Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
846 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Extended the Flash Flood Watch over the Spring and Junkins Burn
Scars until midnight. CAMs keep heavy rain near and over the burn
scars. The antecedent conditions have primed the soils already
and if another wave of heavy rain develop over the aforementioned
scars, flash flooding will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Currently...

generally partly to mostly sunny skies were noted over the forecast
area this early afternoon. It was quite moist with dewpts in the 50s
plains and 30s and 40s mtns. Additionally, soundings were rather
saturated. A couple of subtle disturbances were noted, one over the
greater KLAA/KLHX area and another one moving south across the
Palmer Divide. It was cool over all of the region with temps int he
60s and 70s plains and valleys...and 50s and 60s mtns.

Through Tonight...

Main concern in the near term is flash flood potential. Soundings
are rather saturated and we are concerned about warm rain processes
occurring allowing for copious amounts of rainfall. Latest hi res
guidance is showing quite a large area above 1" in qpf over the
higher terrain. These rainfall amounts will have the potential to
cause flash flooding over the burn scars. It should be noted that
the burn scars have received rainfall, some heavy, yesterday and
earlier today (especially the Hayden and Junkins). NWS BOU has
advised us that 1/2" of rain has occurred in 20 minutes with some of
the showers in their forecast area.

Based on the above, we have decided to go with a flash flood watch
until this evening for the burn scars and Chalk Bluffs region west
of Buena Vista (Mt Princeton region).

For later tonight, we should see decreasing showers over the region
but there is still going to be a chance of showers over the region,
with the best chance over the higher terrain generally south of  US50.

Cool temps are anticipated tonight and we may see some low cigs in
places. Expect lows in the 50s plains; 40s valleys and 30s and 40s
mtns.

Tomorrow...

We likely will not see widespread showers tomorrow morning as we did
early this morning. However another round of showers and
thunderstorms will once again be likely by afternoon, and given the
moist column, locally heavy rain will once again be possible.
Although all areas will have a chance of showers/-tsra tomorrow, the
best chance of precip will be over the higher terrain generally
south of US50. Similar to today, flash flooding will be possible,
especially in flood prone areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...Unseasonably Cool and Unsettled Weather continues into the
middle of next week...

Latest operational and ensemble model guidance continues to indicate
a strong blocking blocking pattern in place across the US, as large
upper level high pressure systems are in place across the Pacific
Northwest and the Eastern Seaboard, with an unseasonably strong
upper trough sandwiched in between across the Northern Great Lakes
through the Rockies and into the Desert Southwest. Ensemble mean
data indicates this pattern persisting through the middle of next
week as the Eastern Seaboard upper high slowly drifts east allowing
for the upper trough to start dig east across the Central Conus and
into the Middle Atlantic States.

With that said, continued cool and unsettled weather will be the
rule across the region through at least Wednesday, with occasional
disturbances digging across the broad upper trough through the
Rockies, leading to good chances of daily showers and embedded
thunderstorms across all of south central and southeast Colorado.
The best timing and coverage will be through the afternoon and
evenings and over and near the higher terrain, though showers and
storms could also occur through the overnight and early morning
hours, depending on timing and location of any one of the
disturbances. While severe storms are not anticipated through this
timeframe, locally heavily rainfall and training of storms will
continue to keep the risk of burn scar flash flooding elevated. As
for high temperatures, well below seasonal readings remain in the
forecast, with highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s across the lower
elevations, and mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain.

By Thursday, the upper high across the Pacific Northwest starts to
build across the Great Basin and Intermountain West, leading
temperatures starting warm back closer to normal levels in the upper
70s to upper 80s across the lower elevations and in the 60s and 70s
across the higher terrain. The position of the upper high may also
open the door to some subtropical moisture in place across the
Mexican Plateau and the potential start of the North American
Monsoon? Time will tell...however, NBM model data indicates a more
diurnal precipitation pattern developing in the Thursday through
Saturday timeframe across the Rockies, which can't be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

A very moist atmosphere over the region will allow for quite a few
showers and -tsra over the region during the next 24 hours. Overall
expect VFR during most, if not all of this fcst period, but we may
see some low cigs prior to and after sunrise, especially at KCOS and
KALS. Winds will be light. Brief heavy rain will be possible with
any rainfall.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ060>062-077.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ072>074-079-
080-087.

&&

UPDATE...SKELLY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
904 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-280315-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
904 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
across the area late into tonight. Currently, showers have
developed near several of the burn scars, including the Decker,
Hayden Pass, Junkins, and Spring burn scar areas. Periods of
locally moderate rainfall will be possible and flash-flooding
conditions will be possible, as all of these areas have already
received some rain today. Conditions will be closely monitored
going forward.

Light snow may be possible overnight into Sunday morning with 1 to 3
inches above 12000 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

On Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
over and near the higher terrain through the late morning and
afternoon, with a few of these storms continuing throughout the
night on Sunday and into Monday morning.

Some light snow accumulations will also be possible across the
higher mountain peaks with storms Sunday.

Cool and unsettled weather will continue into the middle of next
week, with continued chances of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms for areas over and near the higher terrain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible tonight over the Mountains.

GARBEROGLIO/GARBEROGLIO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
756 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

COZ079-080-270315-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
756 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

The Junkins Burn Scar including portions of...

East central Custer County in southeastern Colorado...
West central Pueblo County in southeastern Colorado...

Steady light to moderate rain continues affecting the Junkins Burn
Scar this evening. Rainfall amounts of one-quarter to one-half inch
have occurred since this afternoon, following areas of rain this
morning. This activity will continue to result in the potential for
streams in and around the Junkins Burn Scar to run higher than
normal. While uncertain, there also remains some possibility for
rainfall rates to increase later this evening, and a Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect. Please continue to monitor the latest
information from the National Weather Service in Pueblo.

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
943 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

COZ072-073-077-078-270445-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
943 PM MDT Sat Jun 26 2021

Persistent moderate rain has been falling near and around the Hayden
Pass Burn Scar. Radar indicated storm total rainfall amounts are
near 1/2" just north of the burn scar. No Flash Flood Warning is
needed at this time, but there may be some higher flows around the
scar.

At 941 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northern Hayden Pass Burn Scar, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Hayden Pass Burn Scar, Coaldale and Hillside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 10579 3832 10586 3839 10574 3826 10555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 326DEG 13KT 3832 10576