Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over them mountains
and have developed over the northeastern plains of Colorado. Latest
mesoanalysis data is showing higher dew points across the entire
plains, with around 1500 J/kg of CAPE located over the majority of
the plains as of 2PM. Earlier analyses had the 1500 J/kg isopleth
further east. The potential for a strong to severe storm has
increased. Main hazards will be 1" hail and 60 mph wind gusts are
possible over the plains. As storms continue to propagate east,
they'll enter higher CAPE and shear, which increases the hazard
under the strongest storms to 1.5" hail and 70 mph winds. CAMs are
still resolving a MCS/MCV near the Kansas border during the
overnight, which would keep the severe risk going over the plains
through around 3am tomorrow or so.

The high pressure center will become a more well defined circulation
as it propagates to the northeast on Saturday. The CAMs are
resolving an outflow boundary from the overnight MCS/MCV reaching
the eastern mountains tomorrow morning, which will bring moist air
to the plains. A weak wave aloft embedded in the anticyclonic flow,
with the gust front interactions with the mountains are expected to
produce scattered to widespread thunderstorms over the mountains.
The flow aloft is oriented from the west-northwest, which will
force some storms over the mountain valleys and the I-25 corridor.
The highest instability axis will align along the eastern
mountains, the Raton Mesa, the Colorado-New Mexico border, and
then along the Colorado-Kansas border, which is where the
strongest storms may form. CAPE values will range from 1500-2000
J/kg over the aforementioned areas (1000 J/kg over the
mountains), and 0-6km bulk shear values are around 30-35 kts. Main
hazards will be 1-1.5" hail and 60-70 mph winds under the
strongest storms. The ample moisture being pushed up against the
mountains are also increasing my concern for flash flooding over
the Spring and Junkins burn scars, but it will be dependent on
exactly where the storms form, which is uncertain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Upper level high pressure wanders northward from the 4 Corners
through the Central Rockies the next several days, eventually
ending up over nrn CO/wrn WY by the middle to end of next week. In
general, this pattern will produce drier/slightly warmer weather
across much of southern Colorado, especially along and east of the
mountains and through the southeast plains. Still a couple
convectively active days expected Sat/Sun as middle and low level
moisture persists across the region under light w-nw flow aloft,
with weak boundary near the Arkansas River Sat and along the NM
border Sun providing a focus for stronger storms. Again, main
risks will be heavy rain/flash flooding, though a few low end
severe storms will be possible given modest 20-30 kt shear.

Mid level moist plume is shunted south and eventually west of
Colorado beginning Mon, with areas along the Continental Divide
staying just close enough to the plume for enhanced chances of
tsra through the week. Convection will be much more isolated over
the eastern mountains as low/mid levels dry out, while I-25
corridor and eastern plains miss most of the activity as steering
currents become easterly mid/late week, taking any mountain
convection westward away from lower elevations. Max temps may cool
slightly Tue/Wed, especially plains, as some cooler air is pushed
into the region by easterly winds, but with upper high nearby by
the end of the week, temps after Wed likely to rise to slightly
above average levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KCOS, KPUB, KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours
for all three TAF sites. There is a possibility that the TAF sites
could be impacted by a thunderstorm this evening before
precipitation dissipates late in the evening. Winds will remain
light overnight, before beginning to increase in magnitude tomorrow
afternoon. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow afternoon and could bring brief heavy downpours, gusty
outflow winds, and frequent lightning. As with previous days,
confidence in a TAF site being directly impacted is low at this
time, so will only go with VCSH in the TAFs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...SIMCOE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-171745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains
around noon and move into the adjacent plains this afternoon and
evening.  The main risks with thunderstorms will be locally heavy
rainfall, lightning and gusty erratic winds up to 50 mph.  Across
the far southeast plains, one or two storms could become severe,
producing hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to around 60
mph. The area with the greatest risk will be east of a line from La
Junta to Kim.  There is the possibility for severe storms to persist
through the late evening across Kiowa and Prowers counties as a
thunderstorm cluster drops in from the north.

With a slight uptick in moisture and thunderstorm coverage over the
mountains today, burn scar flash flooding will be possible should
one of the stronger storms impact these areas. Given the hit or miss
nature to thunderstorms today, the risk for flash flooding still
appears low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The pattern is expected to remain active each day with afternoon
thunderstorms through the extended period. The most widespread
chances for thunderstorm activity will occur on Saturday, and to
a lesser extent on Sunday. From Monday and onwards, the greatest
potential for thunderstorm activity will found across the higher
terrain, and especially along the Continental Divide.

Flash flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving thunderstorms
will continue to be the primary concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
possible across the southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

SKELLY/SKELLY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
506 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ093-094-097-162330-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
506 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHEASTERN
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 25 miles north of Kim to 8 miles west of
Higbee. Movement was southeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

LAT...LON 3750 10310 3765 10369 3789 10361 3778 10307
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 326DEG 5KT 3760 10323 3780 10359

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
507 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ094-162330-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
507 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 507 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles southeast of Kim to 21 miles west of
Pritchett. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3757 10331 3750 10308 3700 10310 3700 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 254DEG 9KT 3702 10323 3748 10323

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
510 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ086-089-093-162330-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-Crowley County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
510 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OTERO...SOUTHWESTERN
CROWLEY AND EAST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 509 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
developing along a line extending from near Crowley to 10 miles
southwest of Fowler. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fowler, Ordway, Manzanola, Olney Springs and Crowley.

LAT...LON 3842 10395 3803 10420 3788 10404 3827 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 115DEG 11KT 3825 10392 3799 10410

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
532 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ086-162345-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
532 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 531 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking the leading edge of strong
winds from weakening showers and thunderstorms along a line
extending from 12 miles northeast of Boone to near Pueblo Depot.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo Depot.

LAT...LON 3831 10406 3830 10431 3842 10431 3847 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 302DEG 18KT 3841 10413 3839 10430

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
536 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ089-162345-
Crowley County CO-
536 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 536 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crowley, or 23 miles northwest of La Junta, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Olney Springs and Crowley.

LAT...LON 3823 10399 3827 10387 3814 10375 3814 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 314DEG 8KT 3819 10388

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
537 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

COZ095-170000-
Western Kiowa County CO-
537 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MDT...

At 537 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Haswell, or 40 miles northwest of Lamar, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Kiowa
County.

LAT...LON 3846 10314 3860 10316 3859 10303 3846 10292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 304DEG 8KT 3853 10310

Cohen