Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
413 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the OH Valley this afternoon to the
middle Atlantic coast tonight. A trailing cold front will settle
south across southern VA and central NC on Saturday. A strong upper
level trough will then pivot across the region Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Friday...

Downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough over the upr Midwest, a
ribbon of convectively-generated mid-level vorticity, and clusters
of ongoing deep convection across the OH and TN Valleys and cntl
Appalachians, will continue to move east across the srn middle
Atlantic tonight.

At the surface, preceding a 1006 mb low over ern OH, a couple of
fronts over the Virginias have generally merged along a lee low over
cntl VA; and this low will likely reach the Chesapeake Bay vicinity
by 00Z Sat, then track newd along the middle Atlantic coast tonight.

Aggregate outflow from scattered frontal convection across cntl and
srn VA, swwd across the NC Foothills and wrn Piedmont, will continue
to drift ewd across the Piedmont through this evening. Other, more-
isolated to widely scattered cells, ones which produced measured
wind gusts of 35-40 kts from HFF and MEB to FAY earlier, will likely
continue to develop newd across the Coastal Plain through the same
time. 25-35 kts of 850-700 mb flow and large DCAPE values in the 800-
1200 J/kg range will favor mostly strong, to isolated damaging wind
gusts in cntl NC, with this threat relatively maximized over the
nrn/wrn Piedmont through 00-01Z, where 0-6 km bulk shear will be
somewhat stronger than points southward.

That convection, and/or additional clusters upstream, will generally
weaken with time and ewd extent as they move east into cntl NC; but
light showers will likely be around for much of the night,
especially along and west of I-95, as the aforementioned
convectively-enhanced trough axis edges overhead, with lows ranging
from the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Friday...

A closed mid level cyclone will drift ewd across the OH Valley Sat-
Sat night, and into the cntl Appalachians early Sun. An initially,
positively-tilted trough axis related to that cyclone will assume
neutral to slight negative tilt while pivoting from the mid MS
Valley Sat morning ewd to the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas by
Sun morning. A preceding ribbon of convectively-generated/enhanced
mid-level vorticity will likely be in the process of moving through
the ern Carolinas and offshore early in the day. While heights will
steadily fall aloft preceding the parent cyclone and trough
throughout the period, maximized around 40-50 meters at 500 mb over
cntl NC Sun morning, there may be a short period of subsidence over
cntl NC behind the initial mid level trough/vorticity axis through
early afternoon Sat.

At the surface, a backdoor cold front over cntl VA Saturday morning
will move south and merge with/overtake a preceding Appalachian-
lee/pre-frontal trough/low, and/or outflow from Fri afternoon-
overnight convection, over cntl NC through the afternoon. Following
high pressure will ridge swd in cold air damming fashion across the
srn middle Atlantic Sat night.

Lingering, dissipating and light showers, and multi-layered overcast
from overnight Fri, may linger over the ern half of cntl NC Sat
morning. Partial clearing, thinning of the associated mid/high-level
cloudiness should yield pockets of strong, pre-frontal heating and
destabilization through the afternoon, with temperatures ranging
from the upr 70s to around 80 near the VA border to around 90 at FAY
and MEB.

Additional, scattered showers and storms are then likely to initiate
along the approaching backdoor cold front and pre-frontal
trough/low, and possibly also on the aforementioned outflow should
it indeed materialize and linger. Swly flow and shear vectors
oriented mostly orthogonally to the cold front suggest storm motion
vectors will cause cells to move into the cooler, post-frontal air
mass relatively quickly. While a few damaging wind gusts will be
possible before they move north of the boundary, become elevated,and
ultimately weaken, hail may pose a a briefly greater threat as they
encounter and move on to the immediate cool side of the boundary,
where nely surface winds will favor locally stronger effective
shear.

Otherwise, post-frontal low overcast and showers will likely become
widespread during the late afternoon and early nighttime hours, with
a quarter to half inch rainfall amounts maximized over the ne
Piedmont and nrn-cntl Coastal Plain, and lesser amounts elsewhere.
Much cooler temperatures in the 50s, to around 60 in the srn-cntl
Coastal Plain, will result overnight-Sun morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

Sunday and Sunday night: An upper low will swing through the mid-
Atlantic on Sunday, then lift up along the coast toward New England
Sunday night. The exact timing and track of the low varies amongst
the medium-range model solutions, but the expectation is for the low
to be northeast of central NC on Monday. At the surface, high
pressure will ridge southward into central NC as the elongated low
sits along the Carolina coast early Sunday. The low will shift
offshore and lift northward through Sunday night. As the low moves
away from the area, high pressure will build in. A late-spring CAD
event is still looking likely as the upper low sits atop a cool,
stable boundary layer. Expect low clouds and cool conditions Sunday
and Sunday night. The development of fog Sunday night/Monday morning
will depend on how much precipitation falls across the area Saturday
night and Sunday. There is a big bust potential for temperatures
this time period, but currently expect highs in the low 60s NE to
low 70s SW and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Monday and Tuesday: Expect the surface ridge to remain over the area
on Monday, slowly retreating northward on Tuesday. Aloft, generally
expect southwesterly flow into the region in the wake of the
departing upper low/trough. Generally expect the weather to remain
dry and seasonable.

Wednesday through Friday: Forecast confidence is still somewhat low
for mid-late week, but the general trend is for moderating
temperatures and increasing chances for rain through the end of the
week. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic will be situated between
Bermuda high pressure to the east and an upper trough over the
Midwest. The strong, deep southerly flow will advect warm, moist air
into the region. Highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s should
persist, with high chances for rain each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

While an isolated to widely scattered shower/storm with surface wind
gusts around 35 kts cannot be ruled out at any cntl NC TAF site this
afternoon, including most imminently around KFAY through 19-20Z, the
relative highest probability of occurrence will otherwise be in
association with a band of showers/storms that will move from the NC
Foothills ewd across the Piedmont through this evening. Associated
rain-cooled air/outflow will favor a chance of MVFR or brief IFR
ceilings over the Piedmont overnight-Saturday morning. Swly surface
winds will otherwise remain breezy even away from convection this
afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 kts.

Outlook: A cold front, and associated focus for scattered
showers/storms, will settle swd across cntl NC Sat afternoon, most
likely across the Piedmont sites and RWI between 18-22Z Sat and FAY
around 00Z Sun. Widespread IFR-MVFR ceilings will also develop
behind the front, along with post-frontal/light showers, all of
which will remain over cntl NC through at least early Sun, with
lifting and scattering to VFR by Sun afternoon-eve. That clearing
may then lead to the development of fog and LIFR ceilings Sun night-
Mon morning, particularly where the heaviest rain occurs beforehand.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
419 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ007>009-021>025-038>040-073>076-083-084-292030-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
419 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging
wind gusts through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-292030-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-
Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
419 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ077-086-088-281900-
Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
204 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL AFFECT HARNETT...CUMBERLAND AND HOKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking heavy rain showers over
the advisory area, the strongest of which is between Antioch and Red
Springs, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Raeford, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Dunn, Angier, Godwin,
Pope AFB, Antioch and Jerome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 7935 3494 7935 3504 7946 3521 7925
      3517 7910 3519 7909 3527 7922 3558 7892
      3550 7866 3533 7853 3525 7862 3512 7865
      3512 7864 3508 7867 3499 7864 3486 7850
      3483 7890 3490 7894 3495 7904 3483 7921
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 249DEG 46KT 3485 7920

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ042-077-088-089-282000-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
300 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SAMPSON... EASTERN
HARNETT...CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers about
15 to 20 miles west and northwest of Clinton, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these showers.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Clinton, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Dunn, Angier, Benson,
Harrells, Godwin and Jerome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 7831 3467 7832 3470 7837 3475 7839
      3485 7850 3483 7890 3493 7898 3521 7898
      3552 7872 3566 7853 3532 7829 3528 7830
      3522 7824 3520 7816 3490 7815 3474 7820
      3472 7811 3471 7811 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 246DEG 25KT 3498 7861

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ042-043-078-282030-
Johnston NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
330 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL AFFECT WAYNE...WILSON AND EASTERN
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower over
Smithfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Smithfield, Wilson, Mount Olive, Elm City, Fremont, Walnut
Creek, Micro, Selma and Sharpsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3557 7782 3543 7783 3538 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7790 3517 7793 3516 7797
      3519 7802 3518 7808 3523 7825 3527 7829
      3557 7847 3573 7820 3584 7790 3584 7785
      3587 7783 3582 7775 3574 7772 3568 7766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 242DEG 26KT 3552 7833

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
513 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ022-038-039-073-282215-
Guilford NC-Stanly NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
513 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH...NORTH STANLY AND SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
High Rock Lake, or 10 miles south of Lexington, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Lexington, Randleman, Thomasville,
McLeansville, Archdale, Trinity, Pleasant Garden and Jamestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

If on or near High Rock Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 8032 3618 7978 3598 7955 3541 8032
      3545 8033 3550 8030 3551 8020 3552 8018
      3555 8020 3555 8021 3558 8021 3563 8026
      3564 8029 3567 8031 3568 8033 3569 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 226DEG 32KT 3566 8023

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
548 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

NCZ022>024-039-282245-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-Randolph NC-Orange NC-
548 PM EDT Fri May 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALAMANCE...SOUTHWESTERN
ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 548 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Randleman, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Mebane, Elon, Gibsonville, Liberty,
Haw River, Franklinville and Swepsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7920 3600 7902 3584 7945 3584 7954
      3581 7954 3575 7970 3590 7980 3625 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 240DEG 34KT 3587 7967

PWB