River Flood Warning 35, NWS Portland, OR

469 
WGUS86 KPQR 150555
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
955 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

For the Nw Oregon / Sw Washington Coast...including Rosburg...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Monday afternoon at 200 PM PST.

&&


WAC069-152200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0035.211115T0556Z-211117T0120Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211115T0556Z.211116T0000Z.211116T1920Z.UU/
955 PM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Grays River near Rosburg.

* WHEN...Until Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 11.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 14.0 feet tomorrow afternoon.
    It will then fall below flood stage late Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.0 feet on 11/23/2017.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

Weagle

747 
WGUS86 KPQR 151821
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1021 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

For the Nw Oregon / Sw Washington Coast...including Rosburg...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and 
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 430 PM PST.

&&


WAC069-160030-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-211116T1421Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211116T0221Z.211116T0600Z.211116T0821Z.UU/
1021 AM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Grays River near Rosburg.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 AM PST Monday the stage was 11.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 12.5 feet late this evening. It
    will then fall below flood stage just after midnight tonight.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

ab

166 
WGUS86 KPQR 152340
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
340 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

For the Nw Oregon / Sw Washington Coast...including Rosburg...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and 
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 1100 PM PST.

&&


WAC069-160830-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-211116T1326Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211115T2156Z.211116T0000Z.211116T0726Z.UU/
340 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Grays River near Rosburg.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 12.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.5
    feet late this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    tonight.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

ab

750 
WGUS86 KPQR 160329
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
729 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

WAC069-160430-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-211116T0329Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.211115T2156Z.211116T0600Z.211116T0726Z.UU/
729 PM PST Mon Nov 15 2021

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED THIS EVENING...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 11.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will continue to recede through the
    evening.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
944 AM PST Sun Nov 14 2021

.UPDATE...The short term wind forecast has been updated to reflect
stronger conditions across the central and northern Willamette Valley
as well beaches and headlands along the coast Monday morning into
Monday afternoon. Hi-res models as well as ensemble guidance are
showing stronger winds with the frontal passage across the region
Monday morning. Southerly winds will persist this evening and ramp up
overnight as the cold front drops south amplifying winds along the SW
Washington coast around 8 AM Monday. A High Wind Watch has been
issued for wind gusts between 50 to 60 mph along beaches and
headlands across the SW Washington, NW Oregon coasts Monday morning
through Monday afternoon. If models persist in strengthening this
front this could be upgraded to a warning this afternoon. Gusty
southerly winds will pick up across the interior bringing the Central
Willamette Valley as well as the Portland-Vancouver metro up to wind
advisory criteria. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible in the Central
Willamette Valley. Winds will subside in the evening but will
continue to be breezy.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An area of moderate to heavy rain associated with an
atmospheric river will largely remain north of the region for the
remainder of the weekend before sliding southeastward across the
region rather quickly on Monday. Snow returns briefly to the
Cascades late Monday. Cooler and drier weather
will return midweek before additional storm systems are possible
later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Moist southwest flow continues
into the region this morning associated with a broad trough over the
northeast Pacific.  Light rain continues at the coast and over
the higher elevations of northern half of the CWA. With the warm
front well north over western WA mild temperatures in the mid 50s to
low 60s in the lowlands and low 50s in the mountains. Moderate
southwest winds at the mid levels continue to usher in moist Pacific
air into the region. TPW analysis from NESDIS show TPW values around
1.3" to the coast. Most of the rain has been light, but
orographically favored areas in the Willapa Hills and north Oregon
coast range 0.1" to 0.15" rain per hour. Abernathy RAWS in western
Cowlitz county had 1.61" rain past 12 hour with Huckleberry RAWS a
close second at 1.24".	Rain rates should taper off some later today
as the upper trough begins to dig, backing the flow.  This trough
will advance to the PacNW through Monday, pushing a cold front
through the CWA Monday afternoon.  Rain rates will pick up again
later tonight and peak later Monday morning and afternoon. Current
QPF expectation are 1.5" to 2.25" for the Willapa Hills should be
enough to push the Gray River at Rosburg to minor flood stage later
Monday afternoon or evening. A flood watch for that area is in
effect.  The north Oregon coast should get a period of heavy rain,
but at this time looks to be brief as the cold front will pass
through rather quickly. So currently not expecting river flooding
there, but could see some local creeks or road flooding issues
Monday afternoon.

Snow levels will take a dive from above 7000 ft today to around
2000-3000 ft by Monday evening in the wake of the cold frontal
passage. It appears the bulk of the precipitation associated with
this front will fall as rain at the Cascades passes, but it should
changeover to snow at the passes before turning more showery in
nature Monday evening as the pcpn taper off.

It'll be windy with this system as some model scenarios suggest
prefrontal winds will strengthen sufficiently and pressure gradients
will be open enough to result in low end high wind gusts of 60 mph
along at least the beaches and headlands along the coast,
particularly north of Tillamook Monday.  However, the majority of the
ensemble members suggest winds will remain below warning thresholds.
Will hold off on any wind highlights for now.

Surface high pressure then appears likely to build across the
northeast Pacific and Pacific Northwest late Monday night into
Tuesday. This should result in the area drying out. Temperatures
will be quite a bit cooler than the past few days with low
temperatures likely dropping down into the 30s Monday night.
-BMuhlestein/mh

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...Models and their
ensembles in general agreement a low amplitude shortwave ridge
traversing the region Tuesday night and Wednesday will give way to a
shortwave trough sliding into the Pacific Northwest around next
Thursday. This will result in the period of dry weather midweek with
temperatures remaining on the cool side likely giving way to a
fairly typical November valley rain and high mountain snow event
towards next Thursday. An additional storm system may impact the
region towards Saturday, but model and ensemble guidance suggests
there quite a few different outcomes in regards to its timing and
strength so have maintained a rather generic mid to late November
forecast with temperatures remaining near average and a chance for
valley rain and mountain snow.				/Neuman

&&

.AVIATION...Moist southwesterly flow riding up and over a low to
mid level warm front to our southwest will keep clouds and
occasional light rain across the higher terrain through 18z
Monday. This will bring mainly VFR conditions with occasional
MVFR conditions in the Willamette Valley through 18z Monday.
A mild and moist airmass moving into the coast will keep
conditions predominantly in LIFR and IFR thresholds through 18z
Monday. An atmospheric river ahead of a cold front will slide
southeastward across the area towards and shortly after 18z
Monday. This will result in conditions lowering into IFR and MVFR
thresholds for locations farther inland including most, if not
all, of our inland taf sites near or shortly after 18z Monday.
South to southwest winds will increase rather abruptly around 18z
Monday as well with gusts of 40 to 50 kt possible along the
coast and gusts of 30 to 40 kt possible inland.

For detailed  regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Moist southwesterly flow riding up and over
a low to mid level warm front to our southwest will keep clouds
and a few sprinkles around through 18z Monday. This will result
in southerly winds around 10-15 kt and predominantly VFR
conditions with only brief dips into MVFR thresholds. It should
be noted that a band of moderate to heavy rain will shift
southeastward across the area towards 18z Monday so expect
conditions to briefly drop into MVFR and IFR thresholds when it
does so. Southerly winds will also likely ramp up abruptly
towards 18z Monday with gusts likely climbing into the 25 to 35
kt range. /Neuman

&&

.MARINE...A stationary front remains north of the coastal waters
today. South-southwesterly winds around 20-25 kt will persist
through the day, and then ramp up tonight into Monday ahead of
the cold front. Strongest winds today will be across the northern
zones where gusts up to 30 kt are likely. A Gale Warning has been
issued for all coastal waters late Sunday night through Monday
morning. Hi resolution model guidance suggests coastal jet
conditions will be possible for a brief period between 8 am and
Noon on Monday. Strong southerly winds capable of producing gusts
around 40 to 45 kt will be likely. The frontal passage is
expected late Monday morning and pushing inland early Monday
afternoon. Expect gusty northwesterly winds behind the front
through Monday night. High pressure will build across the waters
on Tuesday resulting in a northerly wind pattern.

Combined seas of around 10 to 12 ft at 11 seconds across the
northern zones, and 7 to 9 ft across the central coastal waters,
are expected to persist into this evening. Seas will gradually
build tonight into Monday morning to around 15 ft. Steep and
choppy seas are expected driven by a strong southwesterly wind
wave. Seas will gradually subside Monday night to around 8 to 10
ft Tuesday. /DH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for Central
     Willamette Valley.

WA...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for South Washington Coast.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Columbia
     River Bar.

&&

www.weather.gov/portland

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