Winter Weather Advisory 26, NWS Pueblo, CO

678 
WWUS45 KPUB 102109
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

COZ058-060-072-073-079>082-084-110515-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.210511T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
309 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,
  except 6 to 10 inches above 8000 feet. Winds gusting as high as
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast 
  Colorado.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

710 
WWUS45 KPUB 110334
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
934 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

COZ085-111145-
/O.EXA.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
934 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
  Heaviest accumulations will be over the northern portion of the
  zone.

* WHERE...Southern El Paso County.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ058-060-072-073-079>082-084-111145-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
934 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,
  except 6 to 10 inches above 8000 feet. Winds gusting as high as
  35 mph.

* WHERE...Sawatch, Mosquito, northern Sangre de Cristo, and Wet
  Mountains, Pikes Peak, Teller and northern El Paso Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

451 
WWUS45 KPUB 110958
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
358 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

COZ058-060-072-073-079>082-084-111800-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
358 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Sawatch, Mosquito, northern Sangre de Cristo, and Wet 
  Mountains, Pikes Peak, Teller and northern El Paso Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute, especially on
  Interstate 25 over Monument Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ085-111800-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
358 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 
  inches. Heaviest accumulations will be over the northern 
  portion of the zone.

* WHERE...Southern El Paso County.

* WHEN...Until noon MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

430 
WWUS45 KPUB 111525
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
925 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

COZ058-060-072-073-079>082-084-085-111630-
/O.CAN.KPUB.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-210511T1800Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
925 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow showers have decreased significantly over the higher terrain
and El Paso county. Web cams also show the roadways are mostly
just wet. For this reason the snow advisory which was in effect
has been cancelled. Through the rest of the day, the best chance
of some light accumulating snow will be over the central 
mountains, and the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak area, 
generally above 10000 feet.

$$

Hodanish

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
434 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

...Wet and cool today, areas of snow possible tonight...

Currently...satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across
southern Colorado early this morning.  Radar has two areas of light
precipitation, a band running from Fremont County, northeast across
El Paso County, and south across Las Animas, Prowers and Baca
Counties.  Area observations indicate snow levels running around
6500 feet, with minor accumulations on elevated or grassy surface
over Monument Hill possible through sunrise.  Light rain will
continue across much of the area this morning, with precipitation
amounts of a few hundreths possible.

Today...an upper level low is forecast to drift southward out of
southern Idaho and into northern Utah by this afternoon.  Two upper
disturbances embedded in the flow will impact southern Colorado,
this first this morning, which is responsible for the light rain and
snow across eastern Colorado, and the second moving across the state
by late afternoon.

Expect light precipitation to continue this morning with the first
upper disturbance.  There will likely be a lull in activity by late
morning to early afternoon.  It will be cloudy and cool.  Lowered
temperatures a few degrees, with mid 40s for most of the Eastern
Plains this afternoon.  By this afternoon, impacts from the next
upper disturbance will begin to be felt across the Plains.  Models
in good agreement with an surface low developing near Trinidad. This
will allow for broad and moist easterly flow to spread across the
Plains.  Dewpoints are forecast to remain in the upper 30s to lower
40s, while easterly winds strengthen to near 25 to 30 mph across the
Plains.  Weak instability is expected by early afternoon over the
Mountains, where a few thunderstorms are expected.  These storms
will shift east off the Mountains and into the I-25 corridor by mid
afternoon.

The San Luis Valley will be the warm spot today, with near critical
fire weather conditions possible.  Humidity values are expected to
be higher this afternoon, with upper teen percentages, while winds
could gust in excess of 25 mph.  Highs today will reach into to the
lower 60s.

Tonight...the main upper trough is forecast to track east out of
northern Utah and across northern Colorado tonight.  Easterly moist
upslope flow will continue across the Plains, with model guidance
developing widespread heavy precipitation by early evening.  QPF
guidance suggests over an inch of liquid may be possible across the
Plains, with some high-res amounts over 1.5 inches.  One thing is
for certain, beneficial precipitation is going to fall.  As for snow
potential, expect snow levels to fall near 6 kft overnight.  Areas
over the Eastern Mountains and Rampart Range could see 6 to 10
inches.  Areas over the Palmer Divide will likely see 1 to 4 inches,
with locally higher amounts possible.  Areas into southern Colorado
Springs could see an inch or so, but will likely see a mix seeing
that snow levels will be around 6 kft.  For areas under 6 kft, a
brief change over to snow may be possible by morning, with no
accumulations expected.  This includes the Pueblo area.  Overnight
lows will be tricky, with most areas hovering in the lower to mid
30s overnight.  There could be patchy areas of freezing conditions,
mainly over the Palmer Divide, but a few areas down along the lower
Arkansas River could flirt with lower 30s.  Mozley

Tuesday...the upper level trough is forecast to shift east into
Nebraska through the day.  Model guidance has much of the
precipitation exiting into Kansas during the morning hours.  By the
afternoon, CAPE values are expected to approach 500 j/kg over the
Mountains.  Residual moisture and weak easterly upslope flow will
allow for thunderstorms to develop by early afternoon.  Given the
northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of the trough, thunderstorms
are forecast to move off the higher terrain, and into the I-25
corridor by late afternoon.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected over the San Luis
Valley once again.  Humidity values are expected to fall to near 15
percent, however, surface winds look to remain under critical
thresholds.

Once again, lowered temperature across the Plains, with expected
cloud cover helping to keep near steady temperatures.  Highs will
only reach the lower to mid 40s.  It will also be slightly cooler
across the San Luis Valley, with mid 50s for highs.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

A much quieter second half of the work week is expected as large
scale mid-level ridging will be moving in overhead with troughing
moving eastward on Wednesday. Some lingering showers possible
Wednesday, mostly across the higher terrain with northwest flow,
albeit weak, in place.

Temperatures start their upward climb Wednesday and should be back
to normal and above by Thursday. This trend will continue through
next weekend. Minimal rain chances expected through the weekend with
isolated activity possible and mostly confined to the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

Today...KCOS/KPUB MVFR to IFR, KALS VFR. The current IFR conditions
at KCOS should remain in place much of the TAF cycle as continued
moist east flow prevails with the addition of more rain and snow by
later this evening. There maybe a brief shot later this morning of
reaching MVFR CIGS as the morning round of rain winds down. The same
can be said for KPUB though the lowering to IFR looks to be delayed
until shortly after sunrise. At KALS a few passing showers are
possible though impacts at the terminal look minimal. High
confidence.

Tonight...Poor flying conditions continue at KCOS/KPUB with snow
developing and spreading into the region. There will likely be an
accumulating snow at KCOS, probably not so much at KPUB, so we keep
the CIGS low and will likely need to drop the VSBYS into the LIFR
range for a time at KCOS. At KALS once again not much direct impact
expected tonight. Medium to high confidence overall.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
COZ081-082.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-111115-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
509 AM MDT Mon May 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
and evening across the San Luis Valley where wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph are possible.  Humidity values are expected to remain above 15
percent.

Periods of rain are forecast through this afternoon from the
Mountains, across the Plains.  A few sub-severe thunderstorms may
also be possible in and near the mountains.  Precipitation will
increase by late afternoon, and become heavy overnight.  Snowfall
amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over the Eastern Mountains and
Rampart Range by Tuesday morning.  Locations over the Palmer Divide
and El Paso County north of Colorado Springs could see 1 to 4
inches, with locally higher amounts possible, with snow levels
falling to near 6000 feet.  Locations across the Plains could see
rainfall amounts exceeding one inch by morning.

Temperatures will fall into the lower 30s across El Paso County, and
for areas along the lower Arkansas River Valley by Tuesday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Tuesday...showers and snowfall will come to an end Tuesday morning.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible, initially over
the Mountains, spreading east into the Interstate 25 corridor by
Tuesday afternoon.

Warmer and drier conditions expected Wednesday onward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible through tonight above 6000 feet.

88/88