Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
343 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will maintain seasonably hot and humid
conditions, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
each day through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

High pressure, both aloft and at the surface, will sit along/just
off the Carolina coast through tonight. An upper level disturbance
crossing the Appalachians this afternoon will move over central NC
this evening into early tonight. Aside from the diurnal airmass
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, this disturbance combined
with a strengthening Piedmont trough will enhance convective
activity and provide a focused area over which it will occur. These
storms will move through the Triad between 4 PM and 8 PM this
evening, and are expected to dissipate given the loss of daytime
heating/nocturnal stabilization as they approach the Triangle. Most,
if not all, showers should abate by midnight, with the remainder of
the night expected to be dry and mild. Lows will bottom out in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Persistence. The surface high will remain off the Carolina coast
through Thursday night as the upper level high weakens slightly but
remains in place. A Piedmont trough will again set up over the area
on Thursday. The only change from the previous day will be a much
weaker/more subtle disturbance aloft clipping the NC/VA border
during the aft/eve, which could enhance convection briefly.
Otherwise, expect the diurnal showers/storms with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s to persist.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

The models indicate the flow aloft will undergo amplification across
the CONUS this period, highlighted by another ridge forecast to near
600 dam (~+3 sigma) over the Rockies. Downstream, a positive tilt
longwave trough will amplify and become reinforced by subsequent
shortwaves from ern Canada swwd across the ern US, lwr MS Valley,
and srn Plains. That trough will be preceded by the strong sub-
tropical ridge that has been situated off the middle Atlantic coast
in recent days, which will gradually weaken and lose influence as
the aforementioned trough and accompanying slow-moving surface cold
front approach. That front will likely overtake, by Mon, a preceding
Appalachian-lee trough that will sharpen across the middle Atlantic
and Carolinas Fri-Sat. The front should subsequently settle across
the Carolinas through the middle of next week.

The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature another couple of seasonably hot days Fri-Sat, with
generally climatological probabilities (~30%) of diurnally-driven
and weakly-forced convection, initiated by the lee trough, sea
breeze, and outflow. Well above average chances of convection will
follow and maximize Sun afternoon-Mon night, as forcing for ascent
accompanying the trough and front coincide with precipitable water
values at or above 2 inches. Those precipitation chances would
decrease if the front completely clears cntl NC by the middle of
next week, but given both the time of year and the orientation of
front-parallel, swly flow aloft, it is more likely that above
average chances persist throughout the forecast period. With that
convection and cloudiness, temperatures will trend cooler Sun
onward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: Showers and thunderstorms will move into the
area from the NW, impacting KINT and KGSO most adversely. Some
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected
elsewhere and could impact KRDU and KFAY this aft/eve, but
confidence on exactly when and how badly is uncertain. The strongest
storms will result in LIFR vsbys and strong gusty winds where they
occur. Otherwise through this evening, expect primarily VFR
conditions with scattered to broken cigs around 3500 ft and
southwesterly winds around 5-10 kts expected. MVFR stratus will
again be possible around daybreak Thursday, especially at KFAY but
cannot completely rule it out at the remaining terminals.

Looking ahead: Generally a persistence forecast expected through the
weekend. Southwesterly winds, light overnight and 5-10 kts during
the day, diurnal chances for showers and storms and morning stratus
are all expected to continue.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150745-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
621 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

NCZ039-142315-
Randolph NC-
621 PM EDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 620 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Randleman, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.  Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to
ground lightning will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Randleman, Liberty, Ramseur, Franklinville, Staley and
Randleman Regional Reservior Marina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 7993 3591 7993 3590 7955 3570 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 270DEG 16KT 3583 7984

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