Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
315 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

Cool, moist and stable air mass covers most of the eastern mountains
and plains today, with mainly light showers and sprinkles along and
east of the mountains. Have see a few tsra develop over the srn
Sangres and along the Raton Mesa where some weak instability is
present, though activity has tended to diminish rather quickly as it
moves north and east into the more stable air. Farther west, San
Luis Valley has mixed and become dry and windy for another day,
while most remaining valleys and mountains along the Continental
Divide have stayed dry, but cooler and cloudier than yesterday as
upper trough slowly deepens over the Central Rockies. For tonight,
most models suggest precip will ramp up late this evening and
overnight as vertical motion increases, with a a wave of showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm lifting northward through the
area. Snow levels fall to 7500 feet by Mon morning, with perhaps a
rain/snow mix down to 6500 feet for a few hours around sunrise. Not
expecting big accumulations, though higher peaks of the Sangres and
Pikes Peak could see 2-4 inches by morning. Stuck fairly close to
NBM pops and temps overnight, with just a few downward nudges in the
pop grid.

On Monday, maybe a brief break in precip from mid morning into early
afternoon, before next wave of precip develops later in the day as
upper trough digs into the Great Basin and upslope flow increases
over the plains. Not much in the way of convective instability, but
maybe just enough lift and modest cape of 100-300 j/kg to produce a
brief rumble of thunder in the afternoon at most locations. Snow
level will rise back toward 9000 feet during the day, limiting
accums to mainly areas above timberline. Given clouds and precip,
NBM max temp guidance looked too warm, and shaved several degf off
highs, especially along the I-25 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

1. Main concern is how much snow, and how low the snow will fall
Monday night...

Guidance, both deterministic and ensemble, continue to indicate a
weather system capable of producing locally heavy precip will move
across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although nearly
all of the forecast area is going to see precip during this above
mentioned  time frame, it appears a band extending from the La Garita
mtns east-northeast to the Pikes Peak region, and then the east
slopes of the southern mtns, will likely see the heaviest precip.
The main concern is how much of this is going to be snow, and how
low in elevation will the accumulating snow will get.

From an impact perspective, this system has the potential to cause
issues as the precip is likely going to be 1.) rather heavy at times,
2.) its going to fall at night, and 3.) temperatures are going to be
quite cold for this time of the year. It appears at this time
warning/impact criteria are likely going to be met across the
La Garitas, a good part of Fremont county, all the Teller county and
N El Paso county. The higher elevations of the Northern Sangres and
Wet mountains may also see warning criteria snow.

If guidance is correct, then N El Paso county may also see heavier
snow and there is likely going to be impacts all all roadways given
the potential for heavier precip and colder ambient temperatures.
However the Monday afternoon commute should be OK.

For now, will go with a winter storm watch for Teller county.
Advisories will likely be needed for most of the rest of the
remainder of the mtns later tonight. It is possible that
impacts/snowfall may justify a warning for N El Paso county if
current guidance pans out. I do expect some accumulating snow to
fall in Colorado Springs proper.

By later Tuesday morning, the brunt of the precip should be east of
the I-25 corridor, with the heaviest precip (primarily rain)
occurring across the northeast sections of the southeast Colorado
plains.

Overall, most of the region should see beneficial precip with this
event, with amounts ranging from 0.25-0.75" An inch or more cant be
ruled out over the northeast sections of the southeast Colorado
plains. the least amount of precip will fall over the San Luis
Valley and the San Juans.

Unsettled weather will continue over the region later Tuesday and
Wednesday as a trailing trough moves across the region bringing a
chance of showers to the region.

From Thursday onward into early next week, with will be primarily
dry with just isolated afternoon storms possible. \/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

At KCOS, MVFR cigs with VCSH into the evening, then cigs become IFR
by late evening with periods of rain overnight into Monday. Rain may
mix with snow after 05z until around 15z, with perhaps a lull in
precip around midday. Steadier rain develops in the afternoon, with
a rain/snow mix again likely Mon night.

At KPUB, MVFR cigs with VCSH this evening, though a few periods of
VFR possible between showers. Cigs become IFR overnight into Monday,
with periods of rain expected.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs with strong sw winds gusting to 35 kts
into the evening before diminishing after 02z. Gradually lowering
VFR cigs overnight and Monday, with a vcsh possible after 08z. SW
winds will again pick up Mon afternoon, as some gusts of 25-30 kts
look possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for COZ081-082.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ058>089-093>099-101745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1133 AM MDT Sun May 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Red Flag conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across
the San Luis Valley due to gusty winds near 40 mph and humidity
values around 10 percent.

There is marginal risk this afternoon of one or two strong to
severe thunderstorms from the Raton Mesa eastward along the New
Mexico border. The main risk with these storms will be cloud to
ground lightning, hail to one inch in diameter and gusty winds in
excess of 50 mph.

Snow will be possible above 6500 feet tonight.  Accumulations,
primarily over the Eastern Mountains, will range from 1 to 4 inches.
Areas over the Palmer Divide may see up to an inch on grassy or
elevated surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

A few waves of rain, snow, and some embedded thunderstorms will
impact much of southern and southeastern Colorado Monday and
Tuesday. Snowfall totals through Tuesday night will range from 4
to 8 inches across the Sawatch and Mosquito ranges and southeast
mountains above 8000 feet, with locally up to 12 or more across
Pikes Peak and the Wet mountains above 10000 feet. Snow levels
will drop to around 7000 feet Sunday night and down to 6000 feet
on Monday night across the Pikes Peak region with around 1 to 5
inches of snow possible through the period. This will mainly
impact grassy surfaces, with roads remaining wet or slushy at
times across the lower elevations.

Precipitation will decrease from west to east on Tuesday with
drier and warmer weather returning for late week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon near the Raton Mesa and along the New
Mexico border, and tonight over the Mountains.

10/55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1249 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ074-088-094-091930-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1249 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 1248 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Sugarite Canyon State Park, or 13 miles southeast
of Trinidad, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson and Trinchera.

LAT...LON 3713 10441 3719 10381 3700 10380 3699 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 268DEG 25KT 3705 10432

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
138 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ074-088-092030-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
138 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 138 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raton Pass, or 8 miles southeast of Trinidad, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3711 10453 3724 10414 3700 10410 3700 10451
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 257DEG 22KT 3707 10444

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
219 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ074-088-092100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
219 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 219 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raton Pass, or 10 miles northwest of Raton, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raton Pass.

LAT...LON 3707 10466 3722 10416 3700 10409 3699 10463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 252DEG 27KT 3701 10454

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
411 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ074-088-094-092245-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
411 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 411 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sugarite Canyon State Park, or 12 miles northeast of Raton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinchera.

LAT...LON 3707 10446 3731 10410 3700 10393 3699 10397
      3699 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 252DEG 24KT 3704 10434

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

COZ074-088-094-092330-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
453 PM MDT Sun May 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 453 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sugarite Canyon State Park, or 12 miles northeast of Raton, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Branson and Trinchera.

LAT...LON 3705 10442 3726 10401 3700 10382 3699 10440
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 245DEG 29KT 3702 10428