nearby through the majority of
the work week with cooler than normal air in place. As this
surface feature exits off the Carolina coast, return flow will
transpire and usher in Gulf moisture in time for a system
gearing up for the start of the weekend. This northern stream
disturbance may tap into a tropical airmass emerging out of the
Gulf of Mexico, setting up for a wet weekend ahead.

Temperatures return to near seasonable levels by the end of the
work week within the southwesterly flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...
Showers and thunderstorms are quickly winding down across
southern WV and southwest VA this evening, and expect area to be
convection free by 03Z. Expect brief IFR conditions and strong
gusty winds in the vicinity of storms.

After 06Z, expecting widespread LIFR/VLIFR fog to form.
Conditions will gradually improve to VFR after 12-14Z Monday.
Winds on Monday will be mainly westerly, with gusts in the teens
to lower 20 kts expected to develop particularly after 17Z. IFR
or worse fog will be possible again Monday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog or stratus
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 06/14/21
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible most mornings this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...SL/MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
919 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-084-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>007-013>015-
024>027-033-034-515>520-150130-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Vinton-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-
Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
919 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West
Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and storms are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-085-WVZ008>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526-
150130-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Meigs-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
919 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia and
northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional showers and storms are possible on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1027 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW CHARLESTON        38.31N  81.65W
06/13/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG STONE ROAD AND OVERBROOK ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100755

SL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1028 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW SISSONVILLE       38.46N  81.67W
06/13/2021                   KANAWHA            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG AARONS FORK ROAD IN SISSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100756

SL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUFFALO                 38.61N  81.98W
06/13/2021                   PUTNAM             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN IN BUFFALO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100757

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ROCKPORT           39.06N  81.54W
06/13/2021                   WOOD               WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURES ON TWITTER INDICATE DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A
            BARN, AS WELL AS SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100758

SL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1042 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEROLD                  38.57N  80.81W
06/13/2021                   BRAXTON            WV   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN. PICTURES POSTED TO SOCIAL
            MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100759

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1233 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

WVZ524-140630-
Southeast Pocahontas-
1233 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

...KNAPPS CREEK RUNNING HIGH DUE TO HEAVY RAIN...

At 1226 AM EDT, the stream gage at Huntersville showed Knapps Creek
near its bankfull stage, at 9.3 feet. At 9 feet, farmland, fields and
out buildings next to Knapp Creek and Browns Creek start to flood.

Locations impacted include...
Huntersville, Minnehaha Springs.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall was causing elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. The water depth may be too
great to allow your car to cross safely. It takes only a few inches
of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away. Move to higher
ground.

LAT...LON 3820 8007 3822 8007 3823 8003 3819 7993
      3816 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 153DEG 1KT 3821 8012

12