Heat Advisory 4, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Gallia County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Mason County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

193 
WWUS71 KRLX 252201
NPWRLX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
601 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>010-013>019-028-029-252315-
/O.CAN.KRLX.HT.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210825T2300Z/
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Braxton-Gilmer-
Including the cities of Flatwoods, Raceland, Russell, Grayson, 
Olive Hill, Carter Caves State Park, Grayson Lake State Park, 
Ashland, Cannonsburg, Louisa, Yatesville Lake State Park, 
Gallipolis, Ironton, Lake Vesuvius, South Point, Kenova, Ceredo, 
Wayne, Huntington, Point Pleasant, New Haven, Ravenswood, Ripley,
Parkersburg, Vienna, St. Marys, Belmont, Harts, Alum Creek, 
Hamlin, Teays Valley, Hurricane, Charleston, South Charleston, 
Saint Albans, Spencer, Elizabeth, Grantsville, Harrisville, 
Pennsboro, Sutton, Gassaway, Burnsville, and Glenville
601 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Heat index values have fallen below advisory criteria. As a
result, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
642 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The daily chance for late day showers and thunderstorms returns
today amid the continued heat wave, and weak upper level
disturbances. Upper level ridge builds Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday...

Held off on heat advisory pending upstream clouds and
thunderstorm development today, and went with an SPS for now.
Forecast otherwise on track, with debris cloud from the
weakening upstream thunderstorm complex on the northwest edge of
the forecast area.

As of 420 AM Wednesday...

A weakness in the ridge over the central Appalachians and Ohio
Valley allows for return of convection today. Initially, this
may come from a convective complex upstream, over the lower
Great Lakes, which was slowly weakening, and should weaken
further on cloud top warming after sunrise.

While a shower or thunderstorm may reach far northwest portions
of the forecast ara this morning, the better chance will be
when thunderstorms fire in the afternoon heat, with the help of
differential heating created by debris cloud, and possibly even
outflow boundaries. With the high humidity and mid/upper level
weakness over the area, there may be a few cells lingering well
into the night tonight. All of this complicates the fog forecast
for tonight, with clouds being an impediment but rain later
today or tonight being an added impetus.

Using a combination of the RAP and central guidance for
temperatures, a special weather statement will likely be needed
for excessive heat today, but the need for a heat advisory may
be limited by at least debris cloud arriving from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Wednesday...

Shortwave will move southeast across the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms,
with more coverage than in recent days. Upper ridge will begin
to build across the eastern U.S. Friday into the weekend, with
continued hot and humid conditions, along with storms from
passing disturbances and diurnal heating. Storms during the
period will contain heavy downpours with anomalously high
moisture content air, and be slow to move. Heat indices during
the period will continue to top out in the mid to upper 90s,
even around 100 in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Upper ridge will remain in control for Sunday. However, by early
next week, an upper trough will take hold across the area, along
with a sfc front sagging south into the area. Showers and storms
will continue across the area during the period, with increased
chances later Monday into Tuesday, as the front moves south into
the region, and waves moving along the front help to enhance
chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday...

With less cloud to impede fog early on compared with recent
nights, IFR valley fog formed at HTS, CRW, CKB and EKN but not
PKB, where dense fog had been common the past few morning. Sites
will come out of IFR 12Z-13Z if not already out by 12Z, mixing
briefly into stratus. Any MVFR mist PKB and BKW will also
dissipate by 13Z.

There is a chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
today along and west of the Ohio River, and in the mountains,
with a slight chance in between, across much of the WV
lowlands. The complex of storms over the Great Lakes and midwest
weakened early this morning as it approached the middle Ohio
Valley early morning, but may help foster new thunderstorm
development today as a result of outflow boundaries and even
differential heating caused by leftover debris cloud, which
creates boundaries.

The fog forecast for tonight may be complicated by the return
of convection and debris cloud this period, with clouds being
an impediment but rain later today or tonight being an added
impetus.

Flow surface and aloft will be light and variable, except gusty
and variable in and near any afternoon thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog/stratus lifting and burning
off first thing this morning may vary. TAFs may need amended if
confidence increases on a direct hit this afternoon into
tonight. Timing, locations and intensity of valley fog forming
overnight tonight may vary from forecast, depending on rain
later today and tonight, and clouds overnight tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR valley fog possible each morning through this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
524 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>010-013>019-028-029-260930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Braxton-Gilmer-
524 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and much of the West Virginia lowlands.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Depending on the potential development of thunderstorms, a heat
advisory may be needed for heat indices reaching the lower 100s this
afternoon. Thunderstorms, or at least associated cloudiness, may
limit the heat today. The thunderstorms could be strong and heavy
this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Afternoon heat indices could approach 100 degrees, and afternoon or
evening thunderstorms could be strong and heavy, Thursday into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ011-020-024>027-030>032-039-040-260930-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Tyler-
Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-
524 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Depending on the potential development of thunderstorms, heat
indices could approach 100 degrees this afternoon. Thunderstorms, or
at least associated cloudiness, may limit the heat today. The
thunderstorms could be strong and heavy this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Afternoon heat indices could approach 100 degrees, and afternoon or
evening thunderstorms could be strong and heavy, Thursday into the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515>526-260930-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
524 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
the West Virginia mountains.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Afternoon or evening thunderstorms could be strong and heavy.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Afternoon or evening thunderstorms could be strong and heavy Thursday
into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TRM / SL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>010-013>019-
024>029-251600-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLATWOODS, RACELAND, RUSSELL, GRAYSON,
OLIVE HILL, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK,
ASHLAND, CANNONSBURG, LOUISA, YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK,
NEW LEXINGTON, CROOKSVILLE, SOMERSET, MCCONNELSVILLE, STOCKPORT,
ATHENS, MARIETTA, BELPRE, JACKSON, WELLSTON, OAK HILL, MCARTHUR,
HAMDEN, POMEROY, GALLIPOLIS, IRONTON, LAKE VESUVIUS, SOUTH POINT,
KENOVA, CEREDO, WAYNE, HUNTINGTON, POINT PLEASANT, NEW HAVEN,
RAVENSWOOD, RIPLEY, PARKERSBURG, VIENNA, ST. MARYS, BELMONT,
HARTS, ALUM CREEK, HAMLIN, TEAYS VALLEY, HURRICANE, CHARLESTON,
SOUTH CHARLESTON, SAINT ALBANS, SPENCER, ELIZABETH, GRANTSVILLE,
HARRISVILLE, PENNSBORO, WILLIAMSON, LOGAN, CHAPMANVILLE, MAN,
MADISON, CLAY, SUTTON, GASSAWAY, BURNSVILLE, AND GLENVILLE
550 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021

High temperatures and humidity will likely result in heat indices
reaching the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. This could cause
heat related health problems. Heat indices may reach the lower
100s for part of the area, depending on the potential development
of thunderstorms. A heat advisory may be needed for where it
appears sufficient heating will occur.

If you have to be outdoors, please take the necessary precautions
to protect yourself from heat related illnesses. Limit strenuous
activities, especially during the heat of the afternoon. Avoid
prolonged work in the sun, or in poorly ventilated areas. Drink
plenty of non-alcoholic beverages. Take breaks in the shade, or in
an air-conditioned building.

Check up on relatives and neighbors. The very young and the
elderly are especially vulnerable to the heat. Also, never leave
children or pets in a closed vehicle unattended under any
circumstances.

TRM