Lake Wind Advisory 19, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT Fri Mar 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Mountain snow, light valley rain showers, and gusty winds continue
through today. A few light snow showers may linger on Saturday. It
will remain cool over the weekend followed by the potential for a
couple of quick moving storms Monday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Main change concerned adding a Wind Advisory for Mono County this
afternoon into this evening. 700-600mb winds increase across Mono
County as a 110kt 300 mb jet sags south. Surface winds will increase
after noon with winds downsloping along the Sierra Front. Gusts in
general will be 35-50 mph with gusts to 65 mph for more windprone
locations like canyon openings and in the Lee Vining vicinity. There
is also potential for gusty winds in the Walker Lake area. Main
impacts would be for high profile vehicles along Highway 395 and
strong aviation turbulence.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with low pressure swinging
through the inter-mountain west. Minor adjustments were made to
slightly increase precipitation chances and QPF into early Saturday
along the Sierra crest with models 3-6 hours slower with the exit of
the system. GFS does favor lingering chances longer into Saturday
evening with a shortwave phasing with the longwave trough Saturday
afternoon while flow turns northwesterly. If NBM and other models
trend towards GFS today, it would be reasonable to see higher
chances of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for Saturday.

Winds shift easterly Sunday; easterly breezes were increased across
the Tahoe Basin and Sierra crest early Sunday morning with potential
for wind gusts 20-30 mph. Temperatures will be running 5-10 degrees
below seasonal averages. Boyd

.LONG TERM...
No significant warming trend or significant precipitation signals
for next week, but the ensemble spread indicates the weather will
be quite variable. While it is a lower confidence forecast for
next week there are two time frames of concern:

(1) Monday - Tuesday for rain/snow showers & gusty winds

(2) Thursday: inside slider potential

- Typically, inside sliders are notoriously cold and also fairly
  effective at putting snow "down here" in Reno-Carson City
  vicinities, with little to no snow in the mountain locations.
  Thankfully it is mid-March, so accumulating snow will be a lower
  possibility with the longer days and warmer road temperatures.

Ensemble clusters continue to show a ridge amplifying off of the
Pacific Northwest coast for much of next week. That pattern lends
itself towards potentially weak/cold systems to drop in from the
north with little to no precipitation involved. We will continue to
highlight the same impacts: potential for colder air to drop through
with increased N/NW breezes for much of the week, weak rain/snow
showers, and a slower warmup with the ridge remaining largely
offshore.

First shortwave potential Monday into Tuesday: A weak shortwave
passes through on Monday afternoon bringing chances for light
showers as well as enhanced winds. Precipitation chances remain on
the far north and east fringes of the area for now (northern Washoe-
north/eastern Pershing-far eastern Churchill counties). ECMWF EFI
(extreme forecast index) is showing a signal for enhanced winds and
wind gusts for Tuesday afternoon/evening for areas south of Highway
50.

Second shortwave potential Thursday: Deterministic GFS/ECMWF are
highlighting the possibility of an inside slider for Thursday
afternoon into Friday. The ensemble clusters for this time frame are
quite variable with the location of the upstream ridge as well as
the low center. So while this is a low confidence scenario it is
worth highlighting that it is in the realm of possibility for late
week. -Edan

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds will remain gusty with mountain wave turbulence and LLWS
possible as cold front continues to make its way through the region
this morning. Peak gusts around 25-40 kts will be ongoing through
mid morning, especially for KCXP/KMEV/KRNO with ridge level winds in
the 50-60 kts range this afternoon/evening.

Rain/snow showers will begin to taper off through the day for the
Tahoe area, with snow persisting around KMMH through this evening.
KMMH/KBDG/KHTH will also be dealing with some potential stronger
wind gusts this afternoon and evening with 20-40kts possible at
times, especially for KMMH.

There is still some potential for the front to stall out this
morning over the region from KMMH-KNFL-KWMC which would maintain
some light rain showers around western NV. There is a 10% chance of
thunderstorms along and east of KNFL-KWMC this afternoon.

On Saturday, an additional wave may bring additional light rain/snow
showers to the region before high pressure amplifies along the west
coast on Sunday. -Edan

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
     evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno