Alert archive / Colorado / Winter Storm Watches in 2021

Winter Storm Watch 14, NWS Pueblo, CO

December 26, 2021Conejos County, Mineral County, Rio Grande County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this winter storm watch at Dec 26, 2021, 2:52 PM MST for Conejos County, Mineral County, Rio Grande County, Colorado. It took effect at Dec 27, 2021, 11:00 AM MST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 26, 2021, 2:52 PM MST (21:52 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 27, 2021, 11:00 AM MST
Expired
Dec 27, 2021, 3:33 AM MST
In force
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO

Counties Conejos County, CO, Mineral County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 230 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Grand Junction, CO (KGJT), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Grand Junction, CO at 12:00Z on 2021-12-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Grand Junction, CO at 12:00Z on 2021-12-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 165 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175194Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1865 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
113 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
271 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

124 
WWUS45 KPUB 262152
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
252 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

COZ068-270600-
/O.NEW.KPUB.WS.A.0014.211227T1800Z-211229T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
252 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, light snow and blowing snow
  with low visibility. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total 
  snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Winds could gust as 
  high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until midnight MST 
  tonight. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Monday morning 
  through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in 
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ060-270600-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
252 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 10 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing considerable 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on icy and snow packed roads. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed 
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ066-067-270600-
/O.EXT.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-
252 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing widespread blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Upper Rio Grande Valley and Eastern San Juan Mountains
  Below 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until midnight MST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as 
  low as 20 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions 
  are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ058-059-061-270600-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
252 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 4 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing widespread blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Lake County Below 11000 Feet including Leadville,
  Western Mosquito Range and East Lake County Above 11000 Feet,  
  and Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as 
  low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$
3 follow-up statements
297 
WWUS45 KPUB 270545
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

COZ068-271345-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.A.0014.211227T1800Z-211229T1800Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
1045 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, light snow and blowing snow
  with low visibility. Additional snow accumulations generally an
  inch or two. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible . 
  Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet possible. Winds could 
  gust as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until midnight MST 
  tonight. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Monday morning 
  through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in 
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ060-271200-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
1045 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing considerable 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on icy and snow packed roads. Widespread 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold 
  wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ058-059-061-271200-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
1045 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing widespread 
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Lake County Below 11000 Feet including Leadville, 
  Western Mosquito Range and East Lake County Above 11000 Feet, 
  and Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ066-067-270700-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-
1045 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of an inch or two. Winds
  gusting as high as 70 mph causing widespread blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Upper Rio Grande Valley and Eastern San Juan Mountains 
  Below 10000 Feet.

* WHEN...Until midnight MST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 20 below zero could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Hodanish
682 
WWUS45 KPUB 270643
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

COZ068-271445-
/O.EXP.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.A.0014.211227T1800Z-211229T1800Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
1143 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...The winter storm warning will expire tonight. A new
  winter storm watch goes in effect late tomorrow morning, and 
  snowfall amounts of 12 to 24 inches will be possible Winds could
  gust as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet County.

* WHEN...From 11 AM MST Monday through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Areas of blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as
  15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are 
  not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 

&&

$$

COZ066-067-270745-
/O.EXP.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T0700Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-
1143 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT...

The winter weather advisory for the La Garita mountains will
expire tonight. Light snow will be possible the rest of tonight.
More snow will re-develop tomorrow and last into Wednesday. 

$$

COZ060-271200-
/O.CON.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
1143 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet County.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25 
  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ058-059-061-271200-
/O.CON.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211227T1200Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
1143 PM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of an inch or two. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet, 
  Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet and 
  Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 20 
  below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little 
  as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Hodanish
507 
WWUS45 KPUB 271033
WSWPUB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

COZ068-271845-
/O.UPG.KPUB.WS.A.0014.211227T1800Z-211229T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211230T0000Z/
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
333 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet
  with locally higher amounts across the west and southwest 
  facing slopes. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph causing 
  considerable blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at
  times. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could 
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Continuous snow with several rounds of
  heavier snow will impact the area through the period. The
  heaviest snow will fall this afternoon through tonight and again
  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Although snow will fall
  lighter at times, strong winds and widespread blowing snow will
  keep travel conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ060-271845-
/O.EXT.KPUB.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-211230T0000Z/
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
333 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph causing considerable
  blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed 
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Continuous light to moderate snow will
  impact the area through the period. The heaviest snow will fall
  this afternoon through tonight and again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning. Although snow will fall lighter at times,
  strong winds and widespread blowing snow will keep travel
  conditions hazardous.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ066-271845-
/O.EXB.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211230T0000Z/
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
333 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph causing areas of blowing snow.

* WHERE...La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed 
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Continuous light to moderate snow will
  impact the area through the period. The heaviest snow will fall
  this afternoon through tonight and again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning. Although snow will fall lighter at times,
  strong winds and areas of blowing snow will keep travel 
  conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

COZ058-059-061-271845-
/O.EXT.KPUB.WW.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-211228T1500Z/
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
333 AM MST Mon Dec 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 55 mph causing blowing and drifting
  snow.

* WHERE...Lake County Below 11000 Feet, Western Mosquito Range and East
  Lake County Above 11000 Feet and Western Chaffee County Between
  9000 and 11000 Feet Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM MST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold wind chills
  as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin 
  in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 26, 10:38 AM MST, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 10:38 AM MST, 4 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1038 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

Key messages:

1) Heavy snow will continue across the Continental Divide with
significant wind driven snow and poor visibility

2) Damaging wind gusts will spread across much of southern CO today
with gusts 70-85 mph in and near the mountains and gusts up to 65
mph across the lower elevations.

3) High Fire Danger expected across the I-25 corridor and southeast
plains today due to very strong winds and low relative humidity

4) Restricted visibility due to blowing dust will become a concern
this afternoon across the San Luis Valley and southeast plains with
blowing dust warnings possible if visibility drops sufficiently

Winds have been gradually increasing across the higher mountains
with highest gust so far of 64 mph at Wolf Creek Pass.  With quite a
bit of forward shear aloft, the lower elevations have stayed below
high wind criteria so far, though that trend should be changing as
strong 100+ kt upper jet at H5 translates across the area through
the day.  With mixing it won't take much momentum transport to reach
high wind criteria across much of the region and high res
deterministic models and ensemble model blends are showing a strong
signal for widespread high wind criteria across the mountains San
Luis Valley and adjacent southeast plains. Main challenge is how far
east these higher gusts will get. Have expanded High Wind Warnings
once again to include Bent county. Western Kiowa and Baca counties
could get close, but there has not been sufficient run-to-run
agreement in the high res models to warrant expansion that far east.
Crude analysis of forecast surface pressure gradient suggests it
could get very close though and will be monitoring high res model
runs closely to see if further expansions eastward will be
necessary. Wind should decrease after 00z and ending time of High
Wind Warnings at 8 PM still looks good.  Areas of blowing dust will
also be of high concern today across the plains with the possibility
of needing some blowing dust warnings if visibility becomes
sufficiently restricted.

With the strong winds and low relative humidity, critical fire
weather conditions will also remain a high concern today. Getting
humidity levels right around 15 percent across much of the plains
within current Red Flag Warning area. Some areas to watch will be
the eastern fringes of the fire zones 221, 222 and 225 (Pikes Peak,
Fremont county and the Wets and Sangres).  Humidity levels range in
the 18-25 percent range for these areas but most of these zones
maintain higher humidity values over/near the mountains where. some
blow over snow showers will occur at times. Thus, will keep these
zones out of the Red Flag Warning, however any activities which
could start a fire should be curtailed in and near the Red Flag
Warning given such strong winds today.

Meanwhile, heaviest snow will impact the Continental Divide today
with snowfall rates tailing back this evening behind the upper
trough passage.  Still looking additional accumulations of up to a
foot for the eastern San Juan mountains and up to 8 inches for the
eastern Sawatch range.  Getting lesser amounts for the La Garitas,
western Mosquitoes and the the lower elevations of Lake county, but
given the strong winds over fresh snow pack, combined with some
lighter accumulations of up to 4 inches, widespread blowing and
drifting snow will cause adverse conditions. Current advisories
handle this well.  Snowfall decreases overnight and suspect that
highlights may be able to be cancelled a bit earlier than current 5
AM expiration. The eastern San Juans will see at least scattered
snow showers continue into Monday but accumulations after midnight
look pretty light.  Expansion of highlights down that way into
Monday do not look necessary at this point as there may be a
sufficient break between this storm and the beginning of the next.
But this will continue to be assessed. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

Key Messages:

- Multiple waves embedded in the upper-level flow will make their
way across Colorado throughout the week, bringing copious amounts of
precipitation to the mountains. The San Juans will likely get hit
the hardest with snow, as has been the pattern recently, with the
Continental Divide also getting some accumulations.

- After a brief decrease in precipitation after mid-week, more
unsettled weather appears to be in store for next weekend, with more
mountain snow and a potential cooldown.

Monday-Wednesday...

The first embedded shortwave of the work week will begin to pass
over on Monday, with effects lasting until mid-week. The flow aloft
will mostly remain west-southwesterly, but with the strength of the
upper-level jet, a few things become clear. First, orographic lift
will be plentiful over our western mountains, and accumulating snow
will be inevitable over the higher terrain. Snow showers are
expected to begin Monday over the San Juans and Continental Divide,
before spreading to the Sangre de Cristos. The Sangres should only
get a few inches, while the Cont. Divide will be seeing upwards of a
foot or so. Meanwhile, the greater accumulations over the San Juans
will continue, with additional snowfall measuring upwards of several
feet by the end of the day on Wednesday. Cooler air is expected to
filter into the area along with this wave as well. Monday and
Tuesday will be similar, with high temperatures in the high-40s to
low-50s over the plains, and 20-30s over the higher terrain. Cooler
air will filter in with the main part of the jet on Wednesday, and
highs will mainly be in the 30s to low-40s.

Wednesday night-Thursday...

An upper-level low will dip south off the west coast, while the main
jet flattens out somewhat aloft, providing Colorado with a brief
lull in the unsettled weather pattern. The moist airmass from the
previous few days will still be in place, although lift will be much
weaker, leaving us with a few light snow showers expected mainly
over the San Juans on Thursday. Additionally, high temperatures will
noticeably rebound, increasing into the low-50s again over the
eastern plains.

Friday Onwards...

Model solutions become less clear at this point, but current
deterministic solutions suggest that the closed upper-low will move
in from the west coast before merging with the main energy of the
upper-level trough. This could potentially bring more prolific snow
to our mountains into next weekend. Meanwhile, high temperatures
will increase by about 5 degrees on Friday before a potent cold
front is currently slated to pass over the plains on Saturday,
knocking temperatures back down to near-seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1026 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

At KALS, prevailing conditions will remain VFR, with brief
periods(20-30 minutes) of MVFR vis possible due to blowing dust
and/or snow showers this afternoon. SW winds will remain strong,
gusting near 50 kts until sunset. VFR conditions expected
overnight with diminishing winds.

At KPUB and KCOS, VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs. Low
risk of brief MVFR vis at KPUB due to blowing dust, though expect
bulk of any visibility restrictions to be farther east toward
KLHX. Strong sw winds will gust 45-50 kts until sunset at both
sites, then become more w-nw and diminish this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ226>237.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ069>080-
083>089-093-094-097.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ058-059-061-
066-067.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ060-068.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 5:03 AM MST, 9 hours 49 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
503 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-271215-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
503 AM MST Sun Dec 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy wind driven snow will continue today along the Continental
Divide with an additional 4 to 12 inches of snow possible.
Considerable blowing and drifting snow will make travel hazardous
across the mountain passes.

Damaging winds will spread across the mountains, San Luis Valley,
and most of the southeast plains today.  Gusts up to 80 mph will be
possible across the mountains with gusts up to 65 mph across the
lower elevations.  Areas of blowing dust could reduce visibility to
less than a mile at times across the San Luis Valley and portions of
the southeast plains today at the height of the strongest winds.

The strong winds combined with the persistent dry conditions will
lead to very high fire danger across the southeast plains today
where conditions will be favorable for very rapid rates of fire
growth and spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Moderate to heavy snow will be possible over our mountains Monday
into Tuesday with the passage of another upper-level wave. Along
with this, winds over the entire area will be increasing and will
remain gusty. The heaviest snow will be over our western
mountains.

After a brief lull around Thursday, precipitation over the
mountains will increase again heading into next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely across south central and southeast Colorado today, and across
the mountains continuing into tonight.

31/GARBEROGLIO

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:07 PM MST, 45 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
207 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE HOEHNE            37.27N 104.33W
12/26/2021  M71 MPH          LAS ANIMAS         CO   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KTAD TRINIDAD AIRPORT.

&&

MW
Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:08 PM MST, 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
208 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S CHERAW              38.05N 103.52W
12/26/2021  M64 MPH          OTERO              CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KLHX LA JUNTA AIRPORT.

&&

MW
Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:47 PM MST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE FLORENCE          38.42N 105.10W
12/26/2021  M60 MPH          FREMONT            CO   AWOS

            AWOS STATION K1V6 FREMONT COUNTY ARPT.

&&

MW
Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:48 PM MST, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW SWISSVALE          38.44N 105.96W
12/26/2021  M61 MPH          FREMONT            CO   MESONET

            MESONET STATION BEKC2 BEAR CREEK.

&&

MW
Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:49 PM MST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE PETERSON AFB       38.82N 104.68W
12/26/2021  M53 MPH          EL PASO            CO   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KCOS COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT.

&&

MW
Local storm report, Dec 26, 2:50 PM MST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
250 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE AIR FORCE ACADEMY  38.97N 104.82W
12/26/2021  M52 MPH          EL PASO            CO   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KAFF US AIR FORCE ACADEMY.

&&

MW

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Colorado, 2021Every winter storm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.