Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
137 PM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
Quick forecast update and discussion this afternoon as active wx is
in progress. While cloud cover looked formidable earlier this AM,
widespread breaks developed by late AM allowing solid
destabilization with SBCAPE (instability/fuel) now over 500 J/kg. As
such, isolated t-storms have already initiated across most terrain
areas, and should increase and become more scattered over the next
hour or two, supporting the ongoing RED FLAG WARNING. Increased
monsoon moisture with PWATs in excess of 1.00" (well above average
for our area) and dew points in the 50s will support heavy downpours
and a localized flash flood risk, especially in terrain areas where
cells repetitively train or move over burn scars. The greatest risk
still appears to be across the Central Mntns, but cells across
Cassia County have already produced rainfall rates in excess of 0.5"
per hour, so all activity will need to be monitored closely. Gusty
winds and small hail will also be possible with the stronger cores.
High-res guidance supports storms ending this eve between 9-11 PM,
last up near Island Park.

Expect repeat performances with afternoon/eve t-storms Wed/Thurs. A
drier period begins Fri as the ridge to our SE flattens and monsoon
moisture gets shunted to the south, at least for a few days. Highs
will top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s each day. - KSmith

&&

.AVIATION...
Have vicinity thunderstorms at all TAF sites this afternoon and
evening. Activity more widespread than yesterday and better
chance any site could see a storm today. Main impact will be
outflow wind gusts of 30 knots or more. Thunderstorms again
possible on Wednesday. Winds outside storms in the 10 to 15 knot
sustained range this afternoon at BYi, PIH and DIJ. - GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning remains in effect his evening until 11 pm for
scattered thunderstorms. Other impacts is some of the storms will
produce localized heavy rain with potential flash flooding. There
will be isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as well. Much drier weather is expected by Friday with
minimum humidity likely well under 15 percent again with continued
hot temperatures. Dry conditions will continue through the
weekend with monsoonal moisture possibly returning early next
week. - GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-
422-425-427-475-476.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
434 PM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021

IDZ053-062>066-202330-
Centennial Mountains/Island Park ID-Big Hole Mountains ID-
Upper Snake River Plain ID-Teton Valley ID-Caribou Range ID-
Blackfoot Mountains ID-
434 PM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR RIRIE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
DRIGGS THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of thunderstorms
near Ririe, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Small hail, moderate to heavy rain, and wind gusts to 40 mph are
possible with these storms as they lift northeast into the Teton
Valley and Driggs area through 530 PM MDT.

Locations impacted include...
Driggs, Swan Valley, Felt, Victor, Tetonia and Pine Creek Pass.

LAT...LON 4327 11158 4339 11179 4398 11112 4392 11104
      4359 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 225DEG 20KT 4359 11142

Huston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
439 PM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021

IDZ052-053-064>067-202330-
Centennial Mountains/Island Park ID-Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-
Big Hole Mountains ID-Upper Snake River Plain ID-Teton Valley ID-
Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands ID-
439 PM MDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 438 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Kilgore to near Menan.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rexburg, Ashton, Idmon, Marysville, Sugar City, Teton, Parker, Hamer,
Drummond, Shotgun Village, Egin, Ponds Lodge, Kilgore, St Anthony,
Plano, Island Park Village, Macks Inn, Chester, Last Chance and
Island Park Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4380 11132 4374 11225 4453 11213 4452 11210
      4454 11207 4453 11203 4455 11203 4454 11198
      4456 11189 4456 11187 4451 11183 4456 11168
      4456 11155 4454 11151 4454 11146 4456 11151
      4460 11152 4462 11123 4457 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 269DEG 62KT 4449 11195 4377 11205

GK

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>