Gale Warning 48, NWS Portland, OR

900 
WHUS76 KPQR 201036
MWWPQR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
236 AM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

PZZ255-275-202100-
/O.CON.KPQR.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-211220T2100Z/
Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM-
Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM-
236 AM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...


* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts
  up to 35 kt and seas building to 14 to 16 ft at 14 seconds.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 
  NM and Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 
  NM.

* WHEN...Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Monday. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ210-202345-
/O.NEW.KPQR.SC.Y.0225.211220T2300Z-211221T0400Z/
Columbia River Bar-
236 AM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PST THIS EVENING...


* WHAT...Rough bar conditions expected.


  - GENERAL SEAS...Seas 4 to 6 ft early this morning building to 
    7 to 9 ft late this afternoon and early this evening before 
    subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late Monday night into Tuesday. 

  - FIRST EBB...Around 530 AM Monday. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

  - SECOND EBB...Strong. Around 515 PM Monday. Seas 9 to 11 ft 
    with breakers. 

.

* WHERE...In the Main Channel of the Columbia River Bar.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft 
  especially when navigating in or near harbor entrances.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Small craft should use extreme caution when navigating in or near
harbor entrances.

&&

$$

PZZ250-270-202345-
/O.CON.KPQR.SC.Y.0223.000000T0000Z-211221T0600Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out
10 NM-
Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to
60 NM-
236 AM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...


* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt becoming
  southerly from the Columbia River mouth southward and seas
  building to 9 to 11 ft at 10 seconds.

* WHERE...Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 
  10 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to 
  Cascade Head OR out 10 NM.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/portland

203 
WHUS76 KPQR 202041
MWWPQR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
1241 PM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

PZZ255-275-210945-
/O.CAN.KPQR.GL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-211220T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KPQR.SC.Y.0226.211220T2041Z-211221T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 NM-
Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM-
1241 PM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT..
...GALE WARNING HAS ENDED...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 15 to 20 kt, with gusts up to 25
  kt through late evening. Winds will be ease a bit more
  overnight. Seas mostly 9 to 12 ft at 10 seconds, with higher
  seas farther offshore. 

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR out 10 
  NM and Waters from Cascade Head to Florence OR from 10 to 60 
  NM.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions may be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

PZZ210-210600-
/O.EXT.KPQR.SC.Y.0225.211220T2041Z-211221T0600Z/
Columbia River Bar-
1241 PM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Rough bar conditions expected.

  - GENERAL SEAS...mostly 3 to 5 ft. 

  - FIRST EBB...Strong ebb around 515 pm Monday. Seas 11 ft with 
    breakers.

  - SECOND EBB...Around 6 am Tuesday. Seas 9 ft with breakers 
    possible.
 
* WHERE...In the Main Channel of the Columbia River Bar.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft 
  especially when navigating in or near harbor entrances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Small craft should use extreme caution when navigating in or near
harbor entrances.

&&

$$

PZZ250-270-210945-
/O.EXT.KPQR.SC.Y.0223.000000T0000Z-211221T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out
10 NM-
Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to
60 NM-
1241 PM PST Mon Dec 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 10 to 20 kt, with gusts up to 
  25 kt through late evening. Winds will be ease a bit more 
  overnight. Seas 9 to 12 ft at 10 seconds, with higher seas 
  farther offshore. 

* WHERE...Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 
  10 to 60 NM and Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to 
  Cascade Head OR out 10 NM.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/portland

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
1120 AM PST Sun Dec 19 2021

Updated headlines and aviation discussion.

.SYNOPSIS...A stalled frontal zone continues to produce a band of
heavy precipitation across portions of NW Oregon, along with some
areas of wet snow north of Salem. Any additional snow accumulations
for the lowlands will be light today, except perhaps near the
Columbia Gorge. The front will spread rain and milder air aloft back
northward across the region today through Monday, but easterly flow
will keep cold air locked into the Hood River Valley and the Columbia
Gorge. This will likely lead to substantial snowfall in the Hood
River Valley, the Central Columbia Gorge, and the Cascades Mt Hood
northward today through Monday. Low pressure is expected to remain
offshore for much of the week, pivoting disturbances north across the
forecast area for periods of rain. Easterly flow will persist,
maintaining at least some threat of freezing or frozen precip in the
Gorge and Hood River Valley for much of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...It has been quite the dynamic
night weather-wise across NW Oregon and portions of SW Washington, as
all the necessary ingredients came together at just the right time
for a 20-30 mile wide band of wet snow down to the valley floors.
This got a lot of attention overnight, as this band of wet snow
developed right across the Portland metro area. Impacts have
generally been minor but nonzero, as roads in town have mostly
remained wet with a few exceptions. The snow is almost entirely
supported by heavy precipitation rates within the frontal band.
Outside of the frontal band with lower snow levels, snow levels are
mostly around 2000 feet north of the front, and 5000 feet or higher
to the south of the front.

The heavy precipitation rates are the result of strong
frontogenetical forcing as mild subtropical air to the south of the
front receives pushback from cool high pressure building southward
into Washington. This setup changes little over the next 24-36 hours,
though models show good agreement in the cold air giving way just
enough to push the front slowly northward west of the Cascades,
likely ending the lowland snow threat for the Willamette Valley and
the I-5 corridor in SW Washington. Winter Weather Advisories are set
to expire at 6 AM for the Vancouver area and 8 AM for the northern
and central Willamette Valley. Will make no changes to this, as
lowland snow reports are becoming fewer and further between, and most
locations that had fallen to 32 degrees have since climbed a degree
or two.

Cold air will be more stubborn east of the Cascades, as cold high
pressure over the lower British Columbia mainland continues to supply
low-level cold advection through the Okanagan valley. Weak upper
ridging over the Great Basin and the Interior Northwest will also
allow the eastside cold pool to build or re-establish each night
under good radiational cooling. All this seems to point to a healthy
supply of cold air to cause winter precip type challenges for the
east slopes of the Cascades, Hood River Valley, and the Columbia
Gorge the next several days. If anything, the UW WRF 4km model and
the 00z EC Ensemble mean suggest the air mass getting colder at The
Dalles through tonight. Meanwhile, precipitation will be increasing
as the area of strongest frontogenetical forcing retreats into the
Columbia Gorge.

Models are notorious for struggling to adequately portray just how
much snow can occur the Hood River Valley in this type of scenario.
That said, the higher resolution models seem to be doing a decent job
of it. These models are likely driving the higher chances of high-end
snow totals for the Hood River Valley shown in the latest runs of the
NBM. For instance, NBM 4.1 suggests a 27 percent chance of 12 or more
inches of snow in Parkdale by Monday morning - and this may actually
be on the conservative side. Therefore we have the confidence to
issue Winter Storm Warnings for the Cascades north of roughly Mt
Hood, the Hood River Valley, and central portions of the Columbia
Gorge, including Hood River proper. For now, our Winter Storm
Warnings show 4 to 8 inches of snow by midday Monday near river level
around Hood River, 6 to 12 inches above 500 feet, and 8 to 16 inches
for the Upper HR Valley. The Cascades north of Mt Hood stand to see 1
to 2 feet of snow by midday Monday, especially above 4000 feet. Snow
levels will be considerably higher south of Mt Hood, cutting down on
snow totals south of Highway 26. As the warmer air aloft chips away
at the low-level cold air, snow will likely change to a period of
freezing rain at some point for these areas - most guidance suggests
this happens some time Monday. Will likely need additional advisories
beyond Monday as the threat becomes clearer.

Not to be forgotten in all the talk about snow is the threat of
flooding associated with the heaviest rainfall rates, now generally
Salem southward. Rainfall totals over the past 6 hours have generally
been in the 0.50 to 1.00" range across this area...enough to cause
nuisance issues but not yet significant flooding. Probabilistic NBM
guidance suggests another 2 inches of rain could easily fall in this
same area, especially in the Coast Range and Cascades. This may start
to drive some coastal rivers close to flood stage as this event
unfolds - hence the Flood Watch appears to be in good shape for these
areas. The heaviest rain has thus far missed the burned areas of most
concern, but will need to watch for the potential of debris flows
particularly in the Beachie Creek, Riverside, Lionshead, and Echo
Mountain burned areas.

The forecast area looks to be between weather systems much of Monday
night and Tuesday, as shortwave ridging passes overhead. This should
allow the forecast area to dry out somewhat, but will also allow
restoration of the cold pool east of the Cascades. As a result,
freezing rain or snow may be a threat in and near the Columbia Gorge
as the next frontal system spreads precip back into the area Tuesday
night.	Weagle

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Friday...With diverging model
solutions there isn't too much confidence moving into the long term
forecast. Over the last 24 hours the 12Z EC has become more inline
with the 12Z GEM solution; these solutions show a deep upper level
trough moving south along the B.C. coastline and shifts inland near
Vancouver Island early Thursday morning. While the 12Z GFS shows the
trough staying offshore and dropping south towards northern
California Thursday morning. The latest 12Z run of the GEM is
stronger, slower and drops the trough axis right across the Pacific
NW into Thursday morning. The associated surface front will move on
to the north Oregon coast Wednesday afternoon [according to the GEM]
and bring a cool and showery pattern across the area Thursday.
Temperatures aloft will drop to around -3 to -5 C at 850 mb Thursday
which will aid in dropping snow levels to around 2500 to 3000 ft by
Thursday. With post frontal showers, snow will have a good chance
for accumulating up in the Cascades.

A secondary, weak front will move through the northwesterly flow and
provide enough lift to bring another round of heavier showers Friday.
Snow levels will also progressively drop Friday as the arctic air
mass over Canada pushes south. Overnight lows across Willamette
Valley sites will likely dipping into the mid 30s. Snow levels will
drop to around 2000 ft and potentially 1500 ft by end of day Friday.
NBM shows a 10-15% chance that lowlands in the northern Willamette
Valley will see very light (around 0.1 inches) snow through the day
Friday. 			  /BMuhlestein

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs: Expect a mix of conditions between MVFR to
IFR across much of the area as a complex system brings a mix of
weather conditions for all terminals. The cold front that
dropped southeast overnight stalled half way across the county
warning area along a line from Lincoln City to Hood River this
morning. This produced widespread rain to the south and a snow
to rain-snow mix to the north. Because the front was stationary
for a prolonged period of time flooding has occurred in
Willamette Valley counties south of Clark and north of Lane. Non-
towered terminals may have standing water.

The front is now undulating north as a warm front pushes up from
the south. Areas of heavy rain will cause deteriorating
conditions. This has been problematic across the Portland metro
for the last couple hours and will continue through the day. Due
to the placement of the low offshore a complex wind pattern will
occur as the axis setups across the region overnight Sunday into
Monday. Expect gusty south winds along the coast tonight; KONP
will likely seeing gusts around 25 kt. Inland terminals south of
KUAO will see northeasterly winds as the low approaches
overnight. Across the metro, expect to see gusty east winds out
of the Columbia River Gorge as a temperature gradient builds
across the Cascades. Wind gusts up to 30 kt are possible in KTTD.
East winds will also drop temperatures in the Upper Hood River
Valley but areas west of Multnomah Falls should remain above
freezing. Snow levels west of Multnomah Falls will reach 5000 ft
by 18Z Monday whereas areas to the east will continue to be
around 1500 ft. As the warm sector of the low pushes northeast
it will increase chances for freezing rain east of Cascade Locks
above 500 ft. However, this warm air aloft isn't all that
pronounced so if there are any ice accumulations in this area it
should be fairly small or it could all be snow.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go
online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR ceilings will dominate through the
forecast period as a warm front pushes north. IFR conditions are
possible with heavier showers. East winds out of the Gorge will
trend around 10-15 kt with the potential for 30 kt gusts near
KTTD. Overnight temperatures will drop to near freezing Sunday
night but no snow is expected as they rise to near 5000 ft by 18Z
Monday. -BMuhlestein

&&

.MARINE...Rain has eased this morning as the cold front that
brought slightly more active weather has moved inland and east. A
broad area of low pressure though will advance towards the
California Coast Monday which will remain nearly stationary
through the middle of the week. This means there will be little
change in the overall weather pattern for the next few days.
Winds will be a bit more dynamic as they become southerly this
afternoon increasing from 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt to 15
to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. In the central waters though a
tighter pressure gradient will cause those southerly winds to
amplify more with winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A Gale
Warning has been issued for PZZ275 and PZZ255 from this afternoon
through Monday morning. The northern waters will remain under a
Small Craft Advisory as winds will likely be less intense. Winds
will once again ease Monday evening.

Will continue to see a westerly swell around 7 to 10 ft at 12
seconds through Monday morning. With the stronger winds in place
expecting an enhanced southerly wind wave which will aid in
amplifying the combined seas. By Monday afternoon the low in the
eastern Pacific will intensify slightly and create a new
southerly fresh swell with dynamic fetch. The southerly swell
will be higher around 10 to 12 ft at 11 seconds in the central
waters, and closer to 10 ft at 11 seconds in the northern waters.
Will still see that secondary westerly swell though around 3 to 5
ft at 13 seconds.     -Muessle

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Monday for Central Columbia
     River Gorge-Northern Oregon Cascades-Upper Hood River
     Valley.

     Flood Watch through Monday morning for Central Coast Range of
     Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette
     Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette
     Valley.

WA...Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Monday for Central Columbia
     River Gorge-South Washington Cascades.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Monday for coastal waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm.

     Gale Watch from 3 PM PST this afternoon through Monday morning
     for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for coastal
     waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Columbia
     River Bar.

&&

&&

&&

www.weather.gov/portland

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
941 AM PST SUN DEC 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     SNOW             1 W AMBOY               45.89N 122.47W
12/19/2021  M0.8 INCH        CLARK              WA   PUBLIC

0308 AM     SNOW             3 W HILLSBORO           45.54N 123.00W
12/19/2021  E0.5 INCH        WASHINGTON         OR   PUBLIC

0409 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW WEST SALEM         44.94N 123.07W
12/19/2021  M1.50 INCH       POLK               OR   PUBLIC

0959 PM     SNOW             2 S GRESHAM             45.47N 122.43W
12/18/2021  E0.5 INCH        MULTNOMAH          OR   PUBLIC

0907 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KEIZER                  45.00N 123.03W
12/19/2021  M1.40 INCH       MARION             OR   PUBLIC

0423 AM     SNOW             2 W SAINT HELENS        45.86N 122.84W
12/19/2021  E0.3 INCH        COLUMBIA           OR   PUBLIC

1215 AM     SNOW             2 W DAMASCUS            45.42N 122.51W
12/19/2021  M0.3 INCH        CLACKAMAS          OR   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1017 AM PST SUN DEC 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W MT TABOR            45.50N 122.63W
12/19/2021  M2.00 INCH       MULTNOMAH          OR   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1255 PM PST SUN DEC 19 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MAPLETON            44.03N 123.83W
12/19/2021  M2.30 INCH       LANE               OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TK