Areal Flood Advisory 41, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Elsa will track through the region
through this evening, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the
area. In its wake, a weak surface trough will develop across the
Carolinas and remain in place through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1002 AM Thursday...

...Flash Flood Watch in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM today...
...Tornado Watch in effect for portions of Coastal Plain until 3 PM
today...

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Elsa continues to overspread
the area this morning with nearly all sites seeing measurable precip
as of 10 am. The heaviest rainfall so far has been across portions
of the Sandhills and the southern Coastal Plain where 1.5 to locally
2.5 inches of rain has fallen. In addition, a few cells exhibiting
transient rotation have developed through the morning (mainly along
and east of I-95) within an area of limited CAPE and enhanced 0-1km
per SPC mesoanalysis. As is typically the case with tropical
systems, the primary tornado threat will be confined to areas east
of the track. Based on the last few runs of the HRRR and the 00Z
HREF, the orientation of the existing Tornado Watch covers the
threat area well both temporally and spatially. With the circulation
center rapidly moving through the area, the tornado threat should
wane by mid afternoon.

Meanwhile, rainfall will continue to increase across the area with
upstream radar estimates within the banded precip indicating the
worst is yet to come. Going to leave the Flash Flood Watch in place
for the time being, may end up trimming out the western periphery
near the Triad if rainfall totals don't start picking up within the
next few hours but everywhere else is looks in good shape.

Finally, winds have been breezy/gusty at times but below tropical
storm thresholds with a peak gust of 29kts seen earlier at KFAY and
27kts at KMEB. Similar values can be expected throughout the day
across the Coastal Plain, lesser values to the west. As the storm
exits the area later this afternoon, additional breeziness on the
western edge will develop within an area of deeper BL mixing. Winds
between 15-20kts are expected through early evening, decreasing
quickly overnight.

Temps today will move little with mid/upper 70s for highs, lows
around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Some clouds could linger east of Raleigh around sunrise Friday, but
clouds should quickly clear by late morning. However, a boundary
appears likely to move across the Appalachian Mountains by early
afternoon and bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily
across southwestern counties. Will continue with chance pops across
the entire forecast area, and will also keep a slight chance of
thunderstorms Friday evening to the east of Interstate 95. With the
departure of Elsa, temperatures will return close to normal, around
90 and 70 for highs/lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Fairly typical mid-summer weather is expected in this stretch, with
high and low temps likely to be within a degree or so of seasonal
normals. Chances for daily scattered showers and storms will peak on
Sun through Tue, bracketed by lower chances Sat and Wed.

Sat/Sat night: Elsa's remnant low will be moving over the Canadian
Maritimes and into the far NW Atlantic Sat. Between this and a
digging/deepening positively tilted mid level trough (culminating in
a closed low) over the Midwest will be a broad and weak trough, with
a weak surface trough extending through the Piedmont. With a lack of
opportunity for moisture return in the low levels (with very weak
surface flow across the region) and mid levels (light westerly
steering flow), along with low deep-layer shear, modest forecast
CAPE, and no focus for convection, pops Sat/Sat night should be low.
Will have isolated mentions at most. Expect near normal temps.

Sun through Mon night: The surface trough through the wrn Piedmont
will linger Sun into Mon, and moisture over central NC should deepen
through the column within deepening southerly flow between the
strengthening low over IA/MO/IL and strengthening anticyclone off
the Carolina coast. This should result in a relative peak in daily
convection changes during this period, focused on (but not
restricted to) the afternoons/evenings. Expect high temps near to
slightly below normal with lows near normal.

Tue through Wed: Pops should trend back downward as the mid level
anticyclone off the Carolina coast drifts westward, resulting in
drying/warming/subsiding mid levels along with a weakening southerly
surface flow. Will keep climo chance pops Tue before knocking them
back down to isolated Wed. After near normal temps Tue, given
expected lower cloud cover and rising low level thicknesses, temps
should be slightly above normal Wed. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM Thursday...

Ceiling restrictions have already reached all terminals, with
showers from Tropical Storm Elsa moving into the region from south
to north. The heaviest showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected during the late morning and early afternoon hours, with
widespread IFR conditions expected and brief LIFR conditions
possible. However, there is not enough confidence in timing/location
of bands to place any LIFR conditions in the TAFs at this time. The
center of circulation could pass right over RDU around 19Z, making
that site's winds the most difficult to forecast. The NHC forecast
calls for Elsa to remain a tropical storm as it moves across the
region, meaning that RWI/FAY are the most favored locations to
observe 35 kt winds. Rain should depart during the late afternoon,
although there will be several hours of low ceilings before clearing
begins.

Outlook: Restrictions are likely Friday morning with clearing skies,
radiational cooling, and saturated soil after the widespread
rainfall. After that, diurnal convection is expected each day
through the forecast period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
839 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-073-074-083-091245-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-
Montgomery-Anson-
839 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

The remnants of Elsa are expected to track across central NC today.
One to two inches of rain, locally higher, may result in flooding,
particularly in urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ008>011-025-026-040-041-075-076-084-085-091245-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Moore-
Lee-Richmond-Scotland-
839 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

The remnants of Elsa are expected to track across central NC today.
Two to three inches of rain, locally higher, may result in flooding,
particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. An isolated tornado
or two, and gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph, will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ027-028-042-043-077-078-086-088-089-091245-
Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
839 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 349 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

The remnants of Elsa are expected to track across central NC today.
Two to three inches of rain, locally higher, may result in flooding,
particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. Gusty winds between
30 and 40 mph will also be possible. There is also a tornado threat
through mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
109 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE PIKEVILLE         35.47N 77.97W
07/08/2021  M33 MPH          WAYNE              NC   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGWW IN GOLDSBORO REPORTED A
            TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 33 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 SSE PIKEVILLE         35.47N 77.97W
07/08/2021                   WAYNE              NC   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGWW IN GOLDSBORO REPORTED A
            TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 33 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
112 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 N SOUTHERN PINES      35.22N 79.40W
07/08/2021                   MOORE              NC   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KSOP SOUTHERN PINES REPORTED A
            TROPICAL STORM WIND GUST OF 30 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT THU JUL 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 ESE CLINTON           34.99N 78.31W
07/08/2021                   SAMPSON            NC   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1159W 1.2 E CLINTON
            (WEATHERSTEM) REPORTED A TROPICAL STORM WIND
            GUST OF 37 MPH.

&&