Lake Wind Advisory 16, NWS Reno, NV

295 
WWUS75 KREV 130236
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
636 PM PST Fri Mar 12 2021

CAZ072-NVZ002-130345-
/O.CAN.KREV.LW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210313T0500Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Tahoe City, Truckee, 
Markleeville, Stateline, Glenbrook, and Incline Village
636 PM PST Fri Mar 12 2021

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished from their peak this afternoon and no longer
meet advisory criteria. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph will produce
some light chop the remainder of the evening with wave heights
less than 2 feet.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/rev

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1255 PM PST Thu Mar 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered snow showers will gradually diminish this evening, but a
few snow showers will continue in the eastern Sierra for Friday.
A warming trend this weekend with dry conditions, then another
storm possible Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Snow showers across the eastern Sierra and western Nevada are
ongoing and will continue into the evening. Overall, the
instability isn't as great as yesterday so the showers overall
should be a little less intense. The threat of any thunderstorms
is also lower, but will leave them in for now as we haven't
reached peak heating.

The snow showers will rapidly diminish after sunset, but some snow
showers will continue through Friday morning for the eastern
Sierra where east upslope flow will wring out any moisture left.
Elsewhere will see less cloud cover Friday with warmer
temperatures as ridging aloft builds in. North winds will also
gradually become a bit lighter. Saturday looks like a beautiful
March day with warmer temps near normal, sunshine and light
winds. Overnight lows will continue to be below average though
with clear skies for good radiational cooling. X

.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...

Sunday looks to remain on the mild side with increasing southwest
winds late day helping with mixing. We're still watching a fast
moving trough for Sunday night into Monday, but there remains a lot
of "noise" in the operational and ensemble solutions. What we know:
there will be a trough with increasing southwest winds and chances
for precipitation. What we don't is if the trough will remain intact
or if we'll see a split, with there solid ensemble support for
either solution.

As far as snow totals, NBM probabilities are showing nothing in the
25th percentile for any location, with 6-8" in the 75th and 8-16" of
snow in the 90th percentile for Sierra snow. For western Nevada,
going into the 75th percentile yields a dusting up to 1 inch. The
other wildcard, is the convective enhancement potential, similar to
what we saw with the storm the past couple of days, with snow
pellets also possible. Snow levels may yield a mix below 6000' to
start Sunday night, but the air mass is potentially cold enough for
snow at all elevations by Monday morning.

In either solution, we'll see an increase in southwesterly winds and
cooler temps due to a cold frontal passage, however, the
surface/thermal gradient will be stronger if the trough directly
pushes through the region. Sunday afternoon through Monday could
certainly bring choppy conditions to area lakes, difficult travel
for high profile vehicles, and turbulence/wind shear for aviation
interests. There remains significant temperature spread in ensemble
guidance, with the NBM showing a 20+ degree spread in high
temperatures from the 10th to 90th percentiles on Monday -- anywhere
from upper 30s to low 60s for lower valley locations.

The remainder of the week we'll see warming conditions, with near to
slightly above normal temperatures. There isn't much activity out in
the Pacific, but the few weak hints in the IVT probs (EPS/GEFS) are
north of 40N. This would mean the best storm potential is into the
Pacific Northwest, or even British Columbia. A few weak brush-by
type systems do remain possible March 18-23, especially for areas
closer to the Oregon border, but this unfortunately isn't going to
do much for the snowpack. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR the next 48 hours, but with a couple exceptions.
Through about 03Z this evening, scattered snow showers will bring
local MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Also, upslope flow in the
eastern Sierra will continue to bring more MVFR CIGS and mtn
obscuration through 20Z Friday.

As far as winds, they will be generally light and from the north
for the next 48 hours. However, a bit gustier ridge winds are
likley over the Sierra Friday night with peak gusts to 50 mph and
some mtn wave turbulence.

The next storm is possible Sunday night into Monday and would
bring some MVFR/IFR to the Sierra for a period of time. However,
it is not a sure thing we will even see a storm with the storm
chances about 70%. Even then, it is not a big storm, something
similar to the current low and not as long lasting. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno