Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

.Tonight...Convection will end by late evening over the forecast
area. Will have to watch for precipitation over Chaffee County
this evening as a few of the models suggest convection lingering
well into the evening. Given the heavy rains over the past few
days, there may be localized concerns for some flooding in
vulnerable areas. Another concern is the surge of more moist air
from the east impinging on the eastern mountains. Some models have
been suggesting heavier rainfall as it approaches the mountains.
HRRR, RAP, and NAMNest show higher CAPE/lower LI of the airmass,
but it also shows it to be capped. Will have to watch for parcel
breaking the cap for storms with heavier rainfall.

.Monday...Upper high builds to the north with the deeper moisture
getting pushed to the New Mexico border and into the Eastern San
Juans. The threat for heavier rain and severe weather will
decrease across the northern portion of the forecast area where
the drier air aloft will move into the area, The greatest threat
for locally heavy downpours will mostly be along southern border,
especially from the I25 corridor and to the west. WPC has a
marginal excessive rain threat across the southern portion of the
CWA, which highlights the trend well. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...Warming and Drying Trend...

.Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure aloft builds to the
north of the region during the period and gradually builds
towards the south and east. The monsoon plume will be pushed
further to the west with subsidence and warming aloft. Over the
mountains, there will still be enough moisture for diurnal
convection, but it should be higher based with lesser threats for
locally heavy downpours. On the plains, the subsidence will limit
convection with PoPs being near zero close to the Kansas border.

.Friday through Sunday...Models and ensembles have been trending
with the upper high being weaker and further to the southeast.
This could result in the monsoon plume being further east,
allowing for more monsoon moisture to move into the region,
especially over the mountains. The ensembles also hint at a cold
front passage on the plains allowing for increased potential for
convection on the plains. Timing and other details are still vague
and NBM grids handle the situation well.  --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

VFR at all TAF sites except possibly during convection. Convection
will end by mid evening on Sunday at the TAF sites. On Monday, the
chances for convection will increase towards the south with KPUB
and KALS having better chances for convection than KCOS. Synoptic
forcing will be weak so it is difficult to pinpoint timing for
convection Monday afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-261745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1138 AM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms will develop early
in the afternoon over the mountains and spread to interior
valleys, the I-25 corridor and eastern plains by the middle of the
afternoon. The main risk with storms today will again be locally
heavy rainfall, which could produce flash flooding over recent
burn scars and across areas which have received heavy rain over
the past few days. A few stronger storms could also contain small
hail, gusty winds up to 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground
lightning. Storms will gradually weaken and dissipate during the
evening, with most activity ending by midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
continue across the mountains on Monday, with a few storms
possible along the I-25 corridor and across the eastern plains.
Storms will be slow moving and capable of producing locally heavy
rain, leading to enhanced flash flooding risks, especially for
area burn scars. Other storm threats will include lightning and
gusty outflow winds to around 50 mph, with small possible with the
stronger storms.

Storm coverage and intensity will begin to decrease from Tuesday
through the remainder of the work week, as available moisture
decreases across the region. There will be enough residual
moisture to support isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
storms each day, with the best coverage across the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across all of south central and southeast Colorado this
afternoon and evening.

06/RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
448 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ095>098-252345-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
448 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PROWERS...SOUTHEASTERN
KIOWA AND BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 446 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of strong
thunderstorms developing over, and spreading across, the advisory
area. This activity was moving slowly, with variable directions of
motion.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms, along with very heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Las Animas, Eads, Wiley, Neeoshe Reservoir, McClave,
Chivington, Brandon, Sweetwater Reservoir, Hasty, Neegronda
Reservoir, Queens Reservoir, John Martin Reservoir, Caddoa and Fort
Lyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10328 3849 10289 3846 10230 3766 10264
      3775 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 357DEG 4KT 3813 10298

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ076-077-252345-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
449 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

At 448 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Howard, or 11 miles north of Hayden Pass Burn Scar. This storm was
nearly stationary. A near stationary thunderstorm over the just
northeast of Howard and southwest of Waugh Mountain may cause
enhanced stream flows in streams and drainages. Around .75"-1.00" of
rain has been estimated by radar over the region.

Locations impacted include...
Howard.

LAT...LON 3853 10563 3838 10571 3844 10585 3857 10577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 107DEG 3KT 3847 10576

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ081-252330-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
451 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TELLER COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 451 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Divide, or 24 miles northwest of Colorado Springs. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Teller
County.

LAT...LON 3906 10529 3909 10523 3910 10513 3896 10509
      3895 10523 3898 10530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 330DEG 3KT 3903 10519

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ081-084-252330-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
453 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 453 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monument, or 19 miles north of Colorado Springs. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monument, Palmer Lake and Gleneagle.

LAT...LON 3908 10465 3902 10491 3913 10493 3913 10470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 330DEG 3KT 3912 10482

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
505 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ085-086-089-093-097-252345-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
505 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OTERO...SOUTHEASTERN EL
PASO...SOUTHERN CROWLEY...NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO AND NORTHWESTERN BENT
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 503 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of 50 to
55 mph winds moving southwestward across the advisory area around
around 25 mph. Also, strong thunderstorms may continue developing
along a line extending from Avondale to 10 miles northeast of
Higbee.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this activity,
along with heavy rains.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Pueblo, La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Fowler, Ordway,
Swink, Manzanola, Olney Springs, Boone, Sugar City, Cheraw, Crowley,
Pueblo Depot and Avondale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 10462 3776 10335 3818 10327 3857 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 330DEG 22KT 3824 10434 3788 10333

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
507 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

COZ084-085-260000-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
507 PM MDT Sun Jul 25 2021

At 506 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Black Forest, or 9 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, moving east
at 10 mph. Standing water has been reported over portions of
Marksheffel road in eastern Colorado Springs.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Colorado Springs, Black Forest, Falcon and Cimarron
Hills.

LAT...LON 3884 10469 3899 10483 3904 10468 3887 10446
      3879 10446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 253DEG 7KT 3895 10472

KTS