Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Phoenix, AZ

400 
WGUS85 KPSR 232056
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
156 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-240030-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
156 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR GILA COUNTY...

At 156 PM MST, local law enforcement reported all road crossings 
across Tonto Creek had been closed.  The creek remains 3 foot above 
Action Stage.  Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

MS

151 
WGUS45 KPSR 232349
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
449 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-240230-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
449 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 730 PM MST.

* At 449 PM MST, Flooding is ongoing and the Tonto Creek gauge 
  indicates water level is over 7 feet.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

Runoff will continue and additional rainfall is possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

056 
WGUS45 KPSR 240121
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
621 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-240430-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
621 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 930 PM MST.

* At 621 PM MST, Flooding is ongoing through Tonto Creek. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

654 
WGUS45 KPSR 240303
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
803 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-240630-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
803 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 1130 PM MST.

* At 803 PM MST, Gauge reports runoff continues into Tonto Creek. 
  Flooding is already occurring in the warned area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

385 
WGUS45 KPSR 240435
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
935 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-240830-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
935 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 130 AM MST.

* At 935 PM MST, Gauge reports runoff continues into Tonto Creek. 
  Flooding is already occurring in the warned area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

980 
WGUS45 KPSR 240523
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1023 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-241030-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1023 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 330 AM MST.

* At 1023 PM MST, Gauges indicate rising water levels in the Tonto 
  Creek.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

308 
WGUS45 KPSR 240557
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1057 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-241230-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1057 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 530 AM MST Saturday.

* At 1057 PM MST, Latest observation at 10 PM July 23rd indicated 
  flood stage was at 6.5 feet on the Tonto Creek. Flooding is 
  already occurring in the warned area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

218 
WGUS45 KPSR 240655
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1155 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

AZC007-241430-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1155 PM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 730 AM MST Saturday.

* At 1155 PM MST, Latest observation at 1130 PM July 23rd indicated 
  flood stage was at 6.3 feet on the Tonto Creek. Flooding is 
  already occurring in the warned area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AD

532 
WGUS45 KPSR 241205
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
505 AM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

AZC007-241630-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210724T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
505 AM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 930 AM MST.

* At 505 AM MST, Flooding is already occurring on Tonto Creek.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

18

642 
WGUS45 KPSR 241609
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
909 AM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

AZC007-261100-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
909 AM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 400 AM MST Monday.

* At 909 AM MST, The latest observation at 830 AM July 24th showed 
  ongoing flooding on Tonto Creek with the flood stage currently at 
  4.9 feet. Water levels may briefly fall below action stage today 
  but additional rises are expected with additional rainfall.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

INS

756 
WGUS85 KPSR 250525
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1025 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

AZC007-261100-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1025 PM MST Sat Jul 24 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST MONDAY FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

At 1025 PM MST, gauge reports indicated runoff.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

Rogers

262 
WGUS85 KPSR 250958
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
258 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZC007-261100-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
258 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST MONDAY FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

At 258 AM MST, July 25th the latest observation showed ongoing 
flooding on Tonto Creek with the flood stage currently at 7.1 feet. 
Water levels are forecast to gradually lower over the next few days, 
but any additional rainfall may cause brief further rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

CK

028 
WGUS85 KPSR 251737
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1037 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZC007-261100-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1037 AM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST MONDAY FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

At 1037 AM MST, July 25th the latest observation at 10:00 AM MST 
showed ongoing flooding on Tonto Creek with the flood stage 
currently at 8.75 feet. Water levels are forecast to gradually lower 
over the next few days, but any additional rainfall may cause brief 
further rises.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

SDB

861 
WGUS85 KPSR 252238
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
338 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZC007-261100-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
338 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM MST MONDAY FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

At 338 PM MST, gauge reports along Tonto Creek continue to show high 
flow levels making unbridged crossings impassable.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AJ

268 
WGUS45 KPSR 260105
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
605 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

AZC007-261900-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210726T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
605 PM MST Sun Jul 25 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until noon MST Monday.

* At 605 PM MST, gauge reports along Tonto Creek continue to show 
  high
  flow levels making unbridged crossings impassable. Flooding is 
  expected to continue through Monday morning.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

AJ

887 
WGUS45 KPSR 261117
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
417 AM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

AZC007-271000-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210727T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
417 AM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 300 AM MST Tuesday.

* At 417 AM MST, gauge reports along Tonto Creek continue to show 
  high flow levels making unbridged crossings impassable. Flooding 
  is expected to continue through Monday night.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

CK

880 
WGUS85 KPSR 270441
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
941 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

AZC007-271000-
/O.CON.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210727T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
941 PM MST Mon Jul 26 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MST TUESDAY FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

At 941 PM MST, gauge reports along Tonto Creek continue to show high 
flow levels making unbridged crossings impassable. Flooding is 
expected to continue into early Tuesday morning.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

INS

008 
WGUS45 KPSR 270838
FLWPSR

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
138 AM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

AZC007-280300-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
138 AM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 800 PM MST Tuesday.

* At 138 AM MST, gauge reports along Tonto Creek continue to show 
  high flow levels making unbridged crossings impassable. Flooding 
  is expected to continue through this afternoon.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tonto Basin and Punkin Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

18

501 
WGUS85 KPSR 280258
FLSPSR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
758 PM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

AZC007-280308-
/O.EXP.KPSR.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210728T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
758 PM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

...FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR GILA 
COUNTY...

Water levels are slowly decreasing in the Tonto Creek. Recent 
observations show it has now fallen below action stage. However, 
elevated flows will continue for several days. Those with interests 
along Tonto Creek should continue to exercise caution. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3391 11129 3383 11125 3377 11125 3377 11126
      3377 11128 3381 11132 3387 11136 3394 11134
      3393 11133

$$

Iniguez

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
430 AM MST Fri Jul 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will continue to drift slowly towards the Desert
Southwest over the next few days. With abundant Monsoon moisture in
place, thunderstorms will be likely, particularly across portions of
Arizona. The strongest storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall and areas of flash flooding. Temperatures will also be well
below normal through early next week. Warmer and drier conditions
are anticipated next week as the low pressure system lifts northward
into the Great Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall did materialize across central Arizona last evening,
particularly across portions of the East Valley, north Phoenix,
Scottsdale and the higher terrain of Maricopa and Gila Counties.
This precipitation was largely forced by a well-defined area of
upper level divergence between the slow-moving closed low centered
across southeastern New Mexico and the Monsoon High near Las Vegas.

Roughly 60 percent of the Phoenix Metro area received measurable
rainfall. A few FCDMC gauges even recorded as much as 2+ inches in
downtown Scottsdale, which fell in a short period of time. Some
flood prone areas in north Phoenix also reported significant flash
flooding.

All of the ingredients are in place for continued periods of heavy
rainfall through at least Saturday. After a brief lull, scattered
storms have redeveloped across the Valley early this morning, most
likely due to additional lift provided by a rapidly propagating
gravity wave which originated in northeastern Arizona. The MCS
across central Arizona has become reinvigorated and areas of light
to moderate rainfall will continue into the early morning. On the
mesoscale, there is also likely an embedded MCV, which will promote
lingering precipitation past daybreak for some areas.

The evolution of storms for today has become a bit clearer, given
the stronger model consensus in the HREF. Forecast generally
follows this guidance which suggests precipitation will gradually
dissipate later this morning. Another round of storms is then
anticipated as early as late morning across Gila County. Convective
initiation across the lower deserts is more likely during the mid-
late afternoon as the cap erodes.

Models indicate forcing for ascent is mostly due to vorticity on
the synoptic scale, which is exceptionally rare this time of year.
Latest mesoanalysis confirms the presence of an anomalously strong
vort max across eastern Arizona. As the aforementioned closed low
weakens and opens up, additional vorticity advection is likely
across Arizona. Any CAPE that develops this afternoon is merely a
bonus. Given the larger scale forcing, it is prudent to rely heavily
on the HRRR, which tends to be more skillful than other models in
scenarios like this. This then points to the heavy rainfall
occurring in rounds: one early this morning, another this afternoon
and evening perhaps a bit further west, and then potentially another
round of heavy rainfall overnight. With several opportunities for
precipitation, the daily record precipitation of 0.41 inches in
Phoenix is in jeopardy of being broken.

With PWATs approaching daily records, rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour are expected. Isolated totals (through tonight) as
much as 2 to 4 inches are not out of the question. Rainfall amounts
of these magnitudes have the potential to result in very dangerous
flash flooding, particularly in urban areas, normally dry washes and
even along mainstem rivers such as the Agua Fria, Hassayampa and
Tonto Creek. A high risk of flash flooding and debris flow also
persists across the burn scars north and east of Phoenix.

Temperatures across the Valley are currently in the 70s and 80s,
reflecting the influence of the rain-cooled air. With abundant
cloudiness anticipated today, temperatures will struggle to reach
the 90s. NBM forecast was reasonable overall, but made a manual
adjustment downward from the NBM max temps, given the lack of
insolation and signals in the hourly data.

Model consensus regarding the low pressure system indicates a trend
towards slower westerly motion, which will prolong the threat of
heavy rainfall through Saturday and into Sunday. Consequently, PoPs
were increased considerably for the weekend. Ensembles remain in
good agreement warmer and drier conditions will return to the Desert
Southwest by Tuesday as the low pressure system gets pulled rapidly
northward into the Great Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1130Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Another brief round of SHRA/embedded TSRA is likely early this
morning before a presumed break in more active weather takes place
into the afternoon. Although NBM POPs have a 60% chance of storms
during midday, have cut off SHRA/TSRA after mid/late morning. Given
the early morning storms, confidence is lower that storms will
readily redevelop and move into the metro late afternoon/early
evening. Kept SHRA/TS mention valid, however refined and cut timing
of more impactful weather with the potential the more robust storms
move west of the metro.

Assuming scattered storms pass through the Phoenix area this
evening, another late evening break is possible before the next
round of SHRA/TS approach the area. HREF members show a near repeat
of numerous overnight storms, and NBM POPs peak around 70%. Timing
might be more uncertain, but anytime after midnight could see TSRA
with heavy rain and brief IFR conditions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Southerly winds will be most common at KBLH while SE winds prevail at
KIPl through Saturday morning. There is the potential for Baja
storms to push an outflow boundary through KIPL again this
afternoon, however probabilities are too low to include in this TAF
package. Otherwise, periods of thicker mid/high clouds will
occasionally spread over terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday:
After a very wet period, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
continue Sunday into next week with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Storm activity is anticipated to spread as far west as
southeast California, especially on Sunday and Monday with most
storms having good potential for wetting rain (0.10" or more).
Tuesday will see gradual drying conditions, but enough moisture will
linger for continued daily thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and
Thursday, especially across the higher terrain. Apart from
thunderstorms, winds will favor familiar diurnal patterns.

Min RH levels are expected to be in the 30-45% range across south-
central Arizona (45-60% higher terrain of south-central AZ) and 25-
35% across southeast California and southwest Arizona through
Monday. Max RH levels, outside of storms, will be 55-70% most places
(60-90% higher terrain of south-central AZ). Values will fall into a
more typical range for the summer by Tuesday, with min RH readings
ranging from 15-20 percent in southeast California to 20-35% in
south-central Arizona.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for AZZ534-537>563.
CA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Rogers/Kuhlman

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
725 AM MST FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WICKENBURG              33.97N 112.73W
07/21/2021                   MARICOPA           AZ   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DELAYED REPORT. POWDER HOUSE WASH FLOODED
            THE INTERSECTION OF JACK BURDEN RD. AND
            CONSTELLATION RD REQUIRING SAND AND DEBRIS
            REMOVAL THE NEXT DAY BY PUBLIC WORKS. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON UPSTREAM GAUGE.

&&

AJ