Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
308 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier tonight with slight chances for showers along the
mountains. Frontal system Saturday. Drier into Sunday/Monday,
cold front mid week, cooler for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 249 PM Friday...

A broad dry line associated with a mother low pressure system
over WI will continue to influence the weather through tonight.
Any convection will develop along the eastern mountains and will
dissipate quickly by sunset.

Expect a tranquil night starting with mostly clear skies into
the overnight hours. Patchy dense fog will be possible over
areas that received rainfall and along some river valleys across
the east and south. Clouds will increase and thicken during
the predawn hours when a warm front lifts north into the
afternoon hours. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be
possible with this front Saturday. Basically the entire area is
under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Saturday.

Temperatures tonight will remain mild, generally in the 50s. For
Saturday, mid to upper 70s are expected for the lowlands, some
areas potentially reaching up into the 80s, with upper 50s to
lower 70s for the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish Saturday
night into Sunday morning as the cold front exits to the east
and the parent low pressure system moves up into the Great Lakes
region. Across the northern half of the CWA, showers may
continue for the better part of the day Sunday before coming to
an end. Surface level high pressure begins edging into the area
from the south leading to much drier conditions by late in the
day. A weak front is then projected to pass through Monday
night, though mostly dry conditions are expected to continue.

Temperatures should remain near to above normal throughout the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

The long term period starts off dry with temperatures remaining
near to above normal. By mid to late week, models indicate low
pressure will drop down from Canada bringing showers into the
area for the back half of the week; however, there is some
uncertainty in how this will play out. The GFS shows a single
low pressure system that scoops down into the area and then
exits off the Atlantic coast on Friday, while the ECMWF shows
the main low tracking north of the area with several shortwaves
moving across the area. For now have maintained a consensus
solution that keeps slight chance to chance PoPs in the grids
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Friday...

Satellite imagery suggests the area is under the influence of a
huge dry slot associated with broad low pressure system located
far away over WI. Plenty of sunshine will prevail this
afternoon under light south to southwest flow. Therefore,
widespread VFR conditions are expected through at least 12Z
Saturday.

The northern stream low pressure lifts north into Canada later
on Saturday, while a southern stream low pressure lifts northeast
into the OH Valley. This second low will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area during the day Saturday into Sunday.
Model consensus suggests pcpn will arrive or develop after
15-18Z, spreading from west to east Saturday. Periods of
MVFR/IFR will accompany the heavier storms. There is a marginal
risk for severe storms Saturday, with the main threat being
damaging winds.

Light south southwest winds gusting up to 17 knots will subside
this evening becoming light and variable.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated showers could develop to affect EKN
later this afternoon or evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Saturday
night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
410 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-100815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
410 AM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1234 PM EDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     HAIL             EDEN                    38.74N  80.33W
04/09/2021  M0.75 INCH       UPSHUR             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND, WITH PENNY SIZE HAIL
            MIXED IN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100607

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
148 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

WVZ523-524-091830-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Pocahontas-
148 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY...

At 148 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Marlinton,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marlinton, Minnehaha Springs and Frost.

LAT...LON 3835 7974 3836 7976 3834 7977 3831 7981
      3827 7979 3826 7981 3825 7982 3824 7984
      3819 7990 3819 7992 3815 7993 3810 8006
      3820 8013 3842 7976 3836 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 245DEG 16KT 3818 8003

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 PM EDT FRI APR 09 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             1 S MINNEHAHA SPRINGS   38.15N  79.98W
04/09/2021  E1.00 INCH       POCAHONTAS         WV   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL. ALSO A LOT OF
            SMALL HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX2100608

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
440 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

WVZ526-092115-
Southeast Randolph-
440 PM EDT Fri Apr 9 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 440 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 14 miles east of
Dailey, or 15 miles southeast of Elkins, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Randolph County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3875 7953 3873 7955 3872 7965 3882 7969
      3887 7951 3884 7954 3883 7952 3882 7953
      3879 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 235DEG 9KT 3877 7964

HART