Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
344 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon, then
move slowly southeast through central North Carolina tonight and
Thursday. Drier and cooler high pressure will build into the region
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Convection has started to develop over western NC and portions of
the Piedmont in response to a mid-level shortwave traversing through
the area from the southwest. Storm coverage should continue to
increase as we go into the evening hours and track eastward from the
Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. The main risks of the storms today
is locally damaging winds and hail. A low pressure system is
currently north of the Great Lakes, with a cold front draped south
of this system into the Ohio Valley, western Kentucky, and central
Arkansas. This front will slowly move south and east into western
North Carolina and central Virginia by tomorrow morning. Given large-
scale lift from an upper-level jet streak and the frontal boundary,
precipitation, transitioning to rain showers and embedded storms, is
expected during the late evening and overnight, with best coverage
along/east of US-1. Overnight lows will drop to the upper 60s to low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

For Thursday, the front is expected to push through the Triad first
in the early afternoon, then across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain
in the late afternoon and evening hours. Ongoing clouds and chances
of rain showers are expected, especially along/east of US-1 during
the morning to early afternoon hours. As the front pushes through by
the evening hours, drier air will allow precipitation to taper off
from west to east. The chance of storms tomorrow is reduced given
less instability and cloud cover, favored largely over the Coastal
Plain. As for clouds, lowered highs on Thursday largely in the upper
70s to around 80 given clouds and rain chances, though overall
confidence not very high at the moment. This would be about 3-5
degrees below average. As the front pushes through Thursday night,
dewpoints will drop into the lower to upper 50s early Friday,
bringing in a much cooler airmass. Overnight lows Thursday night
were lowered  as a result to the mid to upper 50s with good
radiational cooling forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Upper-level troughing moving across the region on Friday will exit
east by late Saturday as upper-level ridging builds in from the west
early next week. By the middle of next week, the ridge flattens and
allows for zonal flow across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure
will build from the OH Valley on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic,
then linger across the Carolinas for early to mid-next week.

Northerly surface flow will maintain cold air advection on Friday,
limiting high temperature to the upper 70s N to mid-80s S, which is
a few degrees below seasonal normals. Lows Saturday morning will
again dip into the 50s, with lower-level thicknesses between 1380-
1385 m. Temperatures will be on the rise through early next week as
heights build and warm air advection returns. High will increase
into the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday, which is 5-10 degrees above
seasonal normals. The ridge will maintain the stable conditions and
dry weather this weekend into early next week, then precipitation
chances start to increase next Wednesday as the ridge aloft weakens
and moisture increases across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 146 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are forecast to start the TAF period. Main challenge
with the forecast this evening and overnight is the timing of storm
coverage and resultant CIG/VIS during the overnight period. Guidance
in good agreement for scattered showers and storms to develop across
the TAF sites late this afternoon and evening. Storms would start
earlier at GSO/INT and later at FAY/RWI with an approach of a cold
front. The main storm threat is locally damaging winds and hail. The
latest forecast times the most likely period of storms across the
TAF sites. For late tonight and overnight, an approaching cold front
will lead to rain showers and embedded storms primarily at
RDU/FAY/RWI that may linger into the morning hours. As for CIG/VIS,
MVFR to IFR conditions are forecast, though confidence is not high.
It would appear the best chance of sub-VFR conditions will be at
RDU/FAY/RWI given the location of the cold front.

Outlook: Rain and some storms will move out of all TAF sites by 00z
Fri, with VFR conditions expected through Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/JJT
NEAR TERM...Kren/JJT
SHORT TERM...Kren/JJT
LONG TERM...JJT
AVIATION...Kren/JJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
353 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-090800-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
353 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
the evening as a strong trough approaches from the northwest. A few
of the storms may become strong to locally severe. The main hazard is
expected to be local damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with some training of the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ010-011-082045-
Warren NC-Halifax NC-
358 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Warren and
northwestern Halifax Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Warrenton to 13 miles south of Littleton.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Warrenton, Littleton, Weldon, Macon, Medoc Mountain
State Park, Lake Gaston, Southpointe And Morningstar Marinas, Arcola
and South Weldon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3648 7765 3645 7763 3643 7759 3639 7755
      3638 7755 3618 7792 3619 7792 3619 7794
      3618 7795 3619 7797 3618 7798 3621 7801
      3622 7807 3637 7823 3654 7806 3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 227DEG 18KT 3637 7812 3625 7799

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Green

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
449 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ022>024-039-040-082145-
Guilford NC-Chatham NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Orange NC-
449 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Alamance, southern
Orange, Randolph, southeastern Guilford and western Chatham Counties
through 545 PM EDT...

At 448 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Randolph county, including the strongest storm 8 miles northwest of
Siler City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Asheboro, Graham, Randleman,
Siler City, North Carolina Zoo, Carrboro and Mebane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 7900 3594 7900 3552 7949 3564 8006
      3584 8003 3621 7952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 219DEG 29KT 3579 7959

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
450 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ010-011-082130-
Warren NC-Halifax NC-
450 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren and
northwestern Halifax Counties through 530 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Warrenton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton, Weldon, Macon, Medoc
Mountain State Park, Afton, Lake Gaston and Wise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3648 7765 3644 7762 3642 7759 3642 7755
      3620 7796 3630 7827 3655 7828 3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 219DEG 29KT 3637 7813

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
519 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ010-011-026-082215-
Franklin NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-
519 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm currently near Louisburg will impact
portions of southern Warren, west central Halifax and northeastern
Franklin Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 519 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Louisburg, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea to marble size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Macon, Centerville, Arcola, Ingleside, Medoc Mountain
State Park and Afton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3641 7794 3627 7784 3620 7800 3620 7801
      3619 7802 3609 7823 3619 7834 3647 7816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 225DEG 20KT 3616 7825

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
520 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ088-089-082215-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
520 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Sampson
and central Cumberland Counties through 615 PM EDT...

At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fayetteville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Godwin, Hope Mills, Eastover, Stedman, Wade, Falcon,
Linden, Vander and Cedar Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7887 3499 7903 3526 7877 3527 7872
      3526 7870 3525 7862 3514 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 225DEG 20KT 3498 7889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GIH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
529 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

NCZ074-075-083>086-082230-
Scotland NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Montgomery NC-Moore NC-
529 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Moore,
Scotland, southeastern Anson, southeastern Montgomery, Richmond and
Hoke Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Hamlet, or near Rockingham, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laurinburg, Southern Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Pinehurst, Hamlet,
Aberdeen, Hoffman, Whispering Pines and Pinebluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Dont wait until you see the first lightning flash before heading to
safety. Move indoors at the first sign of threatening skies or the
first sound of thunder. Deadly lightning strikes can occur well ahead
of an approaching storm, prior to the arrival of rain and wind. Make
sure that lightning is well away from your location before resuming
outdoor activity.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7999 3483 8007 3532 7968
      3525 7925 3498 7908 3484 7930 3484 7935
      3480 7935 3468 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 224DEG 20KT 3491 7970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GIH