Alert archive / West Virginia / Areal Flood Warnings in 2021

Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Charleston, WV

January 25, 20217 counties in West Virginia; Buchanan County, Dickenson County, Virginia

NWS Charleston, WV issued this areal flood warning at Jan 25, 2021, 10:56 PM EST for 7 counties in West Virginia; Buchanan County, Dickenson County, Virginia. It was in force for 9 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 25, 2021, 10:56 PM EST (03:56 UTC)
Expired
Jan 26, 2021, 8:00 AM EST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Charleston, WV
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Buchanan County, VA, Dickenson County, VA, Boone County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Logan County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 26, 3:25 AM ESTFLOODLester, WVWATER ACROSS BOTH LANES IN THE 100 BLOCK OF CENTRAL AVENUE.
Jan 26, 3:30 AM ESTFLOODGhent, WVSIX INCHES OF WATER ACROSS BOTH LANES IN THE 3500 BLOCK OF FLAT TOP ROAD.
Jan 26, 6:39 AM ESTFLOODOceana, WVFIRE DEPARTMENT THROUGH MEDIA REPORTED FLOODING NEAR THE WESTSIDE HIGH SCHOOL AND THE LYNCO POST OFFICE. ONE CAR WAS FLOATING IN THE WATER AND STRANDED NEAR WESTSIDE. A FIRE DEPAARTMENT CREW CARRIED OUT A SUCCESSFUL WATER RESCUE OF THE PEOPLE IN THAT VEHINCLE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-01-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-01-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 577 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
577 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
833 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

163 
WGUS41 KRLX 260356
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1056 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-260645-
/O.NEW.KRLX.FA.W.0001.210126T0356Z-210126T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
1056 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...
  Central Boone County in central West Virginia...
  Southwestern Fayette County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Raleigh County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Logan County in southern West Virginia...
  McDowell County in southern West Virginia...
  Mingo County in southern West Virginia...
  Wyoming County in southern West Virginia...

* Until 145 AM EST.

* At 1056 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to 
  thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in 
  the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

MEK
6 follow-up statements
136 
WGUS81 KRLX 260549
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1249 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-260645-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
1249 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EST EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR BUCHANAN, DICKENSON, CENTRAL BOONE, SOUTHWESTERN 
FAYETTE, RALEIGH, LOGAN, MCDOWELL, MINGO AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

At 1249 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated between 1.5 and 2 inches of 
rain have fallen Monday and Monday night. There was a request for 
high water signs in Matwan around 11:30 PM. Otherwise, high water on 
roads Monday evening, particularly in Raleigh County, had receded. 
Streams continue to rise, so new flooding remains a possibility.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM
549 
WGUS41 KRLX 260640
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-261000-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
140 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...
  Central Boone County in central West Virginia...
  Southwestern Fayette County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Raleigh County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Logan County in southern West Virginia...
  McDowell County in southern West Virginia...
  Mingo County in southern West Virginia...
  Wyoming County in southern West Virginia...

* Until 500 AM EST.

* At 140 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated between 1.5 and 2 inches of 
  rain have fallen Monday and Monday night. High water on 
  roads Monday evening had receded. However, with rainfall ongoing, 
  although tapering off, streams continue to rise, and new flooding 
  remains a possibility.


* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

Additional rainfall amounts should be under 0.5 inches in the warned 
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM
022 
WGUS81 KRLX 260845
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-261000-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
345 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR BUCHANAN, DICKENSON, CENTRAL BOONE, SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE, 
RALEIGH, LOGAN, MCDOWELL, MINGO AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

At 345 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated between 1.5 and 2 inches of 
rain have fallen Monday and Monday night. The heaviest of the rain 
is over. However, streams continue to rise, and new flooding remains 
a possibility early this morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM
011 
WGUS41 KRLX 260951
FLWRLX

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Charleston WV
451 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-261300-
/O.EXT.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
451 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Charleston has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Buchanan County in southwestern Virginia...
  Dickenson County in southwestern Virginia...
  Central Boone County in central West Virginia...
  Southwestern Fayette County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Raleigh County in southeastern West Virginia...
  Logan County in southern West Virginia...
  McDowell County in southern West Virginia...
  Mingo County in southern West Virginia...
  Wyoming County in southern West Virginia...

* Until 800 AM EST.

* At 451 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated between 1.5 and 2 inches of 
  rain have fallen Monday and Monday night. While the rain had ended,  
  streams continue to rise, and new flooding remains a possibility, 
  which could be encountered as day breaks and traffic increases.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM
172 
WGUS81 KRLX 261223
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
723 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-261300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
723 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
BUCHANAN, DICKENSON, CENTRAL BOONE, SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE, RALEIGH, 
LOGAN, MCDOWELL, MINGO AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

At 723 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated between 1.5 and 2 inches of 
rain have fallen Monday and Monday night. While the rain had long 
since ended,  streams continue to rise, and new flooding remains a 
possibility, which could be encountered as day breaks and traffic 
increases. Tributaries and upper portions of the Guyandotte and Tug 
Fork Rivers were nearing bankfull particularly at Clear Fork feeding 
into the Guyandotte, and Bradshaw on the Tug Fork.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Beckley, Welch, Logan, Clintwood, Grundy, Pineville, Haysi, Breaks 
  Interstate, Davenport, John Flannagan Lake, Mullens, Mount Hope, 
  Mabscott, Oceana, Sophia, Chapmanville, Gary, War, Man and 
  Delbarton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by 
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely. You may 
also report severe weather by posting your report to the Charleston 
West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or by using 
the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM
367 
WGUS81 KRLX 261300
FLSRLX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
800 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

VAC027-051-WVC005-019-045-047-059-081-109-261310-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-Dickenson VA-Boone WV-Fayette WV-Logan WV-McDowell WV-
Mingo WV-Raleigh WV-Wyoming WV-
800 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR BUCHANAN, DICKENSON, CENTRAL BOONE, 
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE, RALEIGH, LOGAN, MCDOWELL, MINGO AND WYOMING 
COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has long since ended. Flood waters were receding and 
streams were beginning to crest. Flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures 
particularly in Oceana.

LAT...LON 3713 8255 3720 8255 3727 8235 3754 8197
      3755 8213 3786 8242 3794 8230 3808 8154
      3789 8129 3788 8108 3777 8089 3768 8088
      3771 8098 3759 8109 3758 8120 3727 8142
      3721 8155 3724 8174 3705 8204 3696 8235

$$

TRM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Jan 25, 9:49 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 25, 9:49 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
949 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain largely ends by Tuesday morning. Another system
tracks south of the area Wednesday night, likely bringing rain
changing to snow to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 945 PM Monday...

Next round of showers moving through the southern half of the
CWA at this hour. Do not need any more rain in these areas, with
some creeks/streams already starting to creep to then bankfull
mark, especially in Wayne/Lincoln counties. Some slightly
stronger convective elements here as well, and have seen a
lightning strike or two approaching the Tug Fork Valley. Mainly
concerned with the increased rainfall rates in some of the
cells, although they are generally brief and quick to exit any
one location.Only one river gage in action stage right now,
Griffithsville in Lincoln County, but have seen strong rises on
the Twelvepole Creek and other locations on the Mud in western
West Virginia.

As of 225 PM Monday...

Elected to go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory for
southeast Ohio where surface temperatures continue to linger
near the freezing mark. While ice accumulations will mainly be
confined to exposed surfaces (trees and lines), could see some
slippery spots developing on untreated roadways and sidewalks.

As of 115 PM Monday...

Precipitation shield ahead of the warm front continues to spread
north across the region at this hour. Across southeast Ohio,
temperatures have struggled to get away from their morning values of
30 to 32F and could see a brief period of freezing rain prior to
switching over to rain. With filtered IR through the ample clouds,
would expect minimal impacts on treated roadways and dark
surfaces, but slick spots could briefly develop on untreated,
especially concrete surfaces.

Difficult to ascertain exact strength of the warm nose over the
higher terrain at this hour, and cameras not much help either with
precip shield still on the doorstep. Could still see some high
elevation snow this afternoon based on forecast soundings and do
have an inch or so for the highest ridges of Pocahontas and
Randolph County prior to hydrometeors beginning to completely
melt in the warm air aloft.

As the warm front continues to lift north tonight, will see
steepening mid-level lapse rates sourced from the high desert of
northern Mexico beginning to work their way into the region. While
frontal forcing will be waning somewhat until the approach of a cold
front early Tuesday, should have enough dynamic forcing associated
with the jet to overturn (via thunderstorms) these with some
convective enhancement of rainfall rates possible. The area of most
concern will be in the northern mountains where CAD coupled with
cooling via forced ascent up the eastern slopes may be sufficient to
bring surface temperatures back below freezing. Should this occur,
at least a brief period of freezing rain, perhaps heavy at times may
occur, mainly focused along the upper eastern slopes in areas
favored for CAD. Overall, freezing rain coverage in the mountain
zones of Pocahontas and Randolph county will be limited to
these locations with other spots in the zones largely above
freezing. Do have some localized amounts marginally exceeding
warning criteria, but given limited coverage and limited
confidence in surface temperatures, felt an advisory was more
appropriate for now. Could see some lingering light freezing
rain into early Wednesday, but the biggest threat for any more
substantial impacts will be limited to the 8 PM to 2 AM time
frame tonight.

Run-off out of the mountains will also be a concern with a limited
snow pack struggling to soak up rain that falls and frozen ground
ensuring most of what isn't picked up by the snow pack quickly ends
up in streams, creeks and rivers. While widespread issues are not
expected, convectively enhanced rainfall rates could yield some
minor flooding in any flashier mountain basins.

Elsewhere, expecting just a cold rain through this afternoon
accumulations generally 1 to 1.5 inches. Do not anticipate any
significant flooding issues with these amounts given antecedent dry
conditions and largely unfrozen ground.

Should see good warming in typical warm wedge locations tonight as
isentropic downglide with easterly/southeasterly flow over the
higher terrain assists in transporting the base of a stout elevated
mixed layer on west-southwesterly flow to the surface. Here in
Charleston, seems pretty reasonable to go to sleep with
temperatures in the lower 40s this evening and wake up to
temperatures around 50.

Tuesday will be dry for much of the area, however wrap-around
moisture along with a weak disturbance wrapping around the backside
of the departing low will likely yield low clouds/drizzle for our
northern WV and southeastern OH counties through much of the the
day. This will also stymie their ability to warm up, reaching
only the mid 40s while central WV makes it into the mid to upper
50s and the southern coalfield perhaps touch 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 151 PM Monday...

Models continue to suggest a secondary cold front will push
south of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Based on model
soundings, still appears that there will be a return of the
stratus beneath the low frontal inversion, along with drizzle
early Tuesday night across far northern portions of the area,
especially portions of southeast Ohio.

An upper level trof will approach the region from the west
Wednesday and then quickly push east Wednesday night. The
associated surface low, which will develop over the gulf
coastal states, will move northeast into the Atlantic Ocean off
of the Carolinas Wednesday night.

The end result should be precipitation overspreading much of the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Most of the precipitation
should fall across our VA counties as well as West Virginia
locations generally south and east of I-79 and I-64.

It will be cooler on Wednesday than what is expected tomorrow.
However, readings should still be above freezing in most
locations. The exception will be across the highest elevations
where readings should be around freezing.

Because of the speed of the system and the warm low-level
temperatures, have cut back on snowfall amounts on Wednesday.

The precipitation should change to snow just about everywhere
Wednesday night as colder air filters into the area.

Outside of the possibility of some snow showers in the favored
upslope areas early, the remainder of the region should be dry
Thursday with temperatures well below normal.

Current thinking is that when the storm is over, portions of
the mountains could be around 2 inches of snow with lessor
amounts across the adjacent counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1141 AM Monday...

Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft should result
in dry weather Thursday night through Friday night.

The next system tracks north of the area this weekend. Long
range models are handling the speed of the next system
differently with the Canadian model being the fastest and the
ECMWF being a bit slower. Because of this uncertainty, have gone
with a model blend.

Precipitation should spread across the region late Saturday with
mainly rain to the area.  There may be snow or a wintry mix on
the front end late Saturday into Saturday night. Rain should
then prevail across the lowlands with snow generally limited to
the higher elevations on Sunday.

As the system moves east, colder air should filter into the
area with the precipitation changing back to snow in many
locations Sunday night into Monday.

The precipitation chances will decrease rapidly from the west as
high pressure once again takes control.

In advance of this system, expect a warming trend with readings
near 50 degrees across the southern coalfields on Sunday. Monday
should be colder with readings closer to seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 PM Monday...

IFR or worse dominates the front half of the forecast period for
all terminals as rain pushes through the region. Expecting
gradual increases in the flight categories as winds shift around
to the WSW and increase in speed after 16Z Tuesday. Observations
will likely fluctuate in and out of rain through 09Z Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High on flight categories, medium on timing.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN might downslope and improve to MVFR or
VFR at times.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 01/26/21
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in snow late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, especially in and near the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/JP
NEAR TERM...26/JP
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 25, 6:55 PM EST, 4 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
655 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>008-013>018-024>030-033-
034-039-515>522-524-525-270000-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-
Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-
655 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches into tonight poses mainly a minor
areal flood risk. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
across much of this area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ523-526-270000-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
655 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

There is a slight winter storm threat for Wednesday night into
Thursday. If the threat materializes, it may cause travel
disruptions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-WVZ009>011-019-020-031-032-040-270000-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Ritchie-Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
655 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 25, 5:22 PM EST, 5 hours 34 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
522 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>026-260030-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF FLATWOODS, RACELAND, RUSSELL, GRAYSON,
OLIVE HILL, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK,
ASHLAND, CANNONSBURG, LOUISA, YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK,
IRONTON, LAKE VESUVIUS, SOUTH POINT, KENOVA, CEREDO, WAYNE,
HUNTINGTON, HARTS, ALUM CREEK, HAMLIN, TEAYS VALLEY, HURRICANE,
CHARLESTON, SOUTH CHARLESTON, SAINT ALBANS, WILLIAMSON, LOGAN,
CHAPMANVILLE, MAN, AND MADISON
522 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...BURST OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...

Heavy rain pressing through the area late this afternoon and
into the evening has prompted accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches.
Localized high water issues could arise over the next few hours as
well as a response in low lying creeks and streams. Watch for
standing water on roadways and reduce speed to avoid
hydroplaning. Rain will gradually taper off overnight.
Special weather statement, Jan 25, 5:59 PM EST, 4 hours 57 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
559 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

VAZ003-004-WVZ027-033-034-515>520-260030-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-NORTHWEST RALEIGH-
SOUTHEAST RALEIGH-NORTHWEST FAYETTE-SOUTHEAST FAYETTE-
NORTHWEST NICHOLAS-SOUTHEAST NICHOLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CLINTWOOD, GRUNDY, VANSANT, CLAY, WELCH,
GARY, WAR, MULLENS, OCEANA, PINEVILLE, BRADLEY, PROSPERITY,
SOPHIA, BECKLEY, OAK HILL, FAYETTEVILLE, MONTGOMERY,
MEADOW BRIDGE, SUMMERSVILLE, CRAIGSVILLE, BIRCH RIVER,
AND RICHWOOD
559 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...BURST OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...

Heavy rain pressing through the area this evening has prompted
accumulations of 1 to 1.5 inches. Localized high water issues
could arise over the next few hours as well as a response in low
lying creeks and streams. Watch for standing water on roadways and
reduce speed to avoid hydroplaning. Rain will gradually taper off
overnight.
Special weather statement, Jan 25, 8:38 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
838 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

KYZ102-103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033-034-
515>520-260545-
CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
NORTHWEST RALEIGH-SOUTHEAST RALEIGH-NORTHWEST FAYETTE-
SOUTHEAST FAYETTE-NORTHWEST NICHOLAS-SOUTHEAST NICHOLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GRAYSON, OLIVE HILL,
CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK, ASHLAND,
CANNONSBURG, LOUISA, YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK, CLINTWOOD,
GRUNDY, VANSANT, KENOVA, CEREDO, WAYNE, HUNTINGTON, HARTS,
ALUM CREEK, HAMLIN, TEAYS VALLEY, HURRICANE, CHARLESTON,
SOUTH CHARLESTON, SAINT ALBANS, WILLIAMSON, LOGAN, CHAPMANVILLE,
MAN, MADISON, CLAY, WELCH, GARY, WAR, MULLENS, OCEANA, PINEVILLE,
BRADLEY, PROSPERITY, SOPHIA, BECKLEY, OAK HILL, FAYETTEVILLE,
MONTGOMERY, MEADOW BRIDGE, SUMMERSVILLE, CRAIGSVILLE,
BIRCH RIVER, AND RICHWOOD
838 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES
TONIGHT...

Another batch of rain will progress through portions of eastern
Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and southwest Virginia late this
evening. Heavy bursts of rainfall, especially within embedded
thunderstorms, will contribute to previous accumulations from
earlier today.

Localized high water issues could arise over the next few hours
as well as a response in low lying creeks and streams. Watch for
standing water on roadways and reduce speed to avoid hydroplaning.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 26, 8:07 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningRLXWyoming3 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in West Virginia, 2021Areal Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2021Every areal flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.