Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
319 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over
the mountain and the eastern plains through the evening. Latest
mesoanalysis points out that the Baca County may be the region where
a severe storm is possible. CAPE values >2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk
shear values around 30kts means that the environment is capable of
producing 1-1.5" hail and 60-70mph under the strongest storms. The
general idea is for thunderstorms to develop over the higher
elevations of the Raton Mesa and propagate easterly into the better
environment from 4pm to around 7PM this evening. Otherwise, the rest
of the region is expected to have outflow dominant storms through
the evening. As outflows spread from underneath the thunderstorms,
more pulse storms will develop. Main flash flood risk will dissipate
at around 7PM tonight as the diurnal wind fluctuations become
dominant and dampen the rising air over the mountains.

Sunday looks... quieter? As the upper level high pressure center
moves to the north-northeast, the best short waves will be outside
of the our forecast area. There is still the diurnal heating and
wind fluctuations that will cause isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, but the coverage, as compared to the last few days,
will be much less. A few areas of concern are the Raton Mesa and the
Colorado-Kansas border in which there are high levels of CAPE
expected to develop. If a shortwave does develop over those region,
initiating convection, then a stronger storm will be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

Upper level ridge amplifies slowly over the next several days,
with center of the anticyclone overhead or just to the nw of srn
CO through the period. In general, upper pattern will keep the
main moisture plume south and west of the region, though brief
flattening of the ridge may allow for a temporary influx of
moisture Wed before drier air returns by the end of the week.
Greatest chances for precip this week will be along the
Continental Divide, as deep mid level moisture will be nearby
over wrn CO. Pops decrease farther east, though most mountains and
interior valleys will see at least isolated to scattered storms
each afternoon/evening as moisture is recycled under the ridge.
Southeast plains could see an isolated storm on Mon as old
outflows from Sunday night convection linger in a fairly unstable
environment, before mainly dry conditions develop from Tue into
next weekend as forcing is weak and unfavorable steering currents
keep most convection close to the higher terrain. Storm chances
along I-25 the biggest question, as steering flow collapses and
even becomes weak easterly at times through the period. Overall,
expect convection to stay mainly west of the Interstate most days,
though any stronger storms over the higher terrain could generate
enough outflow to drive an isolated storm or two farther east,
with Wed looking most likely for this to happen, as upper ridge
flattens briefly. With ridge nearby or overhead, temps near to
slightly above seasonal averages look likely, with trend of 12z
models/guidance slightly warmer than past few runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

VFR conditions are expected over KALS, KCOS, and KPUB throughout the
forecast period. Each site has a chance at thunderstorms this
evening and during the afternoon tomorrow. Main concerns from those
storms will be gusty thunderstorm winds with a lower end chance at
MVFR and IFR conditions due to heavy rainfall lowering visibilities.
Diurnal wind fluctuations are expected outside of thunderstorm outflow
boundaries.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SKELLY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-181800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1149 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains around noon
and spread into the southeast plains this afternoon and evening. The
main risks with thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, small hail, and gusty erratic winds up to 50 mph.

One or two severe thunderstorms will be possible across northern
portions of the southeast plains late this afternoon and evening,
producing hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to around 60
mph. The area with the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms will be
northeast El Paso and Kiowa counties.

With the continued feed of moisture and more widespread thunderstorm
coverage over the mountains today, burn scar flash flooding will be
possible should one of the stronger storms impact these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The pattern is expected to remain active each day with afternoon
thunderstorms through the extended period. The most widespread
chances for thunderstorm activity will occur on Sunday, and one or
two storms across the far eastern plains may become strong to
severe. From Monday and onwards, the greatest potential for
thunderstorm activity will found across the higher terrain, and
especially along the Continental Divide.

Flash flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving thunderstorms
will continue to be the primary concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
possible across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

SKELLY/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ076-077-083-172245-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
409 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MDT...

At 409 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waugh Mountain, or 17 miles north of Hayden Pass Burn Scar, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cotopaxi, Texas Creek and Waugh Mountain.

LAT...LON 3829 10561 3847 10584 3870 10566 3870 10534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 299DEG 9KT 3855 10564

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ076-077-079-081-083-085-086-172300-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FREMONT...SOUTHWESTERN
TELLER...SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canon City, or 26 miles north of Junkins Burn Scar, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Royal Gorge, Canon City and Penrose.

LAT...LON 3851 10488 3830 10530 3845 10551 3859 10543
      3870 10535 3870 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 329DEG 17KT 3851 10520

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ087-088-172245-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
416 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO AND
NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walsenburg, or 23 miles east of Spring Burn Scar north of Highway
160, moving north at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg.

LAT...LON 3773 10485 3781 10470 3765 10450 3757 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 167DEG 5KT 3770 10472

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ081-084-172300-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
418 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND NORTHWESTERN
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodland Park, or 20 miles northwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland Park, Monument, Air Force Academy, Palmer Lake, Green
Mountain Falls, Divide, Crystola, Florissant and Chipita Park.

LAT...LON 3895 10494 3891 10509 3889 10531 3894 10533
      3902 10533 3913 10510 3913 10481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 322DEG 12KT 3906 10506

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
428 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ084-085-172245-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
428 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MDT...

At 427 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellicott, or 23 miles east of Colorado Springs, moving south at 5
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellicott.

LAT...LON 3894 10443 3895 10431 3880 10426 3879 10446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 004DEG 5KT 3890 10439

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
430 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

COZ099-172300-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
430 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BACA COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MDT...

At 430 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stonington to near Springfield. These
storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Walsh and Vilas.

LAT...LON 3742 10217 3754 10270 3740 10276 3727 10249
      3729 10223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 095DEG 4KT 3732 10226 3743 10272

Cohen