River Flood Warning 1, NWS Portland, OR

251 
WGUS86 KPQR 030307
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
707 PM PST Sat Jan 2 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 600 AM PST.

&&


WAC069-031400-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0001.210103T0831Z-210103T2051Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0345Z.210103T1200Z.210103T1948Z.UU/
707 PM PST Sat Jan 2 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* From late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At 5:15 PM PST Saturday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 8 PM this 
  evening, then crest near 12.5 feet by 4 AM Sunday. It will then 
  fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

26

631 
WGUS86 KPQR 030516
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
916 PM PST Sat Jan 2 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Sunday morning at 600 AM PST.

&&


WAC069-031415-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0001.210103T0831Z-210103T2051Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0600Z.210103T1948Z.UU/
916 PM PST Sat Jan 2 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* From late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At 8:15 PM PST Saturday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 15 feet by midnight. It 
  will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

26

422 
WGUS86 KPQR 031403
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
603 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Willapa River near Willapa affecting Pacific County.

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Oregon...

  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 1245 PM PST.

&&


WAC049-032045-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210103T2037Z/
/WILW1.1.ER.210103T1134Z.210103T1315Z.210103T1437Z.NO/
603 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Willapa River near Willapa.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 5:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 21.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* The river was near a crest early this morning. 
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage later 
  this morning and then continue to fall through the remainder of 
  the day.
* Impact...Above 21.0 feet, expect flooding of several roads along 
  the river, including Heckard Road. Portions of US Hwy 101 may be 
  flooded as well if flood crest corresponds to high tide. Also 
  expect minor flooding in Raymond.


&&

LAT...LON 4669 12375 4670 12373 4670 12371 4669 12370
      4669 12367 4665 12364 4658 12360 4658 12357
      4655 12351 4655 12347 4653 12347 4653 12352
      4655 12355 4655 12361 4658 12364 4665 12368
      4667 12370 4667 12374

$$

ORC057-040030-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210104T0027Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.210103T0801Z.210103T1200Z.210103T1827Z.UU/
603 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 5:30 AM PST Sunday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* The river crested at 13.4 feet at 4 am this morning.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this morning and continue to fall through the rest of the day.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, widespread lowland and dairy land 
  flooding begins. Sloughs north of the city, mainly Dougherty, 
  begin to overflow. Minor flooding begins in the business district 
  north of Tillamook and along Hwy 101, particularly during high 
  tide.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC069-040045-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210104T1313Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210104T0713Z.UU/
603 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until late tonight.
* At 5:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* The river crested at 15.0 feet 1 am Sunday morning.  
* Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late this evening.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

13

466 
WGUS86 KPQR 031623
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
823 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington and Oregon...

  Willapa River near Willapa affecting Pacific County.
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.
  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.
  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas. Most flood-related deaths and accidents 
occur in automobiles.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and 
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next statement will be issued by 1245 PM PST.

&&


WAC049-032045-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210103T2037Z/
/WILW1.1.ER.210103T1134Z.210103T1315Z.210103T1744Z.NO/
823 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Willapa River near Willapa.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 7:45 AM PST Sunday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested at 21.2 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage later 
  this morning.
* Impact...Above 21.0 feet, expect flooding of several roads along 
  the river, including Heckard Road. Portions of US Hwy 101 may be 
  flooded as well if flood crest corresponds to high tide. Also 
  expect minor flooding in Raymond.


&&

LAT...LON 4669 12375 4670 12373 4670 12371 4669 12370
      4669 12367 4665 12364 4658 12360 4658 12357
      4655 12351 4655 12347 4653 12347 4653 12352
      4655 12355 4655 12361 4658 12364 4665 12368
      4667 12370 4667 12374

$$

ORC057-032230-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210104T0027Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.210103T0801Z.210103T1200Z.210103T1827Z.UU/
823 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 7:30 AM PST Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested at 13.4 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late 
  this morning and continue falling to 6.9 feet early Wednesday 
  morning.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, minor flooding of low lying dairy and 
  pasture land north and east of Tillamook can be expected, 
  particularly during high tides.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC069-032230-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210104T1313Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210104T0713Z.UU/
823 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until late tonight.
* At 5:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested at 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river level is dropping slowly and will likely drop 
  below flood stage Sunday evening but remain near flood stage 
  Monday due to additional rainfall.
* Impact...Above 14.0 feet, expect widespread lowland flooding and 
  numerous flooded roads near Rosburg and Hwy 4. This includes the 
  roadway approaches to the Altoona Bridge over the Grays River.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

WAC015-032230-
/O.CON.KPQR.FL.W.0005.210103T1800Z-210104T0100Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210103T1249Z.210103T1549Z.210104T0431Z.NO/
823 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 7:49 AM PST Sunday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river is expected to crest near 22.5 feet later 
  this morning. It will then fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

ab

831 
WGUS86 KPQR 031957
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1157 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington and Oregon...

  Willapa River near Willapa affecting Pacific County.
  Wilson River near Tillamook affecting Tillamook County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.
  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

River forecasts are based on observed and forecast rainfall and 
temperatures, and they include current and planned reservoir 
releases. For the latest river stages and forecasts, visit 
weather.gov/portland.

The next statement will be issued by 6 PM PST.

&&


WAC049-032100-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-210103T1957Z/
/WILW1.1.ER.210103T1134Z.210103T1315Z.210103T1744Z.NO/
1157 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Willapa River near Willapa has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Willapa River near Willapa.
* At 11:30 AM PST Sunday the stage was 19.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has dropped below flood stage and will 
  continue dropping through Monday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4669 12375 4670 12373 4670 12371 4669 12370
      4669 12367 4665 12364 4658 12360 4658 12357
      4655 12351 4655 12347 4653 12347 4653 12352
      4655 12355 4655 12361 4658 12364 4665 12368
      4667 12370 4667 12374

$$

ORC057-032100-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-210103T1957Z/
/TLMO3.1.ER.210103T0801Z.210103T1200Z.210103T1827Z.UU/
1157 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Wilson River near Tillamook has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Wilson River near Tillamook.
* At 11:30 AM PST Sunday the stage was 11.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has dropped below flood stage and will 
  continue to drop through Monday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4548 12387 4549 12386 4548 12384 4548 12377
      4549 12371 4547 12370 4546 12375 4546 12384

$$

WAC015-040200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210104T1316Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210103T1249Z.210103T1749Z.210104T0716Z.NO/
1157 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* Until late tonight.
* At 11:34 AM PST Sunday the stage was 22.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested this morning at 22.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall slowly through the day and drop 
  below flood stage Sunday night.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

WAC069-040200-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210104T0534Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210103T2334Z.UU/
1157 AM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until this evening.
* At 11:15 AM PST Sunday the stage was 12.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The river crested this morning at 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall slowly and drop below flood stage 
  late this afternoon.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

ab

850 
WGUS86 KPQR 040156
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
556 PM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Cowlitz River at Kelso affecting Cowlitz County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight by 3 AM PST.

&&


WAC015-041045-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-210104T1038Z/
/KELW1.1.ER.210103T1249Z.210103T1749Z.210104T0438Z.NO/
556 PM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until just after midnight 
tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cowlitz River at Kelso.
* Until late tonight.
* At 5:34 PM PST Sunday the stage was 21.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 
  at 5:34 PM PST Sunday was 22.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to remain around 21.5 feet this 
  evening. It will then fall below flood stage late this evening.
* Impact...Above 21.5 feet, flooding of several low lying and 
  secondary roads begins, including the Cowlitz Gardens 
  neighborhood, along with flooding of pasture and lowland upstream 
  of Kelso.


&&

LAT...LON 4621 12292 4621 12290 4620 12290 4619 12289
      4618 12289 4613 12290 4611 12288 4610 12290
      4613 12294

$$

WAC069-041400-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210105T0446Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210105T0345Z.UU/
556 PM PST Sun Jan 3 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until Monday evening.
* At 5:15 PM PST Sunday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river has fallen below flood stage early this evening, but 
  additional rain will result in the river rising again late this 
  evening through Monday morning.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just 
  after midnight tonight to a crest of 12.8 feet late Monday 
  morning. It will then fall below flood stage Monday evening.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

TJ

321 
WGUS86 KPQR 041101
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
301 AM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 300 PM PST.

&&


WAC069-042315-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210104T2330Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210104T1939Z.UU/
301 AM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until this afternoon.
* At 2:15 AM PST Monday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage this 
  morning to a crest of 12.3 feet late this morning. It will then 
  fall below flood stage in the this afternoon and continue to fall 
  for the next few days.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

26

815 
WGUS86 KPQR 042140
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
140 PM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 730 PM PST.

&&


WAC069-050330-
/O.EXT.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210105T0330Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210104T1939Z.UU/
140 PM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is now in effect until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* Until this evening.
* At 1 pm PST Monday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding will continue.
* Forecast...The river is expected to crest near 12.5 feet this 
  afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage later this evening.
* Impact...Above 12.0 feet, expect some flooding of roads along and 
  near the Grays River, including roadway approaches to the Altoona 
  Bridge over the Grays, and portions of Covered Bridge Road, 
  Barr-Durrah Road, and Loop Road near Rosburg and Hwy 4.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

29

484 
WGUS86 KPQR 050223
FLSPQR

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
623 PM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Grays River near Rosburg affecting Wahkiakum County.

WAC069-050330-
/O.CAN.KPQR.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-210105T0223Z/
/GRRW1.1.ER.210103T0202Z.210103T0900Z.210104T1939Z.UU/
623 PM PST Mon Jan 4 2021

...The Flood Warning for the Grays River near Rosburg has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Grays River near Rosburg.
* At 5:15 PM PST Monday the stage was 11.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river has fallen below flood stage this evening, and will 
  continue to lower tonight and Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.2 feet Thursday 
  afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 4632 12368 4633 12368 4636 12361 4636 12358
      4637 12356 4636 12355 4634 12358 4634 12361
      4631 12366

$$

TJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
155 PM PST Sat Jan 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...An active weather pattern will continue through at least
the middle of next week. A cold front moves onshore late this evening
with increasing rain and wind. Another system impacts the area Sunday
and Sunday night, followed by addtional weather systems through
mid-week. A brief break in the action is expected Wednesday night or
Thursday, but a return to wet conditions is likely Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday...Early afternoon GOES-17 water
vapor imagery revealed an upper level low pressure area just west of
Hadai Gwaii with an extensive moisture feed across the Pacific into
the Pacific Northwest fed by a strong west upper level jet.

Wind is the first weather concern. The 12Z 4km WRF-GFS has backed off
slightly regarding coastal wind. The 12Z run shows a swath of 50 kt
10m wind gusts along the coast 03Z Sun. By 06Z, this 50-kt core is
located from KTMK to K6S2. There is a dramatic wind shift associated
with the cold front immediately behind the south to southwesterly
wind core max. The current high wind warning timing for the coast
looks on track, but max wind gusts may end up a little lower than
forecast. The WRF-GFS and 19Z HRRR 80m wind product indicate 35-40 kt
gusts this evening through midnight for the Willamette Valley, mainly
south of KSLE. South to southwest wind ramps up in the north
Willamette Valley early this evening and gradually works south
through the remainder of the evening. The HRRR 80m wind gust product
and NBM wind gust forecast suggest 25-35 kt gusts for Clark County.
Will maintain the current advisory at this time. Wind speeds will
quickly drop off behind the cold front. Expect the cold front to
reach KAST around 06Z Sun, KPDX 09Z and KEUG 10Z to 111Z.

The other weather concern will be precipitation and potential hydro
issues. The ECMWF Precipitable water ensemble mean valid 00Z Sun
shows 1.0 to 1.2 inches. Combine this with 50-70 kt 850 mb southwest
flow into the Oregon Coast Range and southwest Washington Willapa
Hills and the result in impressive orographic lift. Per WPC Mesoscale
Precip Discussion, rainfall rates up to 0.5 inches per hour will be
possible on southwest-facing slopes in the higher terrain. In
addition, the GEFS ensemble mean Integrated Water Vapor Transport
(IVT) valid 06Z Sun shows a band of 500-700 kg/m/s directed into much
of the forecast area. The ECMWF IVT valid 06Z has slightly higher
values. Fortunately, this will be a fairly fast-moving cold front
such that these high rainfall rates should be short-lived. Rainfall
totals through early Sun morning will be on the order of 2 to 4
inches for the Oregon Coast Range, Willapa Hills and south Washington
Cascades. The expected QPF looks to be enough to result in minor
flooding on the Greys River. Thus, a flood watch has been issued.

Snow levels have risen to 5000 to 5500 feet early this afternoon per
the Astoria profiler. Snow levels are expected to lower to around
3000 feet overnight in the south Washington Cascades to near pass
level in the Lane County Cascades. However, the bulk of the
precipitation will have already occurred by the time snow levels
start falling. Expect total snowfall by Sun morning on the order of 6
to 12 inches above 5000 feet.

The cold front does not completely go away Sun. The remnants will
reside over southwest Oregon Sun morning and then transition to a
warm front Sun afternoon due to surface low development well
offshore. Rain will increase across the south part of the area late
Sun morning or early afternoon and then lift north. Another cold
front reaches the coast between 06Z and 12z Mon. The 12Z model runs
continue to struggle with the evolution and strength of the surface
low. The GFS has been insistent the past couple of runs developing a
compact sub-990 mb low pres center just west of Cape Arago 18Z Mon.
The NAM shows multiple low pres centers along the baroclinic
boundary, all of which are in the mid to upper 990s. The 12Z ECMWF
ensembles show a high variability regarding surface low placement and
strength. All of which leads to lower-than-average forecast
confidence. It appears a lull in the action occurs Mon night and most
of Tue, followed by another weather system nearing the coast late
Tue.

The long period (18-19 seconds) westerly swell is expected to build
early this morning then last into the afternoon before slowly losing
energy as the dominant wave period drops to 16 to 17 seconds. This
supports keeping the High Surf Advisory for today, and also brings
an enhanced threat of sneakers waves. Weishaar

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday...The active weather
pattern continues Tue night and Wed as the 12z deterministic runs are
in general agreement showing another weather system moving through
the area. Some of the model details differ, with the GFS suggesting
another possible coastal wind event while the ECMWF has a much weaker
pressure gradient. The ECMWF MSLP ensemble mean valid 00Z Thu
indicates weak ridging over the area while the deterministic GFS
shows a 980 mb low center near KUIL. Favor the ECMWF ensembles, which
line up reasonably well with the total mean 500 mb cluster analysis.
There is moderate confidence that Wed night through Thu will be
rather quiet, but not confidence enough to go completely dry. Model
discrepencies become more pronounced Fri and Sat. The 12Z model runs
show another frontal system moving into the area Fri. However, the
ECMWF shows a wide range of surface low solutions. The 12Z GFS
solution would suggest another possible high-wind event for the
coast. All in all, rather wet and mild conditions look to persist
through the extended period. Weishaar

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will get worse the rest of today as a
strong cold front approaches. Mix of MVFR and IFR along the
coast will persist, though cigs will lower a tad more. Southerly
winds will gust 40 to 50 kt, with strongest winds occurring
between 02Z and 07Z this evening. Cold front will push to Astoria
between 05Z and 06Z, then push gradually to the south to Newport
by 08Z. Winds will quickly ease behind the front, but MVFR CIGS
will persist rest of the night.

Farther inland, MVFR will dominate. Current VFR to south and east
of KMMV to KUAO line will gradually fall to MVFR by 02Z as rain
spreads farther southward. Will remain mostly MVFR overnight into
early Sun. Expect south winds gusting 25 to 35 kt at times for
most interior lowlands of Willamette Valley this evening, with
strongest winds between 03Z and 08Z. Also, expect southerly
gusts 40 to 45 kt over the higher ridges of Coast range and
Cascades through 08Z.

For detailed regional Pac NW weather information,
go online to:	       http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR will persist tonight, with rain
through midnight. Will maintain breezy south winds, with gusts
20 to 30 kt at times through 08Z. Still think strongest of those
winds will be between 03Z and 07Z as cold front draws closer to
the region. Winds will ease quickly behind the front after
midnight. MVFR will persist through 14Z, with gradually
improvement to VFR with broken clouds Sun am.	   /Rockey

&&

.MARINE...Deep low pressure over the southeast Gulf of Alaska
will persist for next several days, maintaining rather active
weather on the coastal waters.

Strong cold front offshore will push to the Washington coast
later this evening. As of 2 pm, southerly winds gusting 35 to 45
kt on the coastal waters, with seas running 20 to 21 feet. As
the front draws bit closer, should see boost in the winds, as
gradients tighten and strong winds aloft arrive. Current
expectation of storm force winds looks reasonable, so no changes.
Gusts 45 to 50 kt this evening. Cold front will drop to Astoria
between 9 and 10 pm, pushing southward and reaching Newport
around midnight, and past Florence by 1 or 2 am. Winds will
ease quickly behind the front. Seas will stay at 20 to 25 ft
range this evening, peaking between 8 pm and midnight.

Afterwards, winds much less overnight, with seas subsiding.
But, still a lot of long period westerly swell offshore, so will
maintain seas at 17 to 20 ft overnight through next several days.

More tranquil later tonight and Sunday, as region sits between
fronts. Warm front to the south will lift back to the north later
Sun afternoon and Sun night, with another round of strong gales.
May have to watch this, as models suggest some potential of storm
force gusts Sun night, especially south of Cascade Head. No
headlines yet, as have enough with current weather, but overnight
shifts will likely issue new gales or storm watch for Sun night.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern
     Oregon Cascades.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Sunday for Cascades in Lane County.

     Wind Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central Willamette
     Valley-Greater Portland Metro Area-South Willamette Valley.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Central Oregon
     Coast-North Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Central Oregon
     Coast-North Oregon Coast.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for South
     Washington Cascades.

     Wind Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Greater Vancouver
     Area.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for South
     Washington Coast.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for South Washington
     Coast.

PZ...Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PST Sunday for
     coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out
       60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for coastal waters
       from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST Sunday night for
       Columbia River Bar.

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