Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
101 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

.UPDATE...

Aviation discussion update.

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will continue to move through the Southwest
today. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue this
morning, then gradually end from west to east this afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon, capable of producing strong, damaging winds, large
hail, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Some blowing dust will
also be possible. Dry weather returns tomorrow and Thursday with
near normal temperatures. A low end rain chance is possible with
another passing system Friday and Saturday with slightly cooler
temperatures. A quiet weekend with typical temperatures is expect,
with the potential for a dry but notably cooler and winder
weather system next week.

&&

DISCUSSION...
A compact upper level low is moving east near the
California-Mexico border. East of this low, warm and moist air
continues to stream northward into the forecast area, leading to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. So far, the relatively dry
and cool boundary layer has only allowed for elevated convection.
Rainfall and wind have both been limited, but we have received
several reports of small hail. As we progress into the afternoon,
several factors will come together for a potentially significant
severe weather event by Arizona standards.

Visible satellite imagery continues to show mostly clear
conditions south of Phoenix, with a mixture of clouds and sun over
the metro area. Overall, this is allowing for good low level
heating. The 18z PSR sounding and ACARS data confirm this to be
the case, with a gradually warming boundary layer. Model
forecasts show that this should allow for surface temperatures to
warm enough to overcome any convective inhibition by this
afternoon. As convection becomes increasingly tied to the surface
layer, it will dip into the strong low level directional shear
present today. Meanwhile, as the upper level low advances towards
the area (along with a corresponding jet streak) upper level wind
speeds will increase along with diffluence aloft. This will result
in effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts continuing into the
early evening. In addition to the favorable wind shear, upper
level temperatures will cool significantly with 500 mb
temperatures dropping to -15 to -16C or so. Very steep lapse rates
into the mid levels will allow for a favorable hail growth zone
to develop. CAPE values of 1500-2000 J are anticipated by the mid
afternoon. Lastly, PWAT values will remain in the 1-1.2" range,
which is easily sufficient for convective development.

Taken together, the environment will be well primed for supercells
to develop this afternoon with large hail (potentially up to 2"
or so) and high wind gusts (potentially up to 65 kts or so). The
strong low level shear may also allow for an isolated tornado or
two. the most favored location for tornadic development is likely
north of the Phoenix metro. The SPC has issued a severe
thunderstorm watch through 03Z this evening to account for these
threats.

The risk for flash flooding appears to be much less than the risk
for severe weather due to fast storm motions. Even so, as stronger
thunderstorms develop this afternoon, the potential for locally
heavy rain will increase. Accordingly, an isolated flash flood
warning cannot be ruled out today, especially over the burn scars.

The HREF has handled the strongly forced convective pattern quite
well to this point. It indicates that scattered showers and
storms will continue throughout the day, but that the strong to
severe storms are likely to develop roughly along a line from west
of Phoenix up through the Prescott area around 1-4 pm this
afternoon. These storms will then likely traverse through the area
between 3-7 pm. The threat of precipitation in the PSR forecast
area will quickly wind down after that. As always, the exact
locations which will see severe weather is never known for sure
ahead of time and conditions can change quickly. Today would be a
good day to check back frequently for forecast updates.

After today's active weather, the next few days will be quiet with
highs near 90 under partly sunny skies. Global ensembles indicate
that another system will graze the area Friday night into
Saturday. The chance of precipitation is quite low, with NBM
showing less than a 10% chance of measurable precipitation.
Temperatures will likely cool off though, with highs in the mid
80s over the weekend. An even stronger storm system (also likely
dry) will affect the area next week. Details are limited at this
range, but there is excellent agreement that temperatures will
cool dramatically. The NBM only shows a 55% chance of exceeding
72F next Wednesday in Phoenix. Should this occur, morning lows
would fall into the 40s and 50s for the first time since last
spring.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2001Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Showers and TS are now filling in across the Phoenix area at this
hour. Included tempo TS in TAFs given scattered nature of embedded
convection and modest ceiling reductions, but not winds at this time
as the thunderstorms are not particularly strong. Stronger
thunderstorms will be possible across the Phoenix area later this
afternoon as the airmass  becomes more unstable. Any storms at
develop will be fairly progressive and not linger for long. However,
there is the potential for severe storms, with risk of very strong
winds, large hail, and even a very remote chance of a tornado. At
this point, with go with periods of TEMPO -TSRA in the TAfs for now.
Clouds will quickly clear behind the storms this evening. Winds will
show atypical patterns through the day, with easterly flow being the
predominate direction through tonight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Scattered showers will continue for the next few hours across the
region, with an area of thunderstorms currently in the Imperial
Valley gradually moving to the northeast. Gusty winds will be
possible with the thunderstorms along with MVFR conditions (due to
rain, some blowing dust, and/or reduced ceilings). Quickly improving
weather this afternoon as the storms move to the east. Winds will
show atypical patterns through the morning and afternoon, with
preferred drainage directions taking hold later this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
One weather system will move through the region Thursday and
Friday, bringing low end rain chances and a slight uptick in
afternoon humidity. Slightly cooler and drier weather arrives
Saturday, but warmer and drier weather is expected Sunday and
Monday. Overnight humidity values will generally be trending down
through the entire period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Hodges
AVIATION...Percha/Iniguez
FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
209 PM MST TUE OCT 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             3 W EAST MESA           33.42N 111.74W
10/05/2021  E0.88 INCH       MARICOPA           AZ   PUBLIC

            ***DELAYED REPORT*** IMAGES ON SOCIAL MEDIA
            SHOWED ACCUMULATING HAIL ESTIMATED UP TO
            NICKEL SIZE NEAR MAIN ST AND GREENFIELD RD
            IN MESA.

&&

INS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
228 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

AZZ534-052145-
Aguila Valley AZ-
228 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Maricopa County
through 245 PM MST...

At 228 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wickenburg, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wickenburg.

This includes US Highway 60 between mile markers 102 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MST for
south central Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 11272 3396 11258 3385 11267 3398 11295
      3400 11294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 196DEG 21KT 3397 11275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
245 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

AZZ556-558-562-563-052230-
Southeast Gila County AZ-Tonto Basin AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
245 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila County through
330 PM MST...

At 245 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Tonto National Monument, or 17 miles east of Roosevelt,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MST for
east central Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 11065 3350 11082 3364 11102 3370 11096
      3364 11092 3368 11084 3366 11078 3381 11066
      3385 11056 3382 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 222DEG 33KT 3368 11083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
302 PM MST TUE OCT 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNE TORTILLA FLAT     33.59N 111.34W
10/05/2021  M73 MPH          MARICOPA           AZ   MESONET

            ***SLIGHTLY DELAYED REPORT***MESONET STATION
            SRP45 5.3 NE TORTILLA FLAT (SRP).

&&

JS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 PM MST TUE OCT 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE ROOSEVELT         33.64N 111.12W
10/05/2021  M63 MPH          GILA               AZ   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AU919 2 SSE ROOSEVELT.

&&

JS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
313 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

AZZ558-562-563-052245-
Southeast Gila County AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
313 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Gila County through
345 PM MST...

At 313 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Claypool, or 8 miles north of Globe, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County.

This includes the following highways...
US Highway 60 between mile markers 255 and 277.
AZ Route 188 between mile markers 217 and 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MST for
east central Arizona.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 11073 3346 11092 3366 11089 3368 11083
      3366 11078 3370 11073 3364 11057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 192DEG 21KT 3351 11081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SDB