Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 pM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remains of Tropical Storm Fred will track slowly north
through the southern Appalachians through early Wednesday.
After this system moves north and away from the area, typical warm
and humid summertime weather will return to the region later in the
week, with a daily risk of scattered storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Tuesday...

Fred has weakened to a tropical depression, with it's circulation
center now just SW of Atlanta, Ga. The weakening remnants of Fred
will continue to track north-northeast through the NC mtns during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Renewed, strong moisture
transport, aided by a strong orographic lift on the lee-ward side of
the mountains will lead to intermittent shower activity through
tonight, with some daytime enhancement of some thunderstorms across
the area. Models have actually trended lower with rainfall amounts
across the Triad, now in the 0.5 to 1.0" range. Another mention
worthy change is that the GFS now shows that the highest rainfall
totals of near 1-1.5" inches will actually fall across the eastern
Sandhills/southern coastal plain, which is certainly possible given
that's exactly where the current feeder band has set up. Otherwise,
the thought is that the mid-level subsidence warming associated with
the strong sub-tropical ridge parked just off the NC coast will
contribute to diminishing convective potential across the far
eastern/northeastern NC, where less than a one-quarter of an inch
of rain is expected.

Despite the recent increase in rain that central NC has seen over
the past several days, rainfall amounts have been hit and miss.
Antecedent hydrological conditions are still rather dry, with 1 to 3
hr FFG still in the 2.5-3.5" range. Thus, do not think a Flash Flood
watch is warranted, with only isolated instances of minor flooding
possible, mainly in poor drainage and/or urban areas.

Additionally, close proximity to Fred's stronger low-level wind
field will provide some favorable low-level kinematics to support
some rotation within any strong updrafts that develop in what should
largely be a weakly unstable airmass in place across western NC.

Highs today will range from upper 70s/near 80 NW to mid/upper 80s
east. Lows tonight in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY and WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Tuesday...

On Wednesday the remnants of Fred will be lifting newd across WVA
and PA. The day will start off with a band of enhanced moisture and
showers on the south side of Fred moving across central NC (as noted
in the near term disc).  This band will take its time moving east,
so look for increased rain chances during most of the daytime hours
Wednesday.  By evening and night, Fred will be moving up into the
Northeast region, and by then the aforementioned shower band should
be east of our CWA, leaving Wednesday night dry but still mostly
cloudy with some low clouds and perhaps some fog with high dwpts
remaining.  Daytime highs on Wednesday in the low-mid 80s and lows
in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

The weakening remnants of TC Fred are expected to be well to the
north and east of central NC by Thursday, likely across New England.
In the wake of the departed tropical system we can expect hot and
humid conditions with a strong mid/upper level ridge extending into
our area from the south/southeast and a lingering soupy/moist low
level airmass. Given the combination of this and high temps in the
lower to mid 90s we could see some locations across the eastern
Piedmont, Coastal Plain and Sandhills approaching Heat Advisory
criteria again (around 105 or a little higher). Chances for
afternoon showers and storms are expected to be less, though we'll
still have the potential for isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
showers and storms. Dry weather is expected to return for Thursday
night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday through Monday: The mid/upper level ridge will expand further
southwestward on Friday, steering TC Grace well to the south of
central NC, with a west direction into and across the southern Gulf
of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a fairly broad trough will
slowly shift eastward and across the area from late week into the
weekend, with several embedded s/w disturbances moving across the
area. This will allow for a continued/further enhanced threat of,
mostly diurnal, isolated to scattered showers and storms.

A strong mid/upper level ridge centered over the Arklatex region
will expand eastward and into our area by early next week. However,
this will leave us susceptible to MCS activity tracking around the
ridge.

High temps during this time frame are expected to range from the
upper 80s to near 90, with heat building some by the end of the
period (lower to perhaps mid 90s maybe). Lows temps are expected to
be around 70-75 degrees each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Through 18Z Wednesday: Weakening remnants of former Tropical Storm
Fred will move north through the NC mtns late this afternoon and
through the evening. Intermittent showers, with occasional
diurnally driven flareups of thunder/lightning will by possible
through the 24 forecast period. Flight conditions this afternoon and
into the evening will vary from MVFR in the west to low-end VFR in
the east with brief periods of IFR to MVFR vsby restrictions in
heavy downpours. Ceilings will lower to LIFR(west) to
MVFR(east)overnight, followed by slow gradual lifting to VFR
Wednesday afternoon.

After 18Z Wednesday: The highest rain chances shift to central
and eastern terminals Wednesday afternoon and evening as Fred lifts
north of the area.  Lower, diurnally driven rain chances return by
Thursday and will continue into the weekend. Sub-VFR conditions from
fog/low stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...bsd
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
412 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>085-180815-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
412 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Locally heavy downpours and flooding, will be possible in scattered
to locally numerous thunderstorms. Additionally, an isolated strong
to severe storm is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Locally heavy downpours and flooding will be possible in scattered
to locally numerous thunderstorms today.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-086-088-089-180815-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
412 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1233 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NCZ022-038-039-171730-
Guilford NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
1233 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Davidson, central Randolph and southwestern Guilford Counties through
130 PM EDT...

At 1232 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Asheboro, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Asheboro, Randleman, North Carolina Zoo,
Thomasville, Archdale, Trinity, Pleasant Garden and Jamestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 7964 3558 7984 3598 8014 3605 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 154DEG 23KT 3570 7979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
113 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NCZ040>042-075>077-086-088-089-171815-
Lee NC-Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Hoke NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
113 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A line of strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east
central Moore, northwestern Sampson, Harnett, northern Cumberland,
Lee, southwestern Wake, western Johnston, northeastern Hoke and
southeastern Chatham Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 112 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Pope
AFB to 7 miles southeast of Dunn. Movement was north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Smithfield, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Garner, Fuquay-Varina,
Clayton, Dunn, Angier and Benson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 7933 3570 7830 3517 7840 3515 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 184DEG 26KT 3522 7911 3523 7855

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
208 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NCZ022>025-039>042-076-171900-
Guilford NC-Lee NC-Johnston NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-
Randolph NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
208 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...A line of showers and thunderstorms will impact portions of
Alamance, southern Orange, northeastern Randolph, southeastern
Guilford, north central Lee, Wake, west central Johnston, Chatham
and southern Durham Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 206 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of showers and
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of
Clayton to 8 miles southeast of Pittsboro to 11 miles east of
Seagrove. Movement was northwest at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough,
Randleman, Pittsboro and Siler City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 7853 3551 7847 3556 7885 3558 7891
      3557 7893 3559 7906 3552 7955 3593 7994
      3613 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 143DEG 37KT 3553 7853 3562 7909 3553 7957

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

NTL