Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Mon night. Showers and thunderstorms
until late tonight with a frontal passage during the late evening.
We are still in an area of a marginal threat for thunderstorms.
Strongest thunderstorms if you believe the HRRR are tonight around
2100-2200 MDT in the Snake River plain, so an uneasy and unsettled
night weather-wise. The front will continue its eastward trek Sun
and poses a thunderstorm threat only over the ID-WY border. By
Mon, skies will clear and the temperature will be up 5 to 10
degrees for afternoon highs after a seasonally cool overnight.
Warming trend continues into the extended. With the upper level
ridge returning, wind will calm down Sun but get breezy again Mon
afternoon. Messick

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.
Through the entire extended period Idaho is under a trof. Occasion
short waves will move through the westerly flow, which will likely
becmome more northwesterly as the week progresses. Timing of these
short waves seems moot at this point, because they will be glancing
blows to the north resulting in little to no threat of precipitation
to Idaho through the period. Temperatures starting out relatively
cool will finally push to normal levels by about Thursday.
Deterministic GFS/ECMWF both show significant wave moving through
next Saturday. While this still may be too far east to provide any
wx, it should help keep temperatures from getting too warm.
Crawford

&&

.AVIATION...
Scatteered light shower activity affecting various parts of the
basin at this time, but some thunderstorms have already fired up
over the favored southeastern Idaho area. Showers are featured as
predominant wx at all TAFs this evening with the exception of SUN
where they become less likely as system swings through from west to
east tonight. Moisture will be deepest over the eastern highlands
overnight, with some signifncant rains expected there. Thus have
kept previous TAF depiction of MVFR cigs at DIJ after 05Z. Most
areas will be clear and dry before 12Z with VFR outlook for Sunday.
Only DIJ may still have some low level clouds to clear out first
thing after sunrise before going SKC.
Crawford

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms continue late tonight, some of them
strong to severe in outflow wind with areas of heavy rain
possible. Humid conditions will continue tonight and partially
into Sun, but really dry air starts entering the Salmon-Challis
NF and other Central Idaho Dispatch areas by then. This will
spread to the southeast by Mon, with a few low elevations
returning to below 15 percent. Mon is expected to see a return to
gusty wind, so depending on fuels, there may be some critical fire
weather conditions as early as that day. Lows continue to track
through southern Canada during the upcoming week, not enough to
bring any showers or thunderstorms except to perhaps the Targhee
NF and northern end of the Idaho Falls BLM. The main benefit is
that temperatures do not get really hot again until just beyond
the upcoming 7 day period. The drawback is that these lows will
bring breezy conditions while the landscape gets a chance to dry
out. Messick

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for IDZ422-425-427.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
649 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

IDZ061-220130-
Bear Lake Valley ID-
649 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Bear
Lake County through 730 PM MDT...

At 649 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Laketown, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bear Lake Idaho Portion, Dingle, Border Summit, Fish Haven and
Pegram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Bear Lake, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 11143 4231 11122 4234 11105 4200 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 40KT 4188 11135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

McKaughan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
955 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

IDZ055>057-220445-
Eastern Magic Valley ID-Raft River Region ID-
Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
955 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Cassia
County through 1045 PM MDT...

At 954 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oakley Reservoir, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Malta, Oakley Reservoir, Oakley, Elba, Mt Harrison, Bridge and City
Of Rocks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4212 11411 4230 11410 4237 11319 4208 11317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 271DEG 42KT 4221 11401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

McKaughan

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