River Flood Warning 8, NWS Portland, OR

762 
WGUS86 KPQR 122034
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1234 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Oregon...

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Naselle River near Naselle affecting Pacific and Wahkiakum 
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening by 630 PM PST.

&&


WAC049-069-122145-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210112T2034Z/
/NASW1.1.ER.210112T1739Z.210112T1800Z.210112T1823Z.NO/
1234 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Naselle River near Naselle has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Naselle River near Naselle.
* At 11:30 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...This river crested below flood stage and will continue 
  to drop through the day.


&&

LAT...LON 4636 12382 4638 12382 4638 12375 4637 12373
      4636 12375

$$

ORC057-130245-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-210114T0146Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.210112T1504Z.210113T0000Z.210113T1946Z.UU/
1234 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 11:30 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is expected to crest around 15.5 feet late 
  this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 15.5 feet, expect widespread flooding in the north 
  part of Tillamook along Hwy 101 to the vicinity of the Tillamook 
  Cheese Factory, especially Some buildings in low areas near the 
  river are threatened with flooding above this level.during high 
  tides. The most noticable flood impacts are to low-lying roads and 
  some buildings near Dougherty Slough and the lower Wilson River. 
  Widespread flooding of low lying dairy and pasture land and some 
  rural access roads outside of Tillamook can be expected as well.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC069-130245-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-210114T0006Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210112T1131Z.210112T1800Z.210113T1806Z.UU/
1234 PM PST Tue Jan 12 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 11:15 AM PST Tuesday the stage was 15.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested this morning at 15.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 15.0 feet, expect flooding of lowland areas and 
  roads in the vicinity of Hwy 4 and Rosburg. Numerous road closures 
  are likely.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

42

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 420 AM
PST Tue Jan 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A quasi stationary front is expected to produce periods
of moderate to heavy rain through Wednesday for the potential for
river, rural, and urban flooding. Strong winds are expected along
the coast today and tonight, with breezy conditions for the
Willamette Valley this evening. Large surf and high tides will
result in hazardous conditions for the beaches and low-lying coastal
areas through Wednesday. Dry weather on Thursday will allow rivers
to recede before the next weaker front that is expected Thursday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Rain with periods of breezy
winds are the main weather concerns today through Wednesday coupled
with high surf and minor tidal overflow flooding. A quasi-stationary
front fueled by an atmospheric river of moisture will continue
producing moderate to heavy rain across the region through early
Wednesday morning. Lows moving along the front will result in
periods of stronger winds and enhanced orographic rain. The first
low is occurring early this morning when wind gusts of 45-55 mph
have been observed. Rain was enhanced with this low with the focus
of heaviest rain early this morning is over extreme SW Washington
and NW Oregon.
Rain gages have reported 6 hour rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2
inches across the higher terrain, and at least one station in the
Willapa Hills (WA) reported a half of an inch of rain between 1 and
2 AM. The front is making its way inland this morning and expect
this heavy rain to extend inland to the Cascades and further South
into Oregon this morning through this afternoon.

The next low will produce even stronger winds tonight into early
Wednesday, and have more of a southern focus for the winds and heavy
rain. A high wind warning has been issued for the coast from mid
morning today through midnight tonight to account for the periods of
expected strong winds. There will be a period of gusty winds inland
this afternoon and evening with gusts of 40-45 mph possible for the
Willamette Valley. Models are in good consensus on the front moving
inland Wednesday with rain rapidly ending in its wake Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Forecast rainfall totals from this morning
through Wednesday morning are 3 to 7 inches across the higher
terrain and 1 to 2 inches for the interior lowlands. See the
HYDROLOGY discussion below for hydrologic concerns related to this
atmospheric river event.

Beach hazards will continue through Wednesday, with a combination of
tidal overflow and sneaker wave potential Tuesday and Wednesday, and
a bonus high surf on Tuesday. The forecast total high tide at Toke
Point is 12 feet Tuesday afternoon, and 11 feet Wednesday afternoon.
Higher river levels may contribute to minor coastal flooding around
these high tides.

Colder air will fill in behind the front on Wednesday with snow
levels lowering to around 3000 feet. There is a rapid decrease in
moisture flux when the snow levels lower, and do not expect much
snow production. Wednesday night will be relatively cooler with
minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Patchy valley fog is
likely late Wednesday night as high pressure builds over the area
and skies start to clear. The high pressure will result in dry
weather Wednesday night and Thursday. East winds will develop early
Thursday morning and increase in the afternoon as the next front
approaches. A Dalles to Troutdale pressure gradient of 5 to 7 mph
could produce 25 to 25 mph winds through the Columbia Gorge and east
Portland metro area.  ~TJ

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...Another front is
expected to move onshore Thursday evening. Precipitable water values
are expected to be around an inch with this front, and models are
forecasting IVT between 250 and 500 kg/ms indicating the possibility
for a weak atmospheric river. The jet dynamics are weaker with this
front, and do not anticipate high rainfall production regardless of
the available moisture. The front should move through the area
rather quickly and over by Friday afternoon with rainfall totals
likely remaining below an inch even across the terrain favored
areas. Snow levels will be at or above 5000 feet and do not
anticipate much if any snow from this front. High pressure rebuilds
Friday night and Saturday for a brief period of dry weather. in the
wake of this front. Models are in good agreement on another non
impressive front Saturday night through Sunday followed by dry
weather next Monday.
~TJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Mainstem rivers along the SW Washington and NW Oregon
coasts are rising this morning in response to the heavy rain
overnight. The only river at this point forecast to rise above flood
stage is the Grays River at Rosburg, in which a Flood Warning has
been issued for. Other coastal rivers are currently forecast to rise
above baneful, but just shy of flood stage including the Willapa
River at Willapa, the Naselle River, the Wilson River at Tillamook,
the Nehalem River at Foss, The Siletz river at Siletz, and the
Siuslaw River at Mapleton. The inland rivers will likely see rises
later today as the heavy rain expands across the area, and expect
there will be more flood warnings issued later today.

Besides Mainstem rivers, Small streams and creeks will also rise, and
possibly flood today, and minor urban flooding in poorly drained
areas are possible. Will continue the Flood Watch for the same areas
to account for all of the flooding concerns. The saturated soils will
also likely need to land slides. ~TJ

&&

.AVIATION...An atmospheric river will bring periods of
rain and a mix of primarily IFR and MVFR conditions along the
coast and MVFR and VFR conditions inland. As southerly to easterly
winds temporarily weaken later today, brief IFR conditions are
not out of the question inland. Nonetheless, southerly winds
should strengthen this evening and result in conditions trending
back towards a mix of MVFR and VFR thresholds. There will likely
be a short lived period of IFR to MVFR conditions and gusty
winds just ahead and along a cold front that appears poised to
impact most terminals between 03-09z Wednesday. Expect
precipitation to turn more showery and conditions to trend
primarily VFR after frontal passage.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to:
http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...An atmospheric river will bring periods of
rain and a mix of primarily MVFR and VFR conditions. As easterly
winds weaken later today, IFR conditions are not out of the
question with the continuing rain. Nonetheless, southerly winds
should take hold and result in conditions trending back towards a
mix of MVFR and VFR thresholds. There will likely be a short
lived period of IFR to MVFR conditions and gusty winds just ahead
and along a cold front that appears poised to impact the terminal
between 05-07z Wednesday. Expect precipitation to turn more
showery and conditions to trend primarily VFR after frontal
passage. /Neuman

&&

.MARINE...A front will slowly shift southeastward towards the
region today into tonight. Weak waves riding along this front
will temporarily enhance and decrease winds periodically across
the waters through this evening. A coastal jet will likely
enhance winds within 10-20 NM of the coast by at least 5-10 kt
when compared to winds farther offshore during this time. A
period of storm force wind gusts are ongoing early this morning,
but should temporarily decrease later this morning. There may be
another spike in the winds around midday to early this afternoon
before yet another lull in the winds occurs. However, there are
some suggestions that a final push of winds, potentially the
strongest of the bunch, will occur across the central waters of
Oregon and potentially all the way up to the Columbia River near
the coast. As a result, opted to just extend the Storm Warning
early this morning through this evening to cover this potential
hazard. Otherwise, expect seas to generally be in the 20-25 ft
range through tonight as a longer period westerly swell and wind
waves/fresh swell keep seas elevated.

High pressure will then begin to shift across the waters
Wednesday and Thursday and allow seas to subside below 10 ft late
Wednesday night or Thursday. However, the next front appears
poised to impact the waters Thursday night or early Friday with a
round of Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts. This should
result in seas climbing back into the teens Friday into next
weekend. An even weaker front will be possible over the weekend
before high pressure shifts more squarely over the region early
next week.  /Neuman

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Cascade Foothills in
     Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of
     Western Oregon-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Oregon
     Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest
     Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-North
     Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern
     Oregon Cascades-South Willamette Valley-Western Columbia
     River Gorge.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Central
     Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM PST Wednesday
     for Central Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight PST
     tonight for North Oregon Coast.

WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Central Columbia
     River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
     County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington
     Cascades-South Washington Coast-Western Columbia River
     Gorge-Willapa Hills.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for South
     Washington Coast.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for South
     Washington Coast.

PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Waters from Cape
     Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.

     Storm Warning until midnight PST tonight for Coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM-
     coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia
     River Bar.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
258 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE HEBO              45.21N 123.75W
01/12/2021  M63 MPH          YAMHILL            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AR658 MT. HEBO.

0238 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE OTTER ROCK         44.76N 124.05W
01/12/2021  M82 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AR160 CAPE FOULWEATHER.

0217 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LINCOLN BEACH       44.86N 124.04W
01/12/2021  M60 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV088 DEPOE BAY.

0158 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE YACHATS            44.29N 124.08W
01/12/2021  M88 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV549 CAPE PERPETUA.

0147 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT                 44.62N 124.06W
01/12/2021  M65 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION ODT38 YAQUINA BAY BRIDGE.

0145 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S CASCADE HEAD        45.01N 124.01W
01/12/2021  M57 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW0047 ROADS END.

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW SOUTH BEACH       44.61N 124.07W
01/12/2021  M59 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NWPO3 SOUTH BEACH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
302 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW YACHATS            44.32N 124.11W
01/12/2021  M67 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW1135 YACHATS - 0.2 NNW
            CWOP.

&&

CN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
306 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT            46.22N 124.00W
01/12/2021  M61 MPH          CLATSOP            OR   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

CNEUMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
307 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT     46.27N 124.08W
01/12/2021  M66 MPH          PACIFIC            WA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

CNEUMAN