Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 PM EDT Sun Aug 01 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall across the eastern Carolinas through the
middle of next week. Weak low pressure will travel up along the
front today and on Tuesday as the front wavers near the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 PM Sunday...

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 408 remains in effect until 8 PM across
the Sandhills and southern and central Coastal Plain of central NC...

Just sent a quick updated to remove the the Piedmont and northern
Coastal Plain counties across central NC from the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch as the effective front has move into south/southeastern
portions of central NC. Thus the threat of severe weather north of a
line from Chatham to Wake and Wilson Counties has ended.

Previous Discussion.. As of 330 PM

Showers and storms continue to develop across central NC this
afternoon, with the best coverage and intensity along and south of a
front located across the southern half of central NC. This is where
MLCAPE is maximized 1500-2000 J/kg, along with deep shear values of
30-40 kts. This has led to mainly multicellular clusters, along with
a few supercells. The activity is expected to continue through the
late afternoon into the early evening across the south/southeast,
before dragging the effective cold front back to the south of the
area by mid/late evening and ending any threat of precip. Generally
dry weather is expected overnight.

In addition, the combination have temps warming into the 90s with
dewpoints into the upper 70s to lower 80s has lead to heat index
values of around 105 degrees this afternoon across the far
southeast. However, showers and storms should be moving into these
locations shortly, which will allow for some relief of the heat
(mother natures air condition). Thus, will not issue a Heat
Advisory. Low temps tonight are expected to range from the mid 60s
northwest to the lower 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Sunday...

The broad mid/upper level trough will remain over the eastern half
the CONUS on Monday into Monday night. The aforementioned cold front
will be to the south and east of the area on Monday, with noticeably
drier air filtering into the region. This will lead to a brief
return to dry weather. However, this will be short lived as the
mid/upper level trough begins to deepen some to the west allowing
for moisture to increase across the area late Monday night as the
front to lifts back north as a warm front. This will allow for
increasing chances of showers and isolated storms during the early
morning hours of Tuesday from south/southwest to north/northeast.

High temps on Monday are expected to range from the lower to mid 80s
across the north to around 90 south, with heat index values topping
out in the lower 90s across the south. Low temperatures are expected
to range from the mid 60s north to around 70 across the far south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 PM Sunday...

A deep upper trough over the Eastern US and multiple waves of low
pressure riding along a cold front stalled over eastern NC will
result in periods of showers in much of the extended period for the
region. It will be especially wet across the Coastal Plain where
deep moist southerly flow from the Atlantic will bring PW values in
excess of 2 inches. The strongest wave and best chance for rain
looks to be on Tuesday, when POPs range from likely NW to
categorical SE. Total forecast rainfall on Tuesday and Tuesday night
alone ranges from about a half inch NW to one and a half inches SE.
POPs then gradually decrease through the remainder of the period as
the front slowly washes out and the upper trough weakens, but this
will be slow to happen as deep Atlantic moisture continues to get
drawn into the area. Thus have chance POPs NW to likely POPs SE each
day from Wednesday through Saturday, finally decreasing to chance
everywhere on Sunday. Instability looks marginal so thunder chances
should be limited, at least on Tuesday and Wednesday before the low-
level flow turns more southerly and CAPE increases. It certainly
appears that several inches of rain is likely through this period
with the highest amounts in the Coastal Plain.

Cool NE surface flow and plenty of clouds/precipitation will likely
keep temperatures in the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. As heights
rise and the flow turns more southerly, temperatures will increase
through the period reaching near normal by Sunday. Lows will
increase from lower-to-mid-60s to mid-60s to near 70 through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected across the area this afternoon as disturbance moves
across the area. The strongest storms are expected across the
eastern half of central NC (KFAY/KRWI/KRDU). The storms will have
the potential to produce gusty wind, lots of lightning, very heavy
rainfall and sub-VFR cigs and visbys. The threat of showers and
storms will diminish by late this afternoon and evening in a
northwest to southeast fashion. VFR conditions are generally
expected to continue overnight as reinforcing cold front moves
through the area. However, we could see some fog or low stratus at
KFAY and KRWI (as the front begins to stall).

VFR conditions and drier weather is expected on Monday.

Outlook: The surface boundary will persist across the area through
the middle of the upcoming work week as an upper level trough
persists across the area. This will lead to an unsettled pattern
with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
returning for Tuesday onward, with periods of sub-VFR fog and low
stratus possible during the overnight and daybreak hours.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...BSD/Blaes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
426 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-073-074-076-083-084-021130-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
426 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ042-075-077-078-085-086-088-089-021130-
Johnston-Moore-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
426 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move across the Sandhills
and southern and central Coastal Plain this afternoon. Some of these
storms may become strong to severe with a primary threat of damaging
wind gusts and quarter size hail, along with possibly a brief
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ078-088-089-012045-
Sampson NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...NORTHERN
SAMPSON AND NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Godwin, or 13 miles east of Fayetteville, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Godwin, Newton Grove, Wade, Salemburg, Falcon and Hobbton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3508 7876 3522 7871 3526 7843 3526 7841
      3527 7838 3529 7822 3519 7816 3518 7817
      3513 7816 3512 7817 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3503 7816 3499 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 295DEG 11KT 3511 7868

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ086-088-089-012045-
Hoke NC-Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL SAMPSON...SOUTHERN
CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rex, or 12 miles southwest of Fayetteville, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hope Mills, Stedman, Autryville, Bushy Lake Natural Area, Cedar
Creek, Rockfish and Vander.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3487 7892 3490 7894 3495 7904
      3491 7909 3500 7909 3505 7853 3485 7853
      3485 7883 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 269DEG 23KT 3492 7900

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE DIGGS              34.88N 79.82W
08/01/2021                   RICHMOND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY ON HWY
            1 SOUTH NEAR HAMER MILL ROAD.

&&

NTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE ROCKINGHAM        34.96N 79.75W
08/01/2021                   RICHMOND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON RICHMOND ROAD.

&&

NTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
428 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ042-077-078-088-089-012130-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
428 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WAYNE...
NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND
AND SOUTHERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Godwin, or 9 miles south of Lillington, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Dunn, Benson, Godwin, Erwin, Coats, Four Oaks,
Princeton, Newton Grove and Wade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3514 7892 3535 7894 3551 7815 3528 7811
      3513 7876
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 268DEG 32KT 3526 7876

23

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
453 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

NCZ078-089-012200-
Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
453 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN
SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Clinton, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Salemburg, Falcon, Autryville,
Hobbton, Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park and Brogden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3509 7867 3512 7864 3512 7865 3514 7864
      3519 7864 3531 7787 3518 7784 3515 7789
      3517 7793 3516 7797 3519 7802 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3509 7817 3503 7815 3500 7865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 262DEG 31KT 3512 7845

23