Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
218 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front that will cross the area this evening. High pressure
will build into the region on Sunday and persist through midweek
with mild Pacific air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 218 PM Saturday...

The wx pattern and day is unfolding as expected with strong
southerly sfc flow in a tight pressure gradient ahead of the cold
front that's now approaching the mountains.  Although heating got a
late start due to the extensive cloud coverage this morning, the
aforementioned southerly flow has advected  upper 60s and lower 70s
readings into central NC.  In addition, the increasing pressure
gradient coupled with low level warming and shallow BL mixing is
resulting in wind gusts in excess of 20 mph attm.  This will
continue to be the case the rest of this afternoon.

Otherwise, the pre-frontal convection band is now crossing the
mountains.  Despite the aforementioned sfc warming, latest
mesoanalysis shows very little if any CAPE across the western half
of our CWA, and modest SB CAPE (~500J/kg) east of I-95, where the
warmest sfc readings are currently found.  The lack of CAPE west of
I-95 due in-part to a persistent H8 inversion that shows up on 17Z
and 18Z AMDAR soundings at both GSO and RDU, and thus the reason for
the persistent cloud layer trapped under said inversion. So despite
ample bulk shear (in excess of 50 kts), nearly all of the latest
HREF members shows a gradual decline in convection intensity after
the band crosses the mountains and moves east across our CWA.

Nevertheless, given the abundance of wind assoc with this system...
and it's history...all warrants close monitoring of this precip band
as it moves east across our area this evening.  It does appear that
some beneficial rains will be seen with this system, but still much
much less than what we need.  QPF right now across most of central
NC is forecast between 1/10 and 1/4 inch, with a few lucky spots
receiving up to 1/2 inch of rain.

The rain is expected to end across the Triad and western zones by
06Z and by 10Z across the I-95 corridor region.  Gradual clearing
late tonight after the rain exits.  Lows will range from the  mid
30s across the Triad, to around 40 south near Wadesboro, to mid 40s
east along I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 218 PM Saturday...

The mid-level trough axis will be exiting our area by 12Z Sunday,
then look for subsidence and clearing skies in it's wake for the
rest of Sunday, and while high pressure builds in from the west.  As
the high builds in during the morning and afternoon, the tightened p-
grad will result in N-NE winds with gusts aoa 15kt.  But by evening,
the high will be settled right over central NC, so look for the p-
grad and winds to relax quickly.   Overall, a nice weather day with
plenty of sunshine during the day and clear at night, but with
seasonably chilly temps with highs Sunday in the low to middle 50s.
Lows Sunday night 25 to 30, thanks to clear skies, calm winds, and
radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 218 PM Saturday...

Dry and above normal through Friday, with a potential cold front and
showers late in the period.

High pressure will be in place across central NC on Monday. High
temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday in the upper
50s to lower 60s under sunshine. With clear skies and light winds
expected again in the evening, good radiational cooling will once
again favor overnight lows slightly below normal in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

There is very little change in the extended period from Tuesday
through Friday, with a mid-level anomalous ridge of high pressure
over the northern Gulf of Mexico that slowly moves into the
southeast US by the end of the week. With the exception of a weak
back door cold front on Wednesday from high pressure settling into
the Northeast US lowering our highs into the upper 50s to middle
60s, temperatures will largely follow an upward trajectory, rising
into the upper 60s to low/mid 70s Thursday and Friday. This is about
15-20 degrees above our seasonal normals for the middle of December.
The latest model guidance has slowed the approach of a cold front
into central NC until Saturday night to early Sunday, as high
pressure over the Midwest settles into the Ohio Valley. Ensemble
guidance from the EPS/GEFS keep any rain chances largely in the
Saturday night to Sunday timeframe but there remains high spread in
the individual members. The pattern at mid-levels features a trough
over the Great Lakes Saturday tracking into the Northeast US and Mid-
Atlantic, with height falls over central NC Saturday night. At the
same time, another potential cutoff mid-level system may form over
Baja California. How the pattern evolves will likely change between
now and next weekend so have only introduced slight chances of rain
Saturday. Expect a downward trend in temperatures by the end of the
period as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 119 PM Saturday...

Through 18Z Sunday:  Widespread MVFR cigs across central NC attm,
with IFR across the NW Piedmont including KINT and KGSO.   Clouds
will begin to thin out east and south of KGSO as warm southerly flow
increases.  However, a band of prefrontal showers and isold tstms
are expected to move across central NC between 23Z west through 05Z
east, thus look for tempo IFR or worse flt conditions as this precip
band moves across this evening.  pre-frontal sfc winds will be south
10G20+kt at all TAF sites.   Wind gusts assoc w/convection will be
mainly from the west with gusts in excess of 30kt possible. Once the
rain band and cold front moves through by 06Z, look for wind shift
to NW at speeds of 10-15kt and gradually improving cigs.  Then VFR
conditions expected to return across all of central NC by 15Z  on
Sunday.

After 18Z Sunday:  VFR conditions should dominate through Thursday
under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high min temperature and record high temperatures on
December 11th...

RDU  57 (2008)	74 (2007)
GSO  54 (2008)	78 (2007)
FAY  60 (1972)	80 (2007)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...np

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
519 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

NCZ007-021>023-038-039-112315-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-Forsyth NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Person NC-
519 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...A line of strong storms with strong wind gusts will impact
portions of northwestern Alamance, southeastern Forsyth,
northwestern Person, Davidson, Randolph and Guilford Counties
through 615 PM EST...

At 519 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Reidsville to near Lexington to near
Downtown Concord. Movement was northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Burlington, Asheboro,
Lexington, Graham, Roxboro, Randleman and Prospect Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong winds may occur well ahead of any rain or lightning. Do not
wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7882 3618 7926 3551 7979 3551 8018
      3558 8021 3572 8033 3574 8046 3583 8045
      3584 8039 3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8037
      3626 8003 3624 7957 3627 7916 3654 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 242DEG 63KT 3631 7961 3581 8020 3539 8053

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CA

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
556 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

NCZ038-039-073>075-083-084-112330-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
Moore NC-
556 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong line of thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Moore, southeastern Davidson, Anson, Montgomery, western Richmond,
southern Randolph and Stanly Counties through 630 PM EST...

At 556 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Badin Lake to near Marshville. Movement
was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Albemarle, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Troy, Badin Lake, North
Carolina Zoo, Biscoe, Ansonville and Seagrove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong winds may occur well ahead of any rain or lightning. Do not
wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8019 3556 8020 3577 7955
      3510 7964 3481 7991 3481 8032 3519 8028
      3516 8044 3519 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 250DEG 46KT 3554 8009 3504 8032

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW LEWISVILLE        36.10N 80.42W
12/11/2021                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN LEWISVILLE,
            TOBACCOVILLE, AND WALKERTOWN BETWEEN 529 PM
            AND 545 PM.

&&

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
615 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

NCZ007>010-023>025-120000-
Vance NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-Warren NC-Person NC-Orange NC-
Granville NC-
615 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Alamance,
Person, Vance, northwestern Warren, northern Orange, Granville and
northwestern Durham Counties through 700 PM EST...

At 614 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Boydton to near Graham. Movement was east
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Henderson, Graham, Oxford, Roxboro, Hillsborough,
Creedmoor, Mebane, Butner and Norlina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong winds may occur well ahead of any rain or lightning. Do not
wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 7855 3604 7954 3624 7926 3624 7915
      3634 7915 3654 7894 3654 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 261DEG 33KT 3665 7848 3610 7938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CA