Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
425 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will surge east across the state this afternoon
and early evening. Cool and dry high pressure for Sunday night and
Monday. Yet, another storm system will affect the region mid-week,
followed by the potential for freezing overnight lows by Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 425 PM Sunday...

...An organized line(s) of severe thunderstorms is still possible,
mainly across eastern and southern NC through the evening...

...Damaging wind gusts is the main severe threat, but large hail and
isolated tornadoes are also possible...

A potent upper-level shortwave trough will continue to intensify as
it traverses the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. The attendant
strong cold front, which is currently approaching the western slopes
of the Appalachians, will move quickly eastward during the afternoon
and into the evening before exiting east and offshore. This strong
cold front coupled with incredibly strong winds aloft, featuring a
50-60 kt LLJ(confirmed on the 12z/28 GSO sounding) and equally
impressive 90kt H5 jet streak that is forecast to further strengthen
to  100-110 kt H5 jet streak, will serve as the focus for strong to
severe storms.

The lead convective band is starting to make inroads through the I-
95 corridor/coastal plain corridor. The weak to moderate
destabilization is largely confined to this corridor and this where
the severe threat will exit over the next 2 hours before the
convection exits the region. Strong effective shear of 55-65 kts
will support severe storms capable of producing thunderstorms wind
gusts of >60kts, especially with any bowing segments. An isolated
tornado and hail will also possible with any embedded supercells.

Meanwhile, the strong sfc cold front and attendant secondary line of
weak convection is starting to across the mountains and is progged
to cross the area during the late afternoon and early evening
hours(21 to 03z). Airmass stabilization over the NC Piedmont, from
the earlier lead convective band, especially west of US 1, will
likely limit convective intensity and severe potential as the
second line moves through the area. It's also entirely possible that
once the lead band pushes through the eastern/coastal plain zones,
that similar stabilizing trends will materialize, keeping the severe
threat with the second convective line very low/isolated.

The second convective line and sfc cold front will exit the I-95
corridor before midnight. This will be followed by breezy NW winds
this evening, clearing skies, and cooling temperatures into the
upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

In the wake of the strong upper level trough exiting the region,
heights aloft will increase with flow briefly becoming quasi-zonal.
At the surface, high pressure will quickly move east across the area
before shifting offshore on Tuesday. Weak CAA and associated NWLY
wind gusts into the teens through the first half of the day will
abate by the afternoon with winds decoupling Monday evening/night as
the high shifts overhead.

This will result in dry weather with and slightly below-normal temps
(2-3 degrees). Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Lows again in the
upper 30s north, to lower 40s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 PM Sunday...

A deep upper level low will cross the Great Lakes and NE on Tuesday
bringing SW flow aloft to Central NC. A shortwave trough will exit
the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and move into the Carolinas by Tuesday
evening. Moisture in the low levels along with above average PWs of
1 to 1.60 inches will lift into the region bringing widespread
showers on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Confidence for these
showers to become severe is low, but a couple of isolated
thunderstorms could develop in the overnight period. Thursday
morning a strong cold front, pushing out all the remaining
showers/storms, will pass over and bring much cooler temperatures
with highs in the upper 40s in the NW and low 50s in the SE, this is
roughly 20 degrees below average. High pressure will build in behind
the cold front Thursday night and will result in dry conditions for
the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will be below freezing
on Thursday and Friday nights as the dry northerly winds filter in
and the surface high settles into the region.  As of now, Easter
weekend will be sunny, and dry with high temperatures in the low 60s on
Saturday and low 70s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Strong and gusty SW wind at 20-25kt will gust to near 40kt this
afternoon out ahead of a cold front

The lead band of weak convective that just moved through the Triad
terminals will continue advance east across the remainder of the
forecast area through 20 to 21z. Thus far, aviation impacts have
been minimal but if this line intensifies as it moves into the more
favorable/more unstable air, expect a 1 to 2 hour of period of
IFR to MVFR restrictions in a heavy shower or thunderstorm.

A second line of convection is expected to cross east through the
area during the late afternoon(west)to early evening (east), likely
to produce another brief 2-3 hour period of sub-VFR conditions in
showers and storms.

Abrupt west to east clearing will occur behind the cold front
with breezy NWLY post-frontal gusts developing behind the front.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are otherwise expected through the
remainder of the forecast as cool high pressure builds into the
area.

Outlook: VFR conditions in high pressure will follow until the next
frontal system with showers and possibly thunderstorms Wednesday
through early Thursday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
547 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-292200-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
547 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another line of showers and storms are expected to move from west to
east through our region through this evening. Although the severe
threat appears to have diminished, a few strong to severe storms
are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, hail is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Much colder air will follow a cold front late this week. Freezing
temperatures are possible both Thursday night and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-292200-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
547 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The severe threat has decreased across the western and northern
Piedmont counties. However, an isolated strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out as a secondary line of showers and possibly
thunderstorms move through the area during the late afternoon and
early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Much colder air will follow a cold front late this week. Freezing
temperatures are possible both Thursday night and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ008>010-025-026-040-041-074>076-083-084-292200-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Durham-Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Montgomery-Moore-
Lee-Anson-Richmond-
547 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another line of showers and storms are expected to move from west to
east through our region through this evening. Although the severe
threat appears to have diminished, a few strong to severe storms
are possible. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, hail is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Much colder air will follow a cold front late this week. Freezing
temperatures are possible both Thursday night and Friday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
533 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DORTCHES            36.00N 77.80W
03/28/2021                   NASH               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA WRAL REPORTED A TREE DOWN
            ALONG BRIAR GLENN ROAD.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
541 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NASHVILLE               35.97N 77.96W
03/28/2021                   NASH               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA WRAL REPORTED A TREE ON A
            RESIDENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF E
            WASHINGTON STREET AND S NC-58.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     KGSB                    35.35N 77.94W
03/28/2021  E52 MPH          WAYNE              NC   AWOS

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT SEYMOUR JOHNSON AFB.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             4 SSW PLEASANT GARDEN   35.91N 79.80W
03/27/2021  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC SENT IN PICTURES OF HAIL DAMAGE TO
            RESIDENCE ALONG CABLE FARM TRAIL. DAMAGE TO
            SIDING AND BROKEN WINDOWS.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
631 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

NCZ021-282300-
Forsyth NC-
631 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FORSYTH COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing thunderstorm
near Winston-Salem, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Kernersville, Clemmons, Huntsville, Lewisville,
Walkertown, Rural Hall, Pfafftown, Stanleyville and Sedge Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3620 8044
      3626 8035 3626 8004 3601 8005 3603 8017
      3603 8021 3602 8022 3603 8045 3606 8046
      3604 8049 3605 8051 3606 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 266DEG 34KT 3613 8034

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
700 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

NCZ021>023-290000-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-Forsyth NC-
700 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALAMANCE...
SOUTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND GUILFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 700 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Monroeton to 6 miles
southeast of Winston-Salem. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Kernersville, Elon,
McLeansville, Summerfield, Gibsonville and Haw River.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7986 3624 7926 3615 7926 3599 7954
      3601 8005 3603 8021 3600 8022 3600 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 258DEG 45KT 3624 7980 3602 8020