Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
255 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front late Thursday, followed by high pressure into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

Unstable conditions are present over the area this afternoon as
a result of daytime heating and high moisture. Scattered
showers have already developed in the southwest portion of the
CWA this afternoon, and scattered showers and storms will likely
become more widespread this evening. Chances for rain and some
storms will continue into through the night as a shortwave
trough passes across the northern portion of the CWA. With
precipitable water values projected to be in the in the
1.25-1.75" range tonight, heavy rain is possible with any
storms.

On Thursday, a cold front will slowly progress eastward towards
the area and eventually move through late in the day. Showers
and storms are expected to develop ahead of and along the
front. At present, there is a marginal risk for isolated severe
storms to develop with wind being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Showers and storms will be ongoing across the area Thursday
evening as the cold front crosses. Front should be progressive
by this time as the surface low will have tracked into southeast
PA with the upper trof amplification pivoting into the western
OH Valley. Some of the convection could be on the strong side
early in the evening with the potential for damaging winds along
a somewhat linear axis or QLCS structure. Locally heavy rain
will also be noted which may result in some urban ponding and
high water in the typical low lying trouble spots. The better
chance for creek flooding would be across southeast OH where
event totals of 1-2" may occur. However, this area has generally
been dry over the past few weeks such that it would take a
period of training as the surface wave slides by in the near
term to cause issues.

A decent post frontal cool airmass will overspread the area
Friday and linger into Saturday. Friday may start with abundant
sunshine but I expect stratocu to fill the sky with daytime
heating amid strong CAA followed by some clearing for Friday
night into Saturday. Daytime temperatures will average 8-12
degrees below normal with overnight lows dropping into frost
territory Friday night/Saturday morning for the hollows and
sheltered valleys. Saturday night will be a bit warmer as WAA
aloft, though a strong ridge/valley split will be noted.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Wednesday...

Pattern quickly changes to one characterized by a moist
southwest flow into mid week with rounds of showers/storms to
affect the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers have developed to the southwest (near HTS) this
afternoon. Initially, shower and storm coverage is expected to
be minimal, so have maintained VCSH/VCTS early in the period.
Showers and thunderstorms will then become more widespread as
the day progresses and heavy rain is possible overnight. Rain
will likely continue for the remainder of the period as a cold
front approaches from the west.

VFR conditions should continue this afternoon into tonight,
though a brief reduction in CIG/VIS is possible if a shower or
storm directly impacts a terminal. Ceilings will then gradually
lower into MVFR late tonight into Thursday and reduced
visibilities are likely during heavier rain. For the northern
sites (PKB, CKB, EKN), MVFR conditions are expected to continue
into Thursday, while some improvement may occur further south.

Southwest winds around 5-15KTs are expected during this period.
Gusts around 20 KTs will continue this afternoon and evening,
relax overnight, and then again strengthen again during the day
Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Moderate.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Scattered showers/storms may briefly reduce
CIGs/VIS if directly impacting a terminal. At EKN/CKB/PKB,
conditions may further lower to IFR overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers/storms Thursday through Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...30/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JLB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
039-040-523-291900-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Pocahontas-
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West
Virginia, northern West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather for this afternoon and
evening, with the main threats being isolated occurrence of damaging
winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday through
Thursday night, with the main threat being isolated occurrences of
damaging winds.

In addition, isolated high water impacts may occur Thursday with any
slow moving thunderstorms.

Patchy frost is possible late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. A frost advisory may eventually be needed for the northern
portions of the area and southeast Ohio.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-524-525-291900-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Patchy frost is possible late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. A frost advisory may eventually be needed for the northern
portions of the area with a freeze warning potential for the northern
mountain valleys.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ515-517-519-521-526-291900-
Northwest Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Randolph-
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather for this afternoon and
evening, with the main threats being isolated occurrence of damaging
winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday through
Thursday night, with the main threat being isolated occurrences of
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ516-518-520-522-291900-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Fayette-Southeast Nicholas-
Southeast Webster-
249 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OHZ066-067-282130-
Morgan-Perry-
507 PM EDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

At 505 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Perry State
Forest, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways. Prepare for a quick drop in visibility, and hydroplaning.

Locations impacted include...
Perry State Forest and Crooksville.

LAT...LON 3982 8217 3981 8207 3977 8208 3976 8191
      3973 8192 3974 8227 3984 8226 3986 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 272DEG 21KT 3980 8218

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