Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
221 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday.
An upper level low moves through the area this afternoon into
tomorrow morning. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon into early evening. Small hail and lightning are
expected. The biggest impact will be winds of 25 to 35 mph with
gusts of 50 mph plus with stronger thunderstorms this afternoon
into the early evening. We are in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms for this afternoon into evening for severe
thunderstorms with winds greater than 58 mph. The first wave of
thunderstorms is hitting Burly currently look at radar imagery and
a second wave or line of thunderstorms is back by Gooding Idaho. A
third line, which likely will be mostly showers and weaker when
it hits us, is back on the Idaho/Oregon line currently.

Lingering showers are expected into Saturday for our eastern
areas especially along the Wyoming border, with chances decreasing
throughout the day. Saturday night again offers some slight
chances for some showers and isolated thunderstorms for the
southeast highlands, driven by unstable conditions persisting
along the Utah border. Temperatures Saturday cool by about ten
degrees associated with a more west/northwest flow. This brings
more seasonable conditions back for the period and the start of
next week. An upper level trough works through Northern Montana
for Sunday into Monday, bringing chances for isolated rain showers
and thunderstorms for the Eastern and Southern Highlands, with
minimal impacts expected.
Wyatt

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Friday.
Expect an overall low impact period with overall dry conditions
and periodically breezy afternoons. Tuesday will be slightly
breezy in northwest flow. Wednesday into Thursday a dry trough
passes over northern Idaho. Wednesday and Thursday each afternoon
expect near critical relative humidity and near critical winds,
especially for the Central mountains and the Arco desert areas.
Models show another system late Thursday into Friday with moderate
winds and light precipitation across our northern areas. Expect
70 to 80s with cooler mountain temperatures through the period.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...Gusty winds and showers/storms are beginning to develop
across eastern Idaho. Winds in the 15-25 kt range, with higher
gusts, seem probable through about 11/02Z. After this time,
gradient winds will subside but thunderstorm outflow wind
potential will continue. Expecting thunderstorm potential to
increase over the next few hours and continue into the late
evening. Greatest concern will be for gusty winds in and around
thunderstorms. Localized MVFR/IFR reductions will be possible with
storms. As we move towards daybreak Saturday, conditions will
begin to improve with gradually clearing skies and precip moving
out of the region.
McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop
through the afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Red
Flag Warnings remain in effect for all of eastern Idaho until
10PM. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph will be possible with the
strongest of storms. Cooler weather is expected for the weekend
along with higher afternoon RHs so no fire weather concerns are
anticipated. Winds do look like they will become breezy on Monday
and continue into much of next week. Temperatures have been
trending up the last few forecasts so now looks like afternoon RHs
may hover near critical levels in spots so will have to monitor
for potential Red Flag concerns as we get a bit closer in time.
McKaughan

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...All air quality alerts have been lifted across
the area due to improved air quality conditions. The HRRR smoke
model shows improved air quality today with precipitation and
southerly flow.The model then shows slightly degraded air quality
in westerly flow early Saturday. However, when the upper flow
aloft becomes northwesterly by Saturday afternoon the model shows
improved air quality. That said, the northwesterly flow doesn't
look to last long. Models show westerly to southwesterly flow by
Sunday afternoon which will bring back smoke from California by
Sunday evening into Monday.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-
422-425-427-475-476.

&&

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