Lake Wind Advisory 6, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 AM PST Sat Feb 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Unsettled weather continues through the holiday weekend for the
Sierra and western Nevada. Plan for periods of gusty winds, mountain
snow and valley rain showers. These storms may make your holiday
traffic more challenging, so be sure to check the road conditions
and weather, and have a backup plan.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Active weather pattern continues today as another cold front moves
through the region bringing more gusty winds, rain, and mountain
snow. Impacts from the current front will continue through mid-day
today with a break in the weather expected on Sunday before another
weak system moves in Sunday night through midday Monday.

Initial push of over-running precipitation brought light rain into
western Nevada and accumulating snow to the Sierra overnight with
chain controls currently in place in the Sierra. A short break in
the precipitation may occur just ahead of the front before a period
of colder convective snow showers move in this morning along the
cold front. The heaviest snowfall in the Sierra is expected
around 6-10 am this morning, with showers becoming more sporadic
into early afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
for the Tahoe Basin through 10 am with additional details of
expected snow amounts. Light snow may also accumulate in NE
California, western Nevada foothills, and Mono county this
morning, though amounts are generally expected to be 1-2" or less.

Wind will be the main impact in western Nevada and the eastern
Sierra this morning as a strong surface gradient is forecast to form
behind the front. Strong gusty winds are expected this morning in
the western Nevada Basin and Range and in Mono County. Widespread
wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible in west-central Nevada with
gusts up to 60-70 mph possible in Mono County along highway 395 as
strong, 160 kt NW-SE oriented jet streak, moves overhead. A High
Wind Warning is in effect for Mono County along with Wind
Advisories for the Basin and Range through 4 pm today.

A break in the precipitation is expected this afternoon through
Sunday afternoon between cold fronts. Chilly temperatures are
expected tonight with overnight lows dropping into the teens in
Sierra valleys and 20s for most of western Nevada. Some single
digits are possible in the eastern Sierra and typically cold
valleys.

Overall QPF for Monday is looking similar to the totals expected
today with around 0.5-0.75" along the crest. Although snow
accumulations are expected to be a little less with the Monday
system as warmer air moves in, limiting most of the accumulation
above 6000-6500 feet. Additional accumulations of 4-6 inches of
snow currently forecast for the Sierra crest with light
accumulations possible in around the lake level, NE California,
and Mono County. While this might be a low end winter storm for
the Sierra, keep in mind, significant impacts to travel will still
be possible over the Sierra passes with the increased holiday
travel. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Tuesday and beyond...

For Tuesday-Wednesday, generally dry weather is expected as the
final in a series of storms exits and a flat ridge off the west
coast edges into CA-NV. While both days look to have similar
temperatures (highs mainly in the 40s to near 50--slightly below
average), Tuesday will feel colder due to expected brisk northwest
to north winds.

Later next week, the potential for another fast moving weather
system increases with flow aloft becoming northwest. While there are
some differences in the projected track and strength of this system,
the overall idea appears similar to the current wave of storm
systems moving through: Mostly light snowfall for the Sierra,
scattered rain/snow showers for lower elevations, and a period of
gusty winds. Ahead of this system, temperatures will likely warm to
above average with highs in the mid-upper 50s for western NV valleys
Thu-Fri.

Beyond next weekend, there are several ensemble clusters that nudge
the ridge eastward into CA-NV enough to push the jet farther north.
This would bring a period of drier and mild weather to round out
February. We'll wait and see since there is still an ensemble
cluster that continues the current pattern.

MJD/Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Northwest flow aloft will continue the keep the track of fast moving
low-end winter storms across the Sierra and western NV through early
next week. Lower elevation rain and mountain snow will continue
through this morning with periods of terrain obscuration and MVFR
(occasionally IFR) conditions in the Sierra. Several inches of wet
heavy snow accumulation is expected for the Tahoe area terminals
while snow will arrive later at KMMH, accumulations there are likely
to be lighter. Runways will remain wet for lower elevation terminals.

Otherwise, brisk west-northwest winds will result in some moderate
turbulence and LLWS today. KMMH will likely be contending with the
strongest winds during this storm. MOS guidance suggests sustained
winds around 30-35 kts 17Z-21Z as the front pushes through the
eastern Sierra with a short period of intense gusts to 50-60 kts
possible. A high wind warning has been hoisted as a result of
potential high winds today. While not as strong, gusty west to
northwest winds to 30-40 kts will occur across much of western NV,
with strongest winds along and east of Highway 95 (Basin and Range
down into Mineral County). Blowing dust is possible this afternoon
for these areas.

A break Sunday ahead of a couple more fast moving shortwaves Sunday
night through Monday night. Another round of light mountain snows
and valley showers along with brisk west to northwest winds will
bring some impacts to area terminals once again. Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon
     NVZ001.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this afternoon
     NVZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

CA...High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
     afternoon CAZ073.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno