Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
839 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer-like tropical airmass continues through the week with
daily scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 835 PM Tuesday...

Adjusted PoPs to carry showers and a few thunderstorms northeast
through the area tonight. Instability should wane ahead of the
showers and thunderstorms as the sun sets, and vanishes behind
the leading edge. Still appears next round of showers, along
with a few thunderstorms, arrives Wednesday morning in a theta e
feed ahead of stacked low pressure approaching from the west,
the thunderstorms becoming more numerous throughout the area
Wednesday afternoon.

As of 243 PM Tuesday...

A very moist airmass is in full control as deep southerly flow is
locked in across the region with the area positioned between an
upper level low in the mid Mississippi Valley and upper ridging in
the western Atlantic. This very moist airmass combined with MLCAPE
values in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range has led to widely scattered
showers and storms across the area today, but storms should
remain below severe criteria given the weak shear and poor mid
level lapse rates. That said, highly efficient rainfall will
occur with any of this activity in an environment of anomalously
high PWATs and deep warm cloud depths, allowing warm rain
processes to dominate. Thus, localized torrential downpours will
continue to be the primary risk with this activity through the
remainder of the day, especially in any of the deeper convection
that develops.

There should be some decrease in precipitation coverage this evening
with the loss of peak heating, but any relative lull in activity may
be brief as the aforementioned upper low in the mid Mississippi
Valley shifts towards IL/IN tonight and weak impulses aloft pushing
through the area help to maintain areas of showers and embedded
storms. There also could be some patchy valley fog tonight
across parts of the area, especially in locations that receive
heavy downpours from today's activity but overall confidence in
placement of this is not too high at this time. Otherwise,
precipitation coverage should increase further on Wednesday
compared to today due to the slowly approaching upper low an
even greater surge of moisture streams in, which will send
PWATs to 2" or even higher as a 25-30 kt LLJ develops. In fact,
latest forecast soundings for Wednesday depict profiles should
be even more moist than today with deep cloud depths, higher
mean RH values, and tall/skinny CAPE profiles. Thus, localized
torrential downpours will once again be the main concern with
any precipitation activity on Wednesday, and some localized
hydro issues can't be ruled out, particularly in low lying and
poor drainage areas. Otherwise, with weak shear values remaining
in place, severe weather chances should remain on the low side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...

The period begins with a mid-level disturbance continuing to affect
the region. This disturbance should slowly slide to the south and
east throughout Thursday and Friday, but will allow for the region
to continue to see the chance for scattered showers/storms
throughout the period. While the threat for severe weather will
remain on the low side, given the airmass in place with precipitable
water values in excess of 1.6", and recent heavy rainfall in spots,
isolated water issues will be a possibility. High temperatures for
the period will range from the low to mid 80s in the lowlands, with
60s and 70s for the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 255 PM Tuesday...

The pattern will become less active for the weekend in the wake of a
mid-level disturbance. Even so, the threat for isolated/scattered
diurnal showers/storms will remain, with a continuation of warm
temperatures to the tune of highs in the mid 80s in the
lowlands and 60/70s at higher elevations. The beginning of next
week is a bit more uncertain, with some of the guidance shifting
the ridge further west, with a trough trying to settle in
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 835 PM Tuesday...

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue moving northeast
through east central Ohio and WV while weakening tonight, with
areas of fog most likely forming where ever rain occurs. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will move into the middle
Ohio Valley first thing Wednesday morning, and then spread into
the central Appalachians early Wednesday afternoon.

HTS is likely to have varying visibility until 06Z-07Z, when
dense fog is forecast to settle in. That fog should thin near
dawn, but another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely
to arrive there shortly thereafter, with at least MVFR impacts.

EKN is more likely to get fog than stratus overnight tonight,
unless the rain makes it there, which would make stratus more
likely in its wake overnight. MVFR mist is coded for the other
sites CRW, PKB, CKB and BKW overnight, but IFR in fog is more
likely for a particular site if it receives measurable rain
tonight.

Otherwise MVFR stratocu is forecast Wednesday morning, before
showers and thunderstorms bring MVFR or worse impacts at times
Wednesday midday and afternoon, spreading from west to east.

Surface flow will be light and variable amid, oddly enough,
surface high pressure. Light mainly west flow aloft tonight will
become southwest on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Valley fog formation could vary overnight.
Conditions could vary Wednesday, from fog and stratus lifting
first thing in the morning, to MVFR stratocu Wednesday morning,
and showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous from west
to east during the day.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 06/09/21
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions could occur Wednesday night into Friday in
showers and thunderstorms, and in overnight/early morning fog
and stratus during the overnight and early morning hours Thursday
through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RG/04
NEAR TERM...TRM/RG
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-090745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
341 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon and evening through the weekend. While severe weather is
not currently expected, locally heavy downpours may occur with slow
moving thunderstorms which could result in localized high water
issues. The potential for excessive rainfall is expected to become
more likely further into the week as areas that receive plenty of
rainfall in the first half of the week will be more susceptible to
flooding issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WVZ013-025-026-090015-
Boone-Lincoln-Logan-
742 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LINCOLN...
CENTRAL LOGAN AND NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 742 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Gill to 6 miles east of Chief Logan
State. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Man, Van, Spurlockville, Harts, Chief
Logan State, Gill, Julian, Mount Gay-Shamrock, Alum Creek, Danville,
West Logan, Mitchell Heights, Mount Gay, Turtle Creek, Prenter,
Palermo and Sharples.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 29 and 62, and near mile
marker 64.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3804 8219 3829 8204 3827 8199 3831 8194
      3823 8183 3822 8182 3822 8184 3819 8182
      3818 8180 3821 8181 3821 8180 3804 8156
      3772 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 214DEG 18KT 3806 8210 3791 8190

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE CLINTWOOD          37.20N  82.39W
06/08/2021  E3.00 INCH       DICKENSON          VA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            APPROXIMATELY 3 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 PM. PICTURE OF
            RAIN GAUGE SHOWS JUST OVER 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
            HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100674

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
936 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGTON              38.41N  82.43W
06/08/2021                   CABELL             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG 16TH STREET, ROUTE 10.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100675

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUNTINGTON              38.41N  82.43W
06/08/2021                   CABELL             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG 16TH STREET, ROUTE 10. THERE WAS
            ALSO SOME HIGH WASTER, BUT NO STREETS WERE CLOSED.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100675

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
954 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WVZ516>520-090230-
Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Northwest
Nicholas-Northwest Fayette-
954 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
NICHOLAS...NORTHEASTERN RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 953 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Gauley Bridge to Oak Hill to 6 miles
east of Piney View. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Fayetteville, Rainelle, Babcock State Park, Oak Hill,
Mount Hope, Ansted, Gauley Bridge, Hawks Nest State Park, Piney View,
Stanaford, Bradley, Thurmond, Swiss, Kesslers Cross Lanes, Drennan
and Mount Nebo.

This includes Route 19 between mile markers 5 and 39.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3785 8117 3788 8113 3788 8120 3792 8123
      3820 8122 3836 8104 3842 8091 3818 8083
      3809 8078 3810 8088 3808 8089 3805 8085
      3806 8081 3803 8083 3802 8080 3798 8077
      3795 8081 3792 8079 3777 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 225DEG 23KT 3821 8113 3799 8112 3788 8103

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1027 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

WVZ027-028-519-521-090300-
Clay-Northwest Webster-Northwest Nicholas-Braxton-
1027 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL NICHOLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAXTON...NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES...

At 1027 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Birch River,
or 8 miles southwest of Sutton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Webster Springs, Gassaway, Addison (Webster Springs), Birch
River, Flatwoods, Widen, Diana, Frametown, Strange Creek, Muddlety,
Boggs, Little Birch, Heaters, Centralia and Erbacon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 79 between mile markers 48 and 74.
 Route 19 between mile markers 48 and 68.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

LAT...LON 3836 8085 3861 8095 3884 8059 3846 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 244DEG 18KT 3855 8078

20