River Flood Warning 36, NWS Portland, OR

956 
WGUS86 KPQR 112216
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
216 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

For the Nw Oregon / Sw Washington Coast...including Rosburg...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 200 AM PST.

&&


WAC069-121045-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-211212T1033Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211211T1520Z.211211T1615Z.211212T0432Z.UU/
216 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Grays River near Rosburg.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The river crested near 14.1 feet late Saturday morning. The
    river is near 13.5 feet as of Saturday afternoon and the
    river will continue to subside through tonight.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

Neuman

115 
WGUS86 KPQR 120532
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
932 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

WAC069-120645-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-211212T0532Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211211T1520Z.211211T1900Z.211212T0207Z.UU/
932 PM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning has ended for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM PST Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river crested at 12.7 earlier this afternoon.
    As of 930 PM the river is below flood stage and will recede
    over night.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

01

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
1009 AM PST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A strong front will move through the region today
accompanied by strong southerly winds, rain, and heavy snow in
the Cascades. Cool and wet weather continues from Sunday into
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Early morning surface
analysis places a strong cold front approximately 100 miles
offshore of the north Oregon Coast. In the upper levels, broad
onshore flow is present across the region ahead of a deepening
trough descending southward from the Gulf of Alaska.
Precipitation is spreading across the region from NW to SE ahead
of the front, along with strong southerly winds. The coastal
High Wind Warning and Willamette Valley Wind Advisory both
appear to be on track, with gusts of 50-60 mph observed so far
along the coast and 35-40 mph gusts in the Salem area overnight.
Expect winds to peak later this morning and then start to
diminish between roughly 10 AM and noon as the front starts to
move inland. Rain amounts remain in line with previous
forecasts, with around 2 inches expected at the coast and as
much as 3 inches in parts of the Coast Range. Meanwhile, valley
locations could see as much as 1.5 inches of rain through early
Sunday morning. This will certainly result in some rises on
local rivers, but we are still not expecting widespread hydro
concerns at this time. Will continue to closely monitor some of
the more responsive river basins over the weekend. Turning to
winter weather, heavy snow remains on track for the Cascades
today through Sunday morning. Opted to start the Winter Storm
Warning a few hours early for the Oregon Cascades as snow is
already well underway and will only intensify through the
morning hours as upslope flow increases and better forcing
arrives in the upper levels. Snow levels are initially fairly
high and will rise somewhat through the first part of the day as
a warm nose moves through ahead of the front. This will send
snow levels above 4000 feet in the Coast Range and serve to
mitigate any winter weather concerns there. Snow levels in the
Cascades will mostly be in the 3000-3500 ft range today before
eventually coming down to 2000-2500 ft overnight and as low as
1500 ft by Sunday morning. Expect storm total accumulations of
1-2 feet above 3000 ft including the passes, with anywhere from
8-15 inches at lower elevations as snow levels come down
tonight. Additionally, the combination of increased forcing and
modest instability could be enough for another round of low
topped thunderstorms near the coast later today through much of
the day Sunday as the upper trough remains offshore.

Precipitation will transition to a more showery regime on Sunday
as upper level troughing arrives over the region in the wake of
the front, with snow levels generally hovering around 2000 feet
and possibly a bit lower as 850 mb temps fall to around -5 C.
This could bring some snow to the higher points in the Coast
Range, but winter weather concerns will continue to be tempered
by relatively light QPF amounts.

Cool and showery weather remains in the forecast through Monday
as the main trough axis remains offshore and digs southward
along the CA coast. There are still some indications of a
secondary surface low spinning up and tracking north through the
coastal waters, although models are struggling to capture this
feature. Generally speaking, this could result in another period
of enhanced rainfall and locally windier conditions along the
coast on Monday. /CB

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Not much change in
thinking for the extended as a generally cool and wet pattern
persists through much of next week. WPC 500 mb cluster
analysis, along with the majority of models and their ensembles,
show upper level troughing persisting over the Pacific
Northwest through Thursday. At the surface weak low pressure and
onshore flow will likely maintain a showery weather pattern.
Ensemble and NBM guidance suggest Wednesday could be the wettest
day in the long term period, but not expecting any strong
fronts to impact the region at this time. Snow levels will
generally hover around 1000 ft through Tuesday night as the
colder air filters into the region. Also expect chilly mornings
with temperatures falling to near freezing Tue and Wed mornings.
NBM guidance along with some ensemble members show around a 30%
chance of a trace amount of snow in the lowlands, but do not
expect any accumulation. Toward the end of the week models are
split between continued troughing or weak ridging over the
region, but a period of drier weather appears possible late
Thursday into Friday. CB/DH

&&

.AVIATION...18z TAFs: Strong winds and moderate rain will
continue to shift across the area this morning as a cold front
slides southeastward across the Pacific Northwest. This will
bring primarily a mixture of MVFR and IFR conditions along the
coast and VFR conditions and occasional and spotty MVFR
conditions for inland taf sites. Expect all sites to transition
to predominantly VFR conditions behind the cold front. Low to mid
level cold air advection should keep the lower atmosphere fairly
well mixed and only allow sites to briefly dip into MVFR
thresholds overnight and into Sunday.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Strong winds and moderate rain will
continue to shift across the area this morning as a cold front
slides southeastward across the Pacific Northwest. This will
bring primarily VFR conditions with occasional and spotty MVFR
conditions. Low to mid level cold air advection should keep the
lower atmosphere fairly well mixed overnight and result in any
dips into MVFR thresholds being rather temporary and primarily
confined to passing showers. /Neuman

&&

.MARINE...Strong Gale Force winds to low end Storm Force winds
are materializing across the waters this morning. These winds are
occurring ahead of a cold front that is dropping southeastward
across the waters. The front is currently pushing through the
waters off Cape Lookout and should continue to shift southward
for the next several hours. Seas have spiked up into the 18-23 ft
range, but should subside a few feet temporarily as winds back
off behind the front. Nonetheless, a westerly swell pushing 17-19
ft should push into the waters later this afternoon and evening
so expect seas to climb back up slightly. Expect primarily Small
Craft Advisory level wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt behind the front,
which should last well into Sunday. Unsettled weather continues
into next week with more info in the afternoon update.

BEACH HAZARDS...A beach hazards statement is in effect beginning
this evening for Sunday and Monday as an approximately 18 ft at
14 second westerly swell pushes ashore. This will result in an
increased risk of sneaker waves along the coast. /Neuman

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for Cascades in Lane
     County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

     High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Oregon Coast.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Willamette Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-South
     Willamette Valley.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM PST Sunday for South Washington
     Cascades.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Waters from
     Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Columbia River
     Bar.

     Storm Warning until noon PST today for Coastal waters from
     Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 nm.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1016 AM PST SAT DEC 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST I-5 BRIDGE NB           45.62N 122.67W
12/11/2021  M50 MPH          CLARK              WA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND GUST. WEST SOUTHWEST
            WIND 29 MPH GUST TO 50 MPH.

0132 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE HEBO              45.21N 123.75W
12/11/2021  M58 MPH          YAMHILL            OR   MESONET

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND GUST. WEST SOUTHWEST
            WIND 25 MPH GUST TO 58 MPH.

0400 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW GARIBALDI         45.57N 123.96W
12/11/2021  M59 MPH          TILLAMOOK          OR   MESONET

            SOUTH WIND 44 MPH GUST TO 59 MPH.

1231 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY            44.98N 124.01W
12/11/2021  M61 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            FIRST QUALIFYING GUST. SSW WIND 16 MPH GUST
            TO 61 MPH.

0147 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE YACHATS            44.29N 124.08W
12/11/2021  M58 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND. SSW WIND 17 MPH GUST
            TO 58 MPH.

0220 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST YAQUINA BAY BRIDGE      44.62N 124.06W
12/11/2021  M62 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND GUST. WINDS 37 MPH
            GUST TO 62 MPH.

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW SOUTH BEACH       44.61N 124.07W
12/11/2021  M63 MPH          LINCOLN            OR   MESONET

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND GUST. SOUTH WIND 51
            MPH GUST TO 63 MPH.

1144 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W ASTORIA             46.19N 123.85W
12/10/2021  M58 MPH          PZZ210             OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FIRST QUALIFYING WIND GUST. SOUTHWEST WINDS
            48 MPH GUST 58 MPH.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E CANNON BEACH        45.90N 123.87W
12/11/2021  M1.81 INCH       CLATSOP            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 9 AM.

0530 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEAR ALBERTA PARK       45.56N 122.65W
12/11/2021                   MULTNOMAH          OR   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN - DIAMETER AROUND 6+ INCHES.

0641 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW MCMINNVILLE       45.21N 123.23W
12/11/2021  M1.50 INCH       YAMHILL            OR   PUBLIC

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S AMBOY               45.89N 122.45W
12/11/2021  M1.04 INCH       CLARK              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COUGAR                  46.05N 122.30W
12/11/2021  M2.83 INCH       COWLITZ            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 930 AM-930 AM.

&&