Fire Weather Watch 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

873 
WWUS82 KRAH 300725
RFWRAH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
325 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...Low humidity and strong gusty winds will lead to high fire 
danger today...

.Windy and dry conditions today will lead to a high fire danger, 
make any fire difficult to control.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-302300-
/O.UPG.KRAH.FW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210430T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.FW.W.0002.210430T1400Z-210430T2300Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
325 AM EDT Fri Apr 30 2021

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a Red Flag
Warning for elevated fire danger, which is in effect from 10 AM 
this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is 
no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...All of central North Carolina.

* TIMING...Late this morning through early evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the mid 70s to lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Outdoor fires may easily grow out of control in 
  these conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will
create dangerous fire behavior.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 PM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross our region late tonight, followed by a
second dry backdoor cold front passage Friday evening. High pressure
passing over the region Saturday will return temperatures close to
normal. This high will then push offshore Saturday night, and
temperatures will again soar above normal for Sunday through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Cold front noted on the latest analysis now moving across the Ohio
and Miss River Valleys are also accompanied by a band of showers and
tstms. This front and the pre-front convection will continue moving
east this evening and tonight; however, nearly all the CAMs show the
bulk of this activity mostly dissipating on the lee side of the
mountains as it both downslope and encounters a more stable low
level airmass across the Piedmont. However, a few isold showers are
progged to remain but mainly across our northern zones and may
result in 1/10 inch or less of QPF as they move across between 04Z
and 09Z tonight.

The other feature worth noting are the gusty pre- and post-frontal
winds assoc with the tight pres gradient over the region.  Right now
we're seeing SW winds with frequent gusts in the 20-30 mph range! As
the front moves through tonight, look for these winds to shift to W
by 08Z then NW by 12Z.

In the wake of the front (mainly beginning late tonight), low level
thicknesses will begin to noticeably drop.   We'll lose about 25m
late tonight, followed by addition CAA Friday and Friday night. Lows
tonight from the upper 50 NW to upper 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Dry, windy and cooler wx can be expected during this time in the
wake of early Friday morning's fropa.  The upper trough axis is
progged to pass across the region by mid-day Friday, and a secondary
upr short wave (with additional CAA in it's wake) will move through
around 06Z Saturday.  High pressure will then begin to build east
toward our area late Friday night.

Despite the aforementioned upper features, vigorous NW flow and
drying will prevail. Speaking of gusty, with the sfc high over the
western Great Lakes region at 18Z Friday quickly building SEWD, a
tight pres gradient along with CAA-promoted low level mixing and
resulting momentum transfer will once again result in windy
conditions tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph from the NW.

Finally, with low level thicknesses 30+m lower than today, look
for highs from the mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE.  Chilly lows Friday
night...ranging from the mid 40s NW to around 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

High pressure will dominate the southeastern United States Saturday,
then move over the Atlantic Ocean Sunday. With the center of the
high to the west of the forecast area Saturday, a refreshing
northwest wind will yield temperatures a few degrees below normal.
Southwesterly wind on Sunday will allow temperatures to spike about
10 degrees, despite increasing cloud cover.

The weather will become unsettled by the beginning of the work week,
with multiple upper level troughs moving across the region. Despite
chance pops throughout the forecast, a washout is not expected, with
different areas likely seeing showers and isolated thunderstorms
each day. Wednesday should be the day with the highest chance for
precipitation as the upper level trough will be accompanied by a
surface cold front. The cold front will be welcome by Wednesday, as
southwesterly flow continuing through the beginning of next week
will result in well above normal temperatures. Many locations
southeast of US-1 should approach 90 degrees on Tuesday before
cooling down slightly with increased cloud cover along the cold
front Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 133 PM Thursday...

Through 18Z Friday: VFR conditions should persist through the 24
hour TAF period.  Although a cold front is forecast to move across
central NC, the BL will remain dry with most of the deeper moisture
between H7 and H5 and quickly moving across the region tonight. That
will mean cigs will vary between 5K and 10K later today and tonight,
and a few isold rain showers between 06-12Z Friday can't be ruled
out, but overall it looks like flt conditions should remain VFR.
Otherwise, gusty SW sfc winds of 15-25+kt will continue, and then
gradually veer to W by 06Z then NW by 12Z Friday.

After 18Z Friday: VFR conditions will hold areawide from 18Z Fri
through the weekend under high pressure. The next chance of sub-VFR
conditions and showers will occur on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER /Friday/...
As of 217 PM Thursday...

Gusty NW winds and drying as noted in the short term disc, will
result in min RH values bottoming out around 25% for a couple hours
Friday afternoon.   Meanwhile, winds will be frequently gusting aoa
25 mph.   Thus after coordination with the NCFS, we will be issuing a
fire weather watch for central NC for Friday from Noon until 7 pm.

&&

.CLIMATE /RECORD HIGHS/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Thursday, April 29
GSO...93...1915
RDU...91...1914
FAY...95...1981

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...np
FIRE...np
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
336 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
336 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

On Friday, the combination of low humidity, gusty winds, and dry
grasses and tree litter may bring a risk for adverse fire behavior.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.